本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率 匯率變動(dòng) 貿(mào)易收支　出處：《中共山東省委黨�！�2012年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：匯率是一個(gè)國(guó)家在進(jìn)行國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)時(shí)最重要的綜合性價(jià)格指標(biāo)，在國(guó)際金融和國(guó)際貿(mào)易活動(dòng)中發(fā)揮著價(jià)格轉(zhuǎn)換職能，，是調(diào)節(jié)一國(guó)貿(mào)易收支的重要杠桿，它的變動(dòng)對(duì)一國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的平衡與國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的波動(dòng)都具有深刻的影響。因此，許多國(guó)家通過(guò)調(diào)整匯率來(lái)達(dá)到調(diào)節(jié)貿(mào)易收支的作用，從而一國(guó)匯率變動(dòng)的影響變得越來(lái)越重要，匯率變動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析一直是國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中重要的研究課題之一。自1994年中國(guó)匯率改革以來(lái)，由于東南亞金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)以及全球失衡背景下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的迅速發(fā)展，貿(mào)易順差的不斷擴(kuò)大，外匯儲(chǔ)備的劇增，使得人民幣相繼遭受了貶值和升值的壓力，最終中國(guó)在2005年7月重新實(shí)行匯率改革，實(shí)行以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度。自2005年至今，人民幣持續(xù)平穩(wěn)升值。匯率是一國(guó)參與國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的重要綜合性指標(biāo)，匯率的變化將直接影響一國(guó)的貿(mào)易收支，影響相關(guān)的產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，這一直是政界和學(xué)界關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)。 本篇論文主要從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面來(lái)分析人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)貿(mào)易收支的有關(guān)影響。本文主要由以下三部分： 第一部分首先對(duì)匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)一國(guó)貿(mào)易收支的影響進(jìn)行理論分析。從7個(gè)方面簡(jiǎn)述了匯率變動(dòng)影響貿(mào)易收支的理論發(fā)展歷程。首先通過(guò)重商主義代表人物托馬斯孟和大衛(wèi)休謨的理論引出匯率變化與對(duì)外貿(mào)易收支之間的關(guān)系，然后分別從彈性分析法、時(shí)滯理論、吸收分析法、乘數(shù)分析法以及貨幣分析法等經(jīng)典理論進(jìn)行綜述，從不同角度得出匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)一國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的作用機(jī)理。 第二部分是人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)貿(mào)易收支造成影響的實(shí)證分析。文章先根據(jù)現(xiàn)實(shí)數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)中國(guó)1994年匯率改革以來(lái)至2010年的人民幣各種匯率和中國(guó)的進(jìn)出口總額進(jìn)行回顧，并對(duì)二者之間的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行對(duì)照，分析出不符合經(jīng)典經(jīng)濟(jì)理論的數(shù)據(jù)。通過(guò)各種不同類(lèi)型的匯率比較，人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率最能夠反映出中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易水平，然后考察人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)進(jìn)出口額的影響，并重點(diǎn)就中國(guó)出口額因人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率波動(dòng)而發(fā)生變動(dòng)的現(xiàn)象分析原因。 第三部分是根據(jù)前兩部分的理論分析和實(shí)證分析，結(jié)合最近剛出臺(tái)的“十二五”規(guī)劃綱要中國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易部分，考慮到當(dāng)前人民幣升值壓力突出的實(shí)際，對(duì)中國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易提出對(duì)策和建議。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is the most important comprehensive price index when a country carries on international economic activities. It plays a role of price conversion in international finance and international trade activities and is an important lever to regulate a country's trade balance. Its changes have a profound impact on the balance of a country's foreign trade and the fluctuation of domestic economic activities. Therefore, many countries adjust the exchange rate to achieve the role of adjusting trade balance. As a result, the influence of exchange rate changes has become more and more important. The economic analysis of exchange rate changes has been one of the most important research topics in international economics and macroeconomics. Due to the outbreak of financial crisis in Southeast Asia and the rapid development of China's economic growth under the background of global imbalance, the continuous expansion of trade surplus and the sharp increase of foreign exchange reserves, the RMB has been subjected to the pressure of depreciation and appreciation one after another. Finally, in July 2005, China reintroduced the exchange rate reform and implemented a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. The exchange rate is an important comprehensive index for a country to participate in international economic activities. The change of exchange rate will directly affect a country's trade balance, related industrial development and macroeconomic growth. This has been the focus of political and academic attention. This paper mainly analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's trade balance from the theoretical and empirical aspects. This paper mainly consists of the following three parts: In the first part, the influence of exchange rate change on a country's trade balance is analyzed theoretically, and the development of the theory of exchange rate change affecting trade balance is described from seven aspects. Firstly, Thomas, the representative of mercantilism, is introduced. The theory of Mencius and David Hume leads to the relationship between exchange rate change and foreign trade balance. Then it summarizes the classical theories of elastic analysis, time-delay theory, absorption analysis, multiplier analysis and monetary analysis, respectively, and obtains the mechanism of exchange rate change on a country's foreign trade from different angles. The second part is the empirical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's trade balance. This paper reviews the RMB exchange rate from 1994 to 2010 and the total import and export volume of China, and compares the corresponding relationship between the two. Through the comparison of different types of exchange rate, the real effective exchange rate of RMB can best reflect the level of China's foreign trade. Then the effect of the fluctuation of RMB real effective exchange rate on China's import and export value is investigated, and the reason of the change of China's export value due to the fluctuation of RMB's real effective exchange rate is analyzed. The third part is based on the first two parts of the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, combined with the recently issued "12th Five-Year Plan" outline of the international economy and trade, considering the current pressure of RMB appreciation of the outstanding reality. Put forward countermeasures and suggestions to China's foreign trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共山東省委黨校
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.6

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 張健;人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)紡織品貿(mào)易收支影響研究[D];貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2013年

本文編號(hào)：1442558