本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣內(nèi)外價值偏離現(xiàn)象研究　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人民幣 內(nèi)外價值偏離 原因 匯率 通貨膨脹率

【摘要】：一國貨幣的價值一般有兩種不同的表現(xiàn)形式：一種是對內(nèi)價值,主要體現(xiàn)為貨幣在國內(nèi)的單位購買力,即所謂的價格；另一種是對外價值,主要表現(xiàn)為其能換取多少外幣,即所謂的匯率。按照傳統(tǒng)國際金融理論,一國貨幣的對內(nèi)、對外價值應(yīng)當(dāng)趨同,即成正比例地同升同貶。然而,進入21世紀(jì)以來,人民幣出現(xiàn)了以對外升值與對內(nèi)貶值并存為特點的內(nèi)外價值偏離現(xiàn)象。一方面,人民幣對外承受著巨大的升值壓力,尤其是巨額貿(mào)易順差壓力和發(fā)達(dá)國家的國際輿論壓力；另一方面,人民幣對內(nèi)卻表現(xiàn)出貶值的趨勢,不僅物價水平在長期“低迷”后突然全面上漲,股票證券和房地產(chǎn)等資產(chǎn)價格也被推高,人民幣對內(nèi)貶值在消費領(lǐng)域和投資領(lǐng)域雙雙突顯。加之全球流動性過剩以及美元不斷貶值的國際背景,這一現(xiàn)象不斷強化。人民幣內(nèi)外價值背離異象是我國目前外部經(jīng)濟和內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟同時失衡的階段性表現(xiàn),由于會影響貨幣政策的有效性以及經(jīng)濟的健康發(fā)展,所以必須謹(jǐn)慎對待這一問題。由此,為了我國制定出更有效的宏觀經(jīng)濟調(diào)控政策,繼續(xù)保持經(jīng)濟平穩(wěn)較快的發(fā)展,深入了解人民幣對外升值與對內(nèi)貶值并存的成因是至關(guān)重要的。本文既旨在從理論和實證兩個角度深入剖析該現(xiàn)象的原因,并提出相應(yīng)的宏觀政策建議。 本文首先對國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于人民幣對外升值和對內(nèi)貶值現(xiàn)象的相關(guān)研究成果進行分類回顧總結(jié)的基礎(chǔ)上,對人民幣匯率決定的經(jīng)典理論和三大國際貨幣體系進行了梳理。經(jīng)典理論主要有：“一價定律”、購買力平價、利率平價、國際收支理論、匯兌心理理論；三大國際貨幣體系是：國際金本位制、布雷頓森林體系、牙買加體系。 然后采用定性與定量相結(jié)合的研究方法,對影響人民幣匯率升值的因素、通貨膨脹的表現(xiàn)形式與成因、人民幣內(nèi)外價值偏離的原因進行了深入的分析與研究。第一,影響人民幣升值的因素主要有：我國經(jīng)濟的高速增長、經(jīng)常項目的巨額順差、資本與金融項目的巨額順差、外匯儲備量迅猛攀升、國內(nèi)外利差擴大以及人民幣升值心理預(yù)期等因素。第二,國內(nèi)通貨膨脹主要的表現(xiàn)形式有三種：消費物價指數(shù)CPI的上漲、投資資產(chǎn)(金融資產(chǎn)和實物資產(chǎn))價格的飆升以及長期為負(fù)數(shù)的實際利率。該輪通貨膨脹是由多種因素綜合促成的：①貨幣原因：外匯占款導(dǎo)致人民銀行發(fā)行過多的基礎(chǔ)貨幣,造成超額的貨幣供給；②經(jīng)濟原因：需求引致型通脹、成本推動型通脹、輸入型通脹和結(jié)構(gòu)型通脹和自然災(zāi)害等突發(fā)事件導(dǎo)致市場供給的減少。③制度原因：我國市場化改革不完善,不該過早市場化的領(lǐng)域過早交給了市場,造成國際大企業(yè)壟斷市場,并聯(lián)手操縱價格；相反,應(yīng)該市場化的領(lǐng)域改革卻相對停滯,大量資源受到國家的嚴(yán)格看管,不能進入市場滿足需求,無法消化富余資金。第三,從宏觀經(jīng)濟背景和新理論解釋兩方面闡述了人民幣內(nèi)外價值不協(xié)調(diào)的原因。①宏觀經(jīng)濟背景原因包括我國經(jīng)濟失衡(經(jīng)濟增長模式失衡、對外經(jīng)濟制度失衡)和世界經(jīng)濟失衡(國際貨幣體系失衡、國際價格體系失衡)。②新經(jīng)濟學(xué)理論解釋,主要有“雙效應(yīng)——三階段曲線”理論和巴拉薩——薩繆爾森效應(yīng)。前者認(rèn)為國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟失衡嚴(yán)重導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹與升值之間的互補效應(yīng)超過了替代效應(yīng),從而綜合表現(xiàn)出人民幣“內(nèi)貶外升”；后者認(rèn)為目前人民幣內(nèi)外偏離現(xiàn)象實際上是人民幣實際匯率升值的顯著表現(xiàn),這符合該效應(yīng)的基本思想：經(jīng)濟增長較快的國家,可貿(mào)易品部門勞動生產(chǎn)力提高將引起該國貨幣實際匯率的升值。 再接著運用2002年1月至2011年4月的相關(guān)月度數(shù)據(jù)進行了實證分析。主要采用平穩(wěn)性檢驗、Johansen協(xié)整檢驗、格蘭杰因果檢驗、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、方差分解,以及建立誤差修正模型作計量統(tǒng)計分析。各項檢驗結(jié)果如下：①平穩(wěn)性檢驗得出人民幣匯率E和消費價格指數(shù)CPI皆為一階單整序列。②協(xié)整檢驗輸出結(jié)果表明：在不考慮貨幣時間價值因素i的情況下,人民幣匯率和通貨膨脹率之間并不協(xié)整,即不存在長期均衡關(guān)系,說明人民幣內(nèi)外價值不具有趨同趨勢；在將貨幣的時間價值因素i考慮進來后,匯率、利率、通貨膨脹率之間存在協(xié)整,即匯率和通貨膨脹率之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,證明了人民幣內(nèi)外價值偏離的現(xiàn)象。③格蘭杰因果檢驗得出人民幣內(nèi)外價值之間的傳遞和轉(zhuǎn)換渠道在我國現(xiàn)行的經(jīng)濟制度下雙向不通暢,導(dǎo)致內(nèi)外價值不能趨同,購買力平價在我國并不適用。④脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)顯示E的結(jié)構(gòu)沖擊對CPI是長期負(fù)影響；CPI的結(jié)構(gòu)沖擊對E也是長期負(fù)影響。⑤方差分解示意圖顯示CPI對E的波動貢獻(xiàn)度大于E對CPI的波動貢獻(xiàn)度。⑥最后的向量誤差修正模型輸出結(jié)果加強了協(xié)整檢驗得出的結(jié)論,對外升值與通貨膨脹之間確實存在長期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,內(nèi)外價值偏離現(xiàn)象成為經(jīng)濟常態(tài)。 本文最后,在分析世界上幾大重要經(jīng)濟體的宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)的過程中,發(fā)現(xiàn)日本和德國兩大發(fā)達(dá)國家在20世紀(jì)60—90年代出現(xiàn)過與我國目前類似的貨幣價值偏離現(xiàn)象。因此,在吸取日本的失敗教訓(xùn)和學(xué)習(xí)德國的成功經(jīng)驗的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合本文的理論分析和實證結(jié)果提出了解決人民幣內(nèi)外價值不協(xié)調(diào)的政策建議,主要有以下幾方面： ①增強人民幣彈性,讓人民幣適度升值。一次足以消除當(dāng)前升值預(yù)期的人民幣升值可以緩解對外升值壓力,同時也能通過商品渠道、貨幣渠道和預(yù)期渠道來調(diào)節(jié)內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟失衡現(xiàn)狀,即抑制國內(nèi)的通貨膨脹。 ②根據(jù)斯旺的內(nèi)外均衡模型,我國緩解國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟失衡時應(yīng)搭配支出轉(zhuǎn)換政策和支出增減政策。在增強人民幣彈性,讓人民幣適度升值的同時,堅決維護貨幣政策獨立性。在近期繼續(xù)推行穩(wěn)健或適度從緊的貨幣政策,并通過提高政策透明度或采取多樣化的貨幣沖銷手段來提高貨幣政策的有效性。 ③加快我國經(jīng)濟增長模式的轉(zhuǎn)變,繼續(xù)推進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級,進一步擴大內(nèi)需。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化中,調(diào)整出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu),提高產(chǎn)品技術(shù)含量,增加出口商品的附加值成為重中之重。調(diào)整我國收入分配不均現(xiàn)狀、健全我國社會保障體系是擴大內(nèi)需的兩大主要渠道。 ④短期內(nèi)除了盡力舒緩國際輿論壓力外,還要有意識地擴大商品和服務(wù)進口,著力打造促進進出口平衡的中性貿(mào)易政策,變外匯資產(chǎn)儲備為戰(zhàn)略資源儲備。在鼓勵引進外資的同時,還需為國內(nèi)資本的海外投資創(chuàng)造有利渠道,分流出國內(nèi)過多的流動性。中長期里需逐步完善涉外經(jīng)濟政策,放棄對經(jīng)常項目和資本項目的管制,實現(xiàn)向商品自由交易、資本自由流動的完美過渡,以消除國際收支的嚴(yán)重不對稱。 ⑤加快國內(nèi)金融市場發(fā)展,具體是要加快人民幣衍生品市場的發(fā)展,在允許開辦人民幣遠(yuǎn)期和互換的基礎(chǔ)上推出人民幣期權(quán)和期貨交易,使之成為有效的外匯風(fēng)險規(guī)避工具,同時為發(fā)現(xiàn)合理的人民幣即期匯率水平提供市場依據(jù)。 ⑥分階段推進人民幣匯率體制改革。短期讓人民幣在現(xiàn)有制度下實行適度“升值——減稅”的搭配政策,釋放部分升值壓力并緩解國內(nèi)通貨膨脹；中期將有管理的浮動匯率制度過渡到目標(biāo)區(qū)間制度(例如BBC制度),擴大人民幣匯率波動的目標(biāo)區(qū)間寬度。長期里逐步解除外匯管制,實現(xiàn)人民幣匯率自由浮動,并加快推進人民幣國際化進程。我國可借鑒德國檢驗,先讓人民幣先逐步在周邊地區(qū)實現(xiàn)局部區(qū)域內(nèi)的流通。通過各種渠道設(shè)法讓人民幣進入周邊地區(qū)的生產(chǎn)資料市場(如原材料、機械設(shè)備、儀表儀器等),從而拓寬其使用范圍并擴大其定價作用,將人民幣的升值壓力分散到了周邊國家的貨幣上,一方面能緩解國內(nèi)通脹,另一方面能為實現(xiàn)完全的浮動匯率制創(chuàng)造條件,最終解決人民幣內(nèi)外價值偏離的問題。
[Abstract]:A country's currency value generally has two different forms: one is the internal value, mainly reflected in the domestic purchasing power of the currency unit, the so-called price; the other is the external value, mainly for the return of any foreign currency, the so-called exchange rate. According to the traditional theory of international finance a country's currency, internal and external value should be proportional to convergence, i.e. the rise with praise. However, since twenty-first Century, the RMB appeared in the external appreciation and internal devaluation coexist for the characteristics of the internal and external value deviation phenomenon. On the one hand, the RMB against foreign under great pressure of appreciation, especially the international public opinion the pressure of huge trade surplus pressure and developed countries; on the other hand, the RMB has shown the trend of devaluation, not only the price level in the long term "downturn" after a sudden rise overall, stock and real estate prices Also to be high, the internal devaluation of the RMB in the field of consumption and investment both highlighted. The international background and the global liquidity glut and the falling dollar, this phenomenon has been strengthened. The internal and external value of RMB is away from the vision of stage performance of China's current external economy and internal economy and imbalance, because will affect the healthy development of currency the effectiveness of policy and economy, so this problem must be treated carefully. Thus, in order to develop China's macroeconomic regulation and control policy more effectively, continue to maintain steady and rapid economic development, in-depth understanding of the appreciation of RMB and is vital to the causes of internal devaluation coexist. The reason is to from two angles the theoretical and empirical analysis of this phenomenon, and puts forward the macro policy recommendations accordingly.
Firstly, the domestic and foreign scholars on the appreciation of RMB and the classification review based on the relevant research results in depreciation on a phenomenon of the classical theory of RMB exchange rate and the three international monetary system is carried out. The classical theories include the law of one price, purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, the theory of balance of payments exchange, psychological theory; three the international monetary system is the international gold standard, the Bretton Woods system and Jamaica system.
The research method and combination of qualitative and quantitative, the influence factors of RMB exchange rate appreciation, forms and causes of inflation, causes the internal and external value of RMB from the in-depth analysis and research. First, the main influence factors of RMB appreciation are: China's rapid economic growth, huge current-account surpluses, huge surplus of capital and financial projects, rapidly increasing foreign exchange reserves, the domestic and foreign interest rate spreads and RMB appreciation expectation and other factors. The second forms of domestic inflation mainly has three kinds: the consumer price index rose CPI, investment assets (financial assets and real assets) price soaring and long-term real interest rates are negative. This round of inflation is by many factors contributed to: monetary reasons: foreign exchange led to the people's Bank to issue too much of the base currency, making As the excess money supply; economic reasons: the demand caused by inflation, cost push inflation, imported inflation and structural inflation and natural disasters and other emergencies to reduce market supply. The institutional reasons: the market reform in China is not perfect, not the early market field early to market the international market caused by the monopoly of large enterprises, and manipulation of prices; instead, the field should be market-oriented reform is relatively stagnant, a lot of resources under strict custody of the country, can not enter the market to meet the demand, can not digest the surplus funds. Third, from the macro economic background and new theory explains why the internal and external value of RMB two of uncoordinated the reasons include the macroeconomic background. China's economic imbalances (imbalance, economic growth pattern of foreign economic system imbalance) and the imbalance of the world economy (Department of imbalances, the international monetary International The price system). The new interpretation of unbalanced economic theory, mainly the "double effect -- three stage curve" theory and the Pakistan Lhasa - Samuelson effect. The former that domestic and foreign economic imbalances lead to complementary effect between inflation and the appreciation of more than the substitution effect, and exhibits from the internal devaluation and external appreciation of RMB; the latter think at present, the RMB is actually significant deviation and the real exchange rate of RMB appreciation, which accords with the basic idea of the effect of economic growth is rapid, the tradable goods sector labor productivity will lead the country's currency appreciation of the real exchange rate.
Related monthly data from January 2002 to April 2011 and then use the empirical analysis. Mainly using the stationary test, Johansen cointegration test, Grainger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition, and establishes an error correction model for statistical analysis. The test results are as follows: the stationarity test that the RMB exchange rate and the consumer price index E CPI is a single whole sequence. The output of the cointegration test results show that without considering the time value of money factor I, between RMB exchange rate and inflation rate is not cointegration, there is no long-term equilibrium relationship, explains the internal and external value of RMB has no convergence trend; the time value of money I consideration come in, exchange rate, interest rate, there is a cointegration between the inflation rate and negatively related to the long-term and stable relationship between the exchange rate and inflation rate, that From the internal and external value of RMB phenomenon. The Grainger causality between the internal and external value of RMB transfer and conversion channels in China's current economic system under the two-way is not smooth, the internal and external value cannot lead to convergence, PPP is not suitable in our country. The impulse response function shows the impact of the structure of E is a long-term negative impact on CPI; CPI E is on the impact of long-term negative effects. The schematic shows the fluctuation of CPI's contribution to E is greater than E wave contribution to CPI degree. The variance decomposition of vector error correction model of the final output results reinforce the cointegration test concluded that there is a long-term stable relationship between the external appreciation and inflation the internal and external value deviation, become the norm.
Finally, in the process of analysis of the world a few important economies of macroeconomic data, found that two major developed countries Japan and Germany in twentieth Century 60 to 90s appeared deviation and present similar monetary value phenomenon. Therefore, based on the failure to learn the lessons of Japan and learn the successful experience of Germany on according to the theoretical analysis and empirical results of this paper put forward policy suggestions to solve the internal and external value of RMB is not coordinated, mainly in the following aspects:
The more currency flexibility, make a modest appreciation of the RMB. Once enough to eliminate the current expected appreciation of RMB appreciation can alleviate the external pressure of appreciation, but also through commercial channels, monetary channel and expectation channel to regulate the economic imbalance, which restrain domestic inflation.
According to the internal and external equilibrium model of Swan, China to ease domestic economic imbalance should be collocation expenditure policy expenditures and policies. In enhancing the flexibility of the yuan, make a modest appreciation of the RMB at the same time, resolutely safeguard the independence of monetary policy. We will continue to implement a prudent or moderately tight monetary policy in the near future, and by increasing the transparency of policies or take a variety of means of monetary sterilization to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy.
To accelerate the transformation of economic growth mode in China, continue to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, to further expand domestic demand. The optimization of the industrial structure, adjust the structure of export products, improve product technology content, increase the added value of export commodities has become the priority among priorities. The adjustment of China's income inequality situation, improve the social security system in China are the two main channels of expanding domestic demand.
In the short term in addition to try to relieve the pressure of international public opinion, but also consciously increase the import of goods and services, and strive to create and promote the neutral trade policy balance of import and export, foreign exchange reserves variable assets for strategic reserves. In encouraging foreign investment at the same time, also need to create favorable channels for domestic capital overseas investment flows out China too much. In the long term to gradually improve the foreign economic policy, give up on the current account and capital account control, to achieve free trade of goods, perfect transition of the free flow of capital, in order to eliminate international income serious asymmetric branch.
The accelerated development of domestic financial markets, in particular to accelerate the development of RMB derivatives market, RMB options and futures trading on the basis of allowing the RMB forwards and swaps, make it become the effective tool to avoid the risk of foreign exchange market, and provide basis for finding reasonable RMB spot exchange rate level.
To promote the reform of RMB exchange rate system and short-term stages. Let the yuan under the existing system to implement appropriate "appreciation tax" policy collocation, release some pressure of appreciation and ease domestic inflation; the middle of the managed floating exchange rate regime transition to the target range of system (such as the BBC system), the target range of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations to expand in the long run. Gradually lifting exchange controls, the RMB exchange rate to float freely, and accelerate the process of RMB internationalization. China can draw lessons from German test, let the RMB first gradually realize the local circulation within the region in the surrounding area. Through various channels managed to make RMB into the surrounding areas of production materials market (such as raw materials, machinery and equipment instrument, etc.), so as to broaden its use and expand the scope of its pricing, the pressure of RMB appreciation spread to the surrounding countries On the one hand, the currency can ease domestic inflation, and on the other hand, it can create conditions for the realization of a complete floating exchange rate system, and finally solve the problem of the deviation of value between inside and outside the RMB.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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