【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的不斷發(fā)展,企業(yè)面臨的競爭范圍不斷擴(kuò)大,企業(yè)僅憑自己有限的資源很難在市場競爭中取勝,目前,全球商業(yè)競爭已發(fā)展為供應(yīng)鏈的競爭。而傳統(tǒng)的供應(yīng)鏈模式,因其自身結(jié)構(gòu)的局限性,價(jià)值散落在整條供應(yīng)鏈的不同環(huán)節(jié),使供應(yīng)鏈的創(chuàng)新發(fā)展受到了限制。因此,很多企業(yè)開始跳出這種典型的供應(yīng)鏈模式,站在全局的角度對整條供應(yīng)鏈進(jìn)行管理,利用外部資源優(yōu)勢,形成一條虛擬的供應(yīng)鏈,而將散落在各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)的價(jià)值歸于一身,形成自身的競爭優(yōu)勢。虛擬供應(yīng)鏈作為一種新的管理機(jī)制,也存在其特定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),任何一個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)出現(xiàn)問題都可能影響整條供應(yīng)鏈的正常運(yùn)作,因此,研究虛擬供應(yīng)鏈的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估具有很重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先對案例推理和虛擬供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究現(xiàn)狀和理論進(jìn)行綜述,確定案例推理方法適合于進(jìn)行虛擬供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估,并提出把案例推理技術(shù)引入到虛擬供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的研究中。在對虛擬供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類型及影響因素研究的基礎(chǔ)上本文構(gòu)建了虛擬供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估指標(biāo)體系,并定義了各類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的含義。 采用框架表示法對虛擬供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)案例進(jìn)行表示,結(jié)合虛擬供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)領(lǐng)域知識的特點(diǎn),建立了虛擬供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)案例的頂層框架和子框架。另外,實(shí)現(xiàn)案例庫的構(gòu)建,詳細(xì)規(guī)劃和設(shè)計(jì)了案例庫結(jié)構(gòu)圖和表結(jié)構(gòu),并采用知識引導(dǎo)法建立案例索引,以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類別為主索引,并設(shè)置副索引和備選索引,隨著案例庫的不斷更新和學(xué)習(xí),逐步完善案例庫的索引機(jī)制,以加強(qiáng)對案例庫的管理,提高案例檢索的效率。 在案例檢索方面,基于廣義梯形模糊數(shù)的概念,本文改進(jìn)并提出一種新的混合相似度度量方法,克服了大多數(shù)方法不能有效處理模糊數(shù)的缺陷,同時(shí),設(shè)計(jì)了案例相似度檢索機(jī)制,為案例推理模型的實(shí)現(xiàn)打下基礎(chǔ)。在案例修正方面,本文根據(jù)案例檢索的三種可能結(jié)果,給出了不同的案例修正措施,尤其是檢索到K個(gè)近似案例的情況下,采用計(jì)算匹配率和準(zhǔn)確度的方法進(jìn)行修正,以提高系統(tǒng)決策準(zhǔn)確率。關(guān)于案例學(xué)習(xí),本文在傳統(tǒng)的案例學(xué)習(xí)的基礎(chǔ)上,提出建立積淀案例庫的概念,通過屬性約簡的方法形成積淀案例,簡化案例檢索的特征指標(biāo),提高案例庫的學(xué)習(xí)能力和檢索效率。最后,通過實(shí)例研究了系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的過程,證明了系統(tǒng)的可行性及有效性。 本文基于案例推理的應(yīng)用和虛擬供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估作了新的嘗試,提高了問題求解的實(shí)時(shí)性和智能化水平,為虛擬供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評估和防范,提供了一種新的研究思路和解決方法。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, the scope of competition faced by enterprises is constantly expanding. It is very difficult for enterprises to win in the market competition only with their limited resources. At present, the global commercial competition has developed into the competition of supply chain. Because of the limitation of its own structure, the value of the traditional supply chain is scattered in different links of the whole supply chain, which limits the innovation and development of the supply chain. Therefore, many enterprises begin to jump out of this typical supply chain mode, manage the whole supply chain from the perspective of the overall situation, take advantage of external resource advantages, form a virtual supply chain, and put the value scattered in each link into one. Form its own competitive advantage. As a new management mechanism, virtual supply chain also has its specific risks. Any problems in any link may affect the normal operation of the whole supply chain. It is of great practical significance to study the risk assessment of virtual supply chain. In this paper, the current situation and theory of Case-Based reasoning (CBR) and Virtual supply chain (VSC) risk are reviewed firstly, and the Case-Based reasoning (CBR) method is determined to be suitable for risk assessment of Virtual supply chain A case-based reasoning (CBR) technique is proposed to study the risk assessment of virtual supply chain. Based on the study of the risk types and influencing factors of virtual supply chain, this paper constructs the risk assessment index system of virtual supply chain, and defines the meaning of various risk indicators. The framework representation method is used to represent the risk case of virtual supply chain. Combining the characteristics of risk domain knowledge of virtual supply chain, the top-level framework and sub-framework of the risk case of virtual supply chain are established. In addition, the case base structure diagram and table structure are planned and designed in detail, and the case index is established by knowledge leading method. The risk category is the main index, and the secondary index and alternative index are set up. With the continuous updating and learning of the case base, the index mechanism of the case base is improved step by step in order to strengthen the management of the case base and improve the efficiency of case retrieval. In case retrieval, based on the concept of generalized trapezoid fuzzy number, this paper improves and proposes a new mixed similarity measure method, which overcomes the defect that most methods can not deal with fuzzy number effectively. A case similarity retrieval mechanism is designed to lay the foundation for the realization of case-based reasoning model. In the aspect of case correction, according to the three possible results of case retrieval, this paper gives different case correction measures, especially when K approximate cases are retrieved, the method of calculating matching rate and accuracy is used to correct them. In order to improve the system decision accuracy. As for case learning, based on the traditional case study, this paper puts forward the concept of establishing the accumulated case base, forms the accumulated case by attribute reduction, and simplifies the characteristic index of case retrieval. Improve the case base learning ability and retrieval efficiency. Finally, the process of risk assessment is studied through an example, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the system are proved. In this paper, the application of case-based reasoning and the risk assessment of virtual supply chain are made a new attempt to improve the real-time and intelligent level of problem solving, which is the risk assessment and prevention of virtual supply chain. A new research idea and solution are provided.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F274

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