本文選題：復(fù)雜性 + 牛鞭效應(yīng)�。� 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：摘要：隨著供應(yīng)鏈結(jié)構(gòu)的日趨復(fù)雜,供應(yīng)鏈主體間的交互行為也日趨增多。而供應(yīng)鏈的復(fù)雜性會(huì)導(dǎo)致系統(tǒng)中不確定性的增加。牛鞭效應(yīng)正是供應(yīng)鏈中一類典型的由不確定性因素所導(dǎo)致的復(fù)雜現(xiàn)象。牛鞭效應(yīng)會(huì)誤導(dǎo)生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃、導(dǎo)致過(guò)多的庫(kù)存投資、造成無(wú)效運(yùn)輸、降低服務(wù)水平等,從而導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)鏈上巨大的效率損失。牛鞭效應(yīng)是供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)和運(yùn)營(yíng)中最為重要的性能指標(biāo)和績(jī)效指標(biāo),從系統(tǒng)理論上總體考慮和研究牛鞭效應(yīng)的成因、量化、減弱和控制是解決牛鞭效應(yīng)比較緊迫的課題。 因此,本文在對(duì)牛鞭效應(yīng)現(xiàn)有研究進(jìn)行歸納總結(jié)的基礎(chǔ)上,從復(fù)雜性角度對(duì)牛鞭效應(yīng)展開了探討。本文的研究目標(biāo)是,以牛鞭效應(yīng)為研究對(duì)象,以復(fù)雜性理論為研究平臺(tái),從復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的特征入手分析牛鞭效應(yīng)的成因,將復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性度量方法-信息熵引入到對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈牛鞭效應(yīng)的度量,最后針對(duì)牛鞭效應(yīng)的復(fù)雜性成因提出對(duì)應(yīng)的削弱對(duì)策與建議,為企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈信息流的控制管理提供參考。 本文的主要成果和結(jié)論在于：首先,對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性進(jìn)行了分析,基于其復(fù)雜性特征發(fā)現(xiàn)了牛鞭效應(yīng)的生成背后存在一系列復(fù)雜性的誘因,需求的不確定性、供需主體的多變性、供應(yīng)鏈博弈的多樣性、供應(yīng)鏈結(jié)構(gòu)的多層性以及時(shí)間延遲的非線性等五大復(fù)雜性因素共同導(dǎo)致了牛鞭效應(yīng)的生成；第二,基于熵在復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜性度量中的應(yīng)用,本文逐步推導(dǎo)出了供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)二元模型到多元模型的復(fù)雜性熵度量公式,之后針對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈鏈狀模型(牛鞭效應(yīng)模型),提出了系統(tǒng)節(jié)點(diǎn)復(fù)雜度概念,以此來(lái)度量供應(yīng)鏈中各節(jié)點(diǎn)企業(yè)的牛鞭效應(yīng)大小,即用系統(tǒng)節(jié)點(diǎn)熵(復(fù)雜度)來(lái)度量各節(jié)點(diǎn)企業(yè)對(duì)整個(gè)供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)牛鞭效應(yīng)的波動(dòng)貢獻(xiàn)量,并結(jié)合實(shí)例進(jìn)行了分析,與傳統(tǒng)牛鞭效應(yīng)的度量方法進(jìn)行了對(duì)比。最后結(jié)合牛鞭效應(yīng)的復(fù)雜性成因給出了對(duì)應(yīng)的治理建議：減少需求的不確定性、建立企業(yè)長(zhǎng)效合作機(jī)制、避免主體間博弈行為、重構(gòu)供應(yīng)鏈結(jié)構(gòu)以及縮短訂貨交貨周期。
[Abstract]:Abstract: with the increasing complexity of the supply chain structure, the interaction between the main supply chains is increasing. The complexity of the supply chain will lead to the increase of uncertainty in the system. The bullwhip effect is a typical complex phenomenon caused by uncertainty in the supply chain. The bullwhip effect will lead to misleading the production plan and lead to excessive production. Inventory investment, resulting in ineffective transportation, reducing service level, and so on, leads to huge efficiency losses in the supply chain. The bullwhip effect is the most important performance index and performance index in the supply chain system structure and operation. From the system theory, the cause of the bullwhip effect is considered and studied. Quantification, attenuation and control are the solutions to the bullwhip effect ratio. A more urgent subject.
Therefore, based on the summary of the current research on the bullwhip effect, the bullwhip effect is discussed from the perspective of complexity. The aim of this paper is to take the bullwhip effect as the research object and the complexity theory as the research platform. The cause of the bullwhip effect is analyzed from the characteristics of the complex system, and the complexity of the complex system is analyzed. The measurement method - information entropy is introduced to the measurement of the bullwhip effect in supply chain. Finally, the corresponding weakening countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the complexity cause of the bullwhip effect, which will provide reference for the control and management of the supply chain information flow in the enterprise.
The main results and conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the complexity of the supply chain system is analyzed. Based on its complexity, it is found that there is a series of complex causes behind the production of the bullwhip effect, the uncertainty of the demand, the variability of the main body of supply and demand, the diversity of the game of the supply chain, the multilayer of the supply chain structure and the time. Five complex factors such as the nonlinear delay between the two factors lead to the formation of the bullwhip effect. Second, based on the application of entropy in complexity measurement of complex systems, this paper gradually derives the complexity entropy measurement formula of the supply chain system from two to the multivariate model, and then proposes the chain model of the supply chain (the bullwhip effect model). The concept of system node complexity is used to measure the size of the bullwhip effect of each node in the supply chain, that is to measure the fluctuation contribution of each node enterprise to the whole supply chain bullwhip effect by the system node entropy (complexity). The complexity of the bullwhip effect gives the corresponding governance suggestions: reducing the uncertainty of demand, establishing a long-term cooperative mechanism for enterprises, avoiding inter subjective game behavior, reconstructing the supply chain structure and shortening the order and delivery cycle.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F274;F224.32

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本文編號(hào)：1959469