【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速增長和城市化進(jìn)程的加快，，我國城市土地的需求，特別是建設(shè)用地的需求不斷加大。建國之初，在公有制為主導(dǎo)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢下，土地供應(yīng)以行政劃撥為唯一手段，土地的價值體現(xiàn)并不明顯。改革開放以來，我國城市土地使用制度經(jīng)歷了幾次改革，雖對土地公有制這一根本基礎(chǔ)未曾動搖，但土地供應(yīng)邁向市場化的步伐卻越來越快，逐漸形成了一種中國特色的“雙軌制”供應(yīng)，即無償劃撥與有償使用并存。目前，在我國土地浪費和供地緊張并存，城市土地供應(yīng)某種程度上存在著失控的危險。為解決這一問題，許多城市和地區(qū)制定并出臺了城市土地供應(yīng)計劃，對土地供應(yīng)實行總量控制。 近年來，哈爾濱市在土地供應(yīng)計劃的制定和執(zhí)行方面比較落后，直接反映出了政府在土地資源管理和土地市場化運營中的問題，為改變這一現(xiàn)狀，本文試圖全面研究制定土地供應(yīng)計劃的各方面要素，運用科學(xué)的理論指導(dǎo)，依托數(shù)據(jù)模型制定出年度土地供應(yīng)計劃，為哈爾濱市乃至全國的城市土地供應(yīng)計劃制定作為參考。 首先，筆者通過大量收集國內(nèi)外在土地供應(yīng)計劃、土地利用總體規(guī)劃方面的資料和文獻(xiàn)，并對相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行研究，以哈爾濱市土地供應(yīng)現(xiàn)狀作為出發(fā)點，構(gòu)建出年度土地供應(yīng)計劃的理論基礎(chǔ)，并總結(jié)出了土地供應(yīng)計劃所需遵循的原則。其次，通過對存量土地和新增建設(shè)用地的供應(yīng)能力分析，深挖土地潛力，同時，進(jìn)一步探討了利用多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃等技術(shù)手段，以地質(zhì)、地理、自然等現(xiàn)狀條件分析為基礎(chǔ)，結(jié)合土地利用現(xiàn)狀圖等，對土地利用現(xiàn)狀和土地利用總體規(guī)劃、城市總體規(guī)劃進(jìn)行對比分析，得出了可供應(yīng)土地的預(yù)測結(jié)果。再次，在土地需求預(yù)測方面，本文采用回歸模型等方法從數(shù)量上探討了建設(shè)用地總需求的預(yù)測，按照國有建設(shè)用地需求總量、商服用地、工礦倉儲用地、住宅用地、公共管理與公共服務(wù)用地、交通運輸用地、水域及水利設(shè)施用地和特殊用地等各類國有建設(shè)用地需求量分別進(jìn)行預(yù)測，并得土地供應(yīng)的最終計劃。此外，針對土地供應(yīng)計劃在執(zhí)行過程中的難點和問題，本文還提出了有針對性的建議和意見，為哈爾濱市年度土地供應(yīng)計劃的順利推行提供了幫助。
[Abstract]:With the rapid economic growth and the acceleration of urbanization in China, the demand for urban land, especially for construction land, is increasing. At the beginning of the founding of the people's Republic of China, under the economic situation dominated by public ownership, the only means of land supply was administrative transfer, and the value of land was not obvious. Since the reform and opening up, China's urban land use system has undergone several reforms. Although the fundamental foundation of land public ownership has not been shaken, the pace of land supply moving towards marketization is getting faster and faster. Gradually formed a Chinese characteristics of the "double track" system of supply, that is, unpaid transfer and paid use co-exist. At present, land waste and land supply tension coexist in our country, urban land supply is out of control to some extent. In order to solve this problem, many cities and regions have formulated and issued urban land supply plans to control the total amount of land supply. In recent years, Harbin has lagged behind in the formulation and implementation of land supply plans, which directly reflects the problems of the government in the management of land resources and the operation of land marketization. This paper attempts to make a comprehensive study of the various elements of the land supply plan, using scientific theoretical guidance, relying on the data model to formulate the annual land supply plan for Harbin and even the whole country as a reference for the urban land supply plan. First of all, the author collected a large number of domestic and foreign land supply plans, land use planning aspects of information and literature, and related theory research, to Harbin land supply status as the starting point, The theoretical basis of the annual land supply plan is constructed, and the principles to be followed by the land supply plan are summarized. Secondly, through the analysis of the supply capacity of the stock of land and the new construction land, the potential of deep excavation of the land is further explored. At the same time, the use of multi-objective planning and other technical means, based on the analysis of geological, geographical, natural and other current conditions, is further discussed. Combined with the current land use map, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the present land use situation, the overall land use planning and the urban overall planning, and obtains the prediction results of the available land. Thirdly, in the aspect of land demand prediction, this paper uses regression model and other methods to discuss the forecast of total construction land demand, according to the total demand for state-owned construction land, commercial use land, industrial and mining storage land, residential land. The demand of public management and public service land, transportation land, water and water conservancy facility land and special land are forecasted, and the final plan of land supply is obtained. In addition, in view of the difficulties and problems in the implementation of the land supply plan, this paper also puts forward some suggestions and suggestions, which will help the smooth implementation of the annual land supply plan in Harbin.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F301.2

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