本文選題：安徽省　切入點(diǎn)：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《北京林業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：根據(jù)1996年至2012年的安徽省林業(yè)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),采用文獻(xiàn)綜述法、灰色預(yù)測(cè)法、彈性分析法以及動(dòng)態(tài)偏離份額分析法對(duì)安徽省林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行分析,選擇出具有結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)勢(shì)和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力優(yōu)勢(shì)的林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)作為優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè),以此帶動(dòng)安徽省林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康快速發(fā)展,為安徽省林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展提供具有針對(duì)性的建議。 全文主要包括六個(gè)方面的內(nèi)容： 第一,對(duì)近幾年安徽省林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)果顯示安徽省林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)一直保持著增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展不斷得到優(yōu)化,林業(yè)次級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)和二次產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值也在不斷的提局。 第二,采用灰色預(yù)測(cè)方法對(duì)2013年至2030的安徽省林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果以安徽省三次林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值在總產(chǎn)值中所占比重的變化為基礎(chǔ),對(duì)1996年至2030年安徽省林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)演變進(jìn)行階段性劃分,共分為四個(gè)階段(第一階段的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)模式為“一、二、三”,時(shí)間段為1996年至2007年；第二階段的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)模式為“二、一、三”,時(shí)間段為2008年至2012年；第三階段的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)模式為“二、三、一”,時(shí)間段為2013年至2019年；第四階段的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)模式為“三、二、一”,時(shí)間段為2020年至2030年。)。 第三,對(duì)安徽省每一階段的林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)做貢獻(xiàn)率研究,對(duì)比每個(gè)階段各次產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)林業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的影響程度,并與全國(guó)平均水平下同結(jié)構(gòu)的各次產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)林業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的影響程度對(duì)比。結(jié)果表明每一階段中安徽省各次林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值對(duì)總產(chǎn)值的影響程度與產(chǎn)業(yè)模式同步；與全國(guó)平均水平相比,第二階段期間,安徽省三次林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)的彈性系數(shù)均比全國(guó)平均水平要低。 第四,安徽省林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展第二階段的優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇研究。對(duì)安徽省林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的第二階段即2008年至2014年“二、一、三”產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)階段中的各次產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)次級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)(預(yù)測(cè)2013年和2014年林業(yè)次級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)的次級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值),運(yùn)用動(dòng)態(tài)偏離份額法對(duì)安徽省林業(yè)發(fā)展的第二階段進(jìn)行優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇,結(jié)果表明林業(yè)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)是優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè),三大產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)次級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)為林木培育和種植、經(jīng)濟(jì)林產(chǎn)品的種植和采集、花卉的種植、野生動(dòng)物繁育和利用、木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕、葦制品制造、木竹藤家具制造、林產(chǎn)品化學(xué)產(chǎn)品制造、木制工藝品和木制文教體育用品制造、林業(yè)旅游與休閑、林業(yè)生態(tài)服務(wù)、林業(yè)專業(yè)技術(shù)服務(wù)、林業(yè)公共管理及其他組織服務(wù)。 第五,安徽省林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的第三階段優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇研究,并與第二階段的林業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)比。先對(duì)2015年至2019年安徽省林業(yè)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)的次級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),再對(duì)安徽省林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的第三階段進(jìn)行偏離份額分析,選出此階段的優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)為林木的培育和種植、花卉的種植、野生動(dòng)物的繁育和利用、木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕、葦制品制造,木竹藤家具制造,木竹葦漿制造,林產(chǎn)品化學(xué)產(chǎn)品制造,木制工藝品和木制文教體育用品制造、林業(yè)旅游與休閑、林業(yè)專業(yè)技術(shù)服務(wù)、林業(yè)公共管理及其他組織服務(wù)。將第二階段與第三階段的優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)行對(duì)比發(fā)現(xiàn)林業(yè)第一產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)次級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)中的經(jīng)濟(jì)林產(chǎn)品的種植和采集在第二階段是優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)但第三階段不是優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè),林業(yè)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)次級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)中的木竹葦漿制造產(chǎn)業(yè)在第二階段不是優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)但第三階段是優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè),林業(yè)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)次級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)中的林業(yè)生態(tài)服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)表現(xiàn)為第二階段是優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)第三階段不是優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)。 第六,根據(jù)以上研究對(duì)本文進(jìn)行總結(jié),依據(jù)結(jié)論提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:According to the Anhui provincial forestry statistical data from 1996 to 2012, using the method of literature, the gray prediction method, the elastic analysis of forestry industrial structure in Anhui province were analyzed and the dynamic shift share analysis method, selected structure and competitive advantages of the forestry industry as the dominant industry, in order to promote the rapid development of Anhui province forestry economic health, provide specific suggestions for the development of Anhui forestry economy.
The full text mainly includes six aspects:
First, we analyze the development status of forestry industry in recent years in Anhui province. The results show that the forestry industry economy in Anhui province has maintained an increasing trend, and the development of industrial structure has been continuously optimized. The output value of secondary industry and the two industry is also constantly improving.
Second, using the grey forecasting method of forestry industry in Anhui Province on 2013 to 2030 of the predicted value, according to the forecast results to Anhui Province three forestry industry output in the total output value in the proportion of the change based on 1996 to 2030 in Anhui province forestry industry evolution stage division, is divided into four stages (the first stage of the industrial structure model as the "one, two, three, the period is from 1996 to 2007; the second phase of the industrial structure model as the" two, three ", the period is from 2008 to 2012; the third phase of the industrial structure mode of" two, three ", the time period for the 2013 to 2019; the fourth phase of the industrial structure model as the" three, two ", the period is from 2020 to 2030.).
Third, do research on the contribution rate of each stage of Anhui province forestry industry, the influence degree of each industry comparison on the total output value of forestry industry, and the same with the national average level structure of the total output value of forestry are compared. The results show that the influence degree of each stage in Anhui Province, the forestry industry output value of the total output value of the degree of influence and industrial model synchronization; compared with the national average, during the second phase, three times of Anhui province forestry industry elasticity coefficient was lower than the national average.
Fourth, study on the selection of second stages in the development of forestry industry in Anhui province. The second stages of the development of the dominant industry of forestry industry in Anhui province from 2008 to 2014 two, the industrial structure, stage three "in the industry in the secondary industry output value prediction (prediction value of secondary industry in 2013 and 2014 in the forestry secondary industry). The use of dynamic shift share method of forestry development in Anhui province of the second stages of the superiority industry choice, results show that the second forestry industry and the third industry is the dominant industry, the three industry in the secondary industry as the industrial advantages of forest cultivation and planting, cultivation and collection of forest products, flower planting, wild animal breeding and utilization of wood processing and wood, bamboo, rattan, palm, reed bamboo and rattan wood products manufacturing, furniture manufacturing, forest products, chemical products, wooden crafts and wooden stationery and sporting goods manufacturing, tourism and Forestry Leisure, forestry ecological service, forestry professional technical service, forestry public management and other organization services.
Fifth, choose the research on the third stage of industrial development, the forestry industry in Anhui Province, and the second stage of the superior forestry industry comparison. First on 2015 to 2019 in Anhui province forestry three industries within the secondary industry output forecast, third stages of the development of the forestry industry in Anhui province the shift share analysis, choose this stage advantage industry cultivation and planting of trees, flowers, wild animal breeding and utilization, wood processing and wood, bamboo, rattan, palm, reed bamboo and rattan wood products manufacturing, furniture manufacturing, wood and bamboo reed pulp manufacturing, forest products, chemical products, wooden crafts and wooden stationery and sporting goods manufacturing, forestry, tourism and leisure professional and technical services, forestry, forestry management and other public service organizations. The second and third stages of the advantage industry comparison in sub industries of forestry primary industry in economic forest The products of cultivation and collection is the dominant industry in third stages but not the advantage industry in the second stage, wood and bamboo reed pulp second forestry industry in the secondary industry in the manufacturing industry in the second stage of the third stage is the dominant industry but not dominant industry, the third forestry industry in secondary industry in the forestry ecological service industry for the performance of the second stage is the dominant industry the third stage is not the dominant industries.
Sixth, according to the above research, this paper summarizes the article, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions according to the conclusion.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F326.2

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