本文關(guān)鍵詞：甘肅省經(jīng)濟增長與就業(yè)關(guān)系實證研究　出處：《甘肅農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 經(jīng)濟增長 就業(yè)彈性 失業(yè)率 細分行業(yè) 直接消耗系數(shù)矩陣 奧肯定律驗證

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟增長與就業(yè)之間的關(guān)系問題是當前國內(nèi)研究的熱點話題，也是宏觀經(jīng)濟研究的重點問題，論文首先回顧了國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀，對古典、新古典以及非均衡增長與轉(zhuǎn)移就業(yè)涉及經(jīng)濟增長與就業(yè)關(guān)系的觀點方法進行了比較分析，對國內(nèi)的研究從就業(yè)彈性變化趨勢分析、經(jīng)濟增長與就業(yè)增長同步性研究、高增長低就業(yè)原因探析、產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值增長的非均衡就業(yè)、經(jīng)濟增長優(yōu)先與就業(yè)優(yōu)先爭論、特殊人群就業(yè)與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系六大方面分類綜述分析，為該論文的研究提供了堅實的理論基礎(chǔ)。 其次，對甘肅省經(jīng)濟增長和就業(yè)變動特征進行了分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)自1978年以來，甘肅省經(jīng)濟總量的時間趨勢圖呈“U”型曲線右半段特征，經(jīng)濟增長經(jīng)歷了高增長率高度波動、高增長率較高度波動、高增長率低度波動三個階段，增長速度在趨向平穩(wěn)。三次產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值增長速度依次是“二、三、一”，產(chǎn)值比重大小依然是“二、三、一”，與理想的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)“三、二、一”存在差距。甘肅省就業(yè)總量變化經(jīng)歷了高增長率高度波動、低增長率高度波動、較高增長率低度波動三個階段，三次產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)比重大小為“一、三、二”，第一產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)比重基本穩(wěn)定在60%，二三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)比重提升相當緩慢。從短期來看，甘肅省經(jīng)濟增長與就業(yè)增長的增長性在多數(shù)年份是相反的，即高經(jīng)濟增長率伴隨低就業(yè)增長率，波動性卻一致。從長期來看，二者的增長性從不一致到一致性變動，波動性從高度波動一致到低度波動一致，總體來看，高經(jīng)濟增長率、低就業(yè)增長率現(xiàn)象越來越明顯。 然后，文章分析了表征經(jīng)濟增長和就業(yè)增長變量的基本關(guān)系，三次產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值及就業(yè)量和經(jīng)濟總量、就業(yè)總量的相關(guān)性檢驗結(jié)果表明，在所有相關(guān)系數(shù)中，第一產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值Y1與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)總量L3的相關(guān)系數(shù)最大是0.794，并且在0.01上通過顯著性檢驗。格蘭杰因果檢驗得出，甘肅省經(jīng)濟增長率是總就業(yè)增長率變動的格蘭杰原因，而不是二三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)增長率變動的格蘭杰原因，，總就業(yè)增長率不是經(jīng)濟增長率變動的格蘭杰原因，而二三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)增長率是引起經(jīng)濟增長率變動的格蘭杰原因。因此，要有效化解這一矛盾，就必須以增加二三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)量為出發(fā)點，形成經(jīng)濟增長和就業(yè)增長的良性循環(huán)。 引入技術(shù)不變條件下的雙對數(shù)新古典增長模型，估算了1978-2010年以及每個11年三個階段勞動和固定資產(chǎn)投資對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻，結(jié)果表明，在長期內(nèi)勞動和固定資產(chǎn)投資對甘肅省經(jīng)濟增長貢獻份額分別是0.35和0.73，短期比較發(fā)現(xiàn)勞動對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻份額先大幅下降，然后又緩慢上升。 另外，對奧肯定律的五種模式進行了區(qū)域性驗證，得出奧肯定律的差分、缺口、對稱動態(tài)、生產(chǎn)函數(shù)模式均在甘肅實證中失靈，只有非對稱動態(tài)奧肯定律在甘肅省經(jīng)濟收縮期適用，在經(jīng)濟擴張期失靈。因此，在甘肅省經(jīng)濟收縮期，通過增加產(chǎn)出，促進經(jīng)濟增長以降低失業(yè)率是有效的，而在經(jīng)濟擴張期單純依靠經(jīng)濟增長抵御高失業(yè)率卻存在一定的風險。 接著，根據(jù)就業(yè)彈性基本計算公式E=GL/Gy計算了甘肅省就業(yè)彈性，得出改革開放以來甘肅省就業(yè)彈性變化大體趨勢是：80年代高就業(yè)彈性，高就業(yè)彈性波動；90年代高就業(yè)彈性，低就業(yè)彈性波動；2000年之后低就業(yè)彈性，低就業(yè)彈性波動。回歸方法旨在得到甘肅省長期平均就業(yè)彈性，三次產(chǎn)業(yè)聯(lián)動回歸作用下就業(yè)彈性大小是“一、二、三”，非聯(lián)動回歸彈性大小依次是“三、二、一”，兩種回歸情況下三次產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)彈性大小排序恰好相反，這不僅說明了第一產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)“蓄水池”的“備胎之馬太效應(yīng)”，也說明了第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的高就業(yè)吸納能力。 最后，基于2007年甘肅省投入產(chǎn)出直接消耗系數(shù)矩陣，對42個細分行業(yè)就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力計算得出，服務(wù)業(yè)平均就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力是0.0967人/萬元，高于工業(yè)平均就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力0.0789人/萬元和農(nóng)業(yè)0.0330人/萬元，從理論上證明了第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中以服務(wù)業(yè)為代表的高就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力。甘肅省細分行業(yè)中就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力較大的依次是：煤炭開采與洗選業(yè)、教育事業(yè)、水利環(huán)境公共設(shè)施管理業(yè)、水的生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)、儀器儀表加工機械制造業(yè)、公共管理社會組織、金融業(yè)、衛(wèi)生社會福利業(yè)、電力熱力生產(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè)、文化體育娛樂業(yè)等。細分行業(yè)就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力排序表明，并不是所有高就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力行業(yè)都集中在第三產(chǎn)業(yè)，也并不是制造業(yè)的所有行業(yè)都是低就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力行業(yè)。因此，在看到服務(wù)業(yè)高就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力的同時，要給予高就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力的制造業(yè)資金支持和政策傾斜。和全國細分行業(yè)就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力比較發(fā)現(xiàn)，甘肅省除了和全國具有共同的就業(yè)創(chuàng)造引領(lǐng)行業(yè)外，如教育事業(yè)、社保福利業(yè)，也有其不同于全國的高就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力行業(yè)，如金融業(yè)。 基于以上經(jīng)濟增長和就業(yè)的基本關(guān)系，結(jié)合各細分行業(yè)就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力差異，為了降低甘肅省失業(yè)率，抵御不斷下降的就業(yè)彈性，擺脫高增長、低就業(yè)、高失業(yè)率的尷尬局面，基本政策建議是：要以就業(yè)優(yōu)先增長為目標，確保就業(yè)水平穩(wěn)定上升；第二產(chǎn)業(yè)注重結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)加快技術(shù)創(chuàng)新；加大對高就業(yè)創(chuàng)造行業(yè)的支持力度；在甘肅省經(jīng)濟收縮期，降低失業(yè)率的首選方法是增加產(chǎn)出，促進經(jīng)濟增長，而在經(jīng)濟擴張期抵御高失業(yè)率要重點通過引導勞動力向高就業(yè)創(chuàng)造能力行業(yè)流動；充分利用國家促進就業(yè)政策，全力推進城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌就業(yè)；積極學習其他省份促進就業(yè)的政策和辦法，確保就業(yè)服務(wù)工作長效化、常態(tài)化。
[Abstract]:The relationship between economic growth and employment is a hot topic in current domestic research, also is the key problem of macroeconomic research, this paper firstly reviews the status of domestic and foreign research on classical, new classical and non balanced growth and employment transfer point method relates to economic growth and employment relations are analyzed, the research on the domestic from the analysis of the change trend of employment elasticity, synchronization of economic growth and employment growth, high growth of industrial output growth low employment reasons, unbalanced employment, economic growth and employment priority priority argument, special population employment and economic growth classification review analysis of the relationship between the six aspects, provides a solid theoretical foundation for the research of this thesis.
Secondly, the economic growth of Gansu province and the change of employment characteristics are analyzed, found that since 1978, the time trend of Gansu province's economy showed "U" curve right above characteristics, the economic growth experienced high growth rate high volatility, high growth rate is highly volatile, high growth rate and low volatility in three stages, the growth rate in tended to be stable. Three industry output growth rate are two, three, one ", the proportion of the size is still two, three, one", and the ideal industrial structure "three, two". There is a gap between the total amount of employment changes in Gansu province has experienced high growth rate high volatility the low growth rate of high volatility, the higher growth rate of low volatility in three stages, three industrial employment proportion of the size of "one, three, two, the proportion of primary industry employment stability in 60%, the proportion of the two or three industry employment promotion is very slow. In the short term, Gansu Province The growth of economic growth and employment growth is opposite in most years, the economic growth rate is high with low employment growth rate, volatility is consistent. In the long term, the growth of the two never agreed to change the consistency, volatility from high to low volatility caused by volatility is consistent, overall, high economy the growth rate and low employment growth rate is more and more obvious.
Then, the paper analyzes the basic characterization of relationship between economic growth and employment growth variables, the output value of the three industries and employment and economic aggregate, the total employment correlation test showed that the correlation coefficients of all, correlation coefficient of the first and the third industry industrial output value Y1 L3 maximum total employment is 0.794, and through the significant test 0.01. Grainger causality, the economic growth rate of Gansu province is the Grainger reason of change in total employment growth rate, rather than the two or three industry employment growth rate of the reasons for the change of Grainger, the total employment growth rate is not the Grainger reason of economic growth rate changes, while the two or three industry employment growth rate is caused by Grainger cause growth rates therefore, to resolve this contradiction, we must increase the amount of employment in the two or three industry as the starting point, forming a virtuous circle of economic growth and employment growth.
Double logarithmic neoclassical growth model introduced under the condition of constant, estimated 1978-2010 years and 11 years each of three stages of labor and fixed asset investment contribution to economic growth, the results show that in the long term labor and fixed asset investment contribution to economic growth of Gansu province share were 0.35 and 0.73, compared to short-term labor contribution to the economic growth of the first decline, and then rising slowly.
In addition, the regional test on five modes of Okun's law, Okun's law that the difference, gap, symmetrical dynamic production function model, failure in Gansu empirical, only the asymmetric dynamic Okun's law applicable in Gansu Province during the period of economic contraction, the failure in the period of economic expansion. Therefore, in Gansu Province during the period of economic contraction and by increasing the output, promote economic growth to reduce the unemployment rate is effective, but there are certain risks in the period of economic expansion relying solely on economic growth against the high rate of unemployment.
Then, according to the employment elasticity of the basic formula E=GL/Gy to calculate the employment elasticity of Gansu province since the reform and opening up, that the employment elasticity of Gansu province in general trend is: 80s high employment elasticity, high employment elasticity fluctuation; 90s high employment elasticity, low employment elasticity fluctuation after 2000; low employment elasticity, low employment elasticity regression method to get fluctuations. Gansu Province, the long-term average employment elasticity, three industry linkage regression under employment elasticity is one, two, three, the size of the order is non elastic linkage regression "three, two", two regression case of three industry employment elasticity ranking on the contrary, it not only introduces the first industry employment "" the spare reservoir "Matthew effect", also shows that the third industry of high ability to absorb employment.
Last 2007, Gansu province input-output direct consumption coefficient matrix based on the calculation of the employment of 42 industry segments, creative ability, service industry average employment creation ability is 0.0967 people / million, higher than the industry average employment creation capacity of 0.0789 people / million and agriculture 0.0330 / million, theoretically proved that the high employment creation the ability to service as a representative of the third industry in Gansu province. The sub sectors in employment creation are: large coal mining and washing industry, education, environment and public facilities management industry of water conservancy, water production and supply industry, instrument processing machinery manufacturing industry, public management, social organization, finance, health and society the welfare industry, electricity and heat production and supply industry, culture and sports entertainment industry. Industries employment creation ordination showed that not all high employment creation industries are concentrated in the third industry, also Not all industry and manufacturing industry are low employment creation industries. Therefore, in the service industry to see high employment creation capacity at the same time, to give the high employment ability of the manufacturing industry financial support and preferential policies. And the breakdown of the industry employment creation comparison, in addition to the Gansu province and the national common employment creation lead outside the industry, such as education, social welfare, also is different from the high employment creation capacity of the industry, such as the financial industry.
The basic relationship between the economic growth and employment based on the combined employment of each industry segment creation ability difference, in order to reduce the unemployment rate of Gansu Province, against the employment elasticity decreasing, get rid of high growth and low employment, high unemployment in the embarrassing situation, basic policy recommendations: to increase priority employment as the goal, to ensure stable employment level rise; second industry focus on structural optimization, technological innovation of the third industry to accelerate the increase; create industry support for the high employment; in Gansu Province during the period of economic contraction, reduce the unemployment rate is the preferred method to increase output, promote economic growth, while in the period of economic expansion against high unemployment should focus on by guiding the labor to high employment creation ability business flow; make full use of national policies to promote employment, to promote urban and rural employment; active learning in other provinces to promote employment policies and measures to ensure The employment service work is long-term and normal.

【學位授予單位】：甘肅農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F249.27

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