本文關鍵詞：鞍山師范學院實驗樓建設項目工程造價風險管理研究，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

        在全球經濟飛速發(fā)展的二十一世紀,我國建筑事業(yè)也在突飛猛進的發(fā)展著,但是在發(fā)展的同時也出現(xiàn)了很多問題,例如說,工期長、投資大、參與主體多、組織關系復雜等因素,在這樣一個多變的自然環(huán)境和社會環(huán)境中,就使得建設項目面臨各種各樣的工程造價風險。所以,從成本控制、施工安全和市場競爭等多方面的考慮,加強風險的分析能力和控制能力對于建設項目的主體和客體來說都顯得十分重要。加之近年來,國內經濟在持續(xù)發(fā)展的同時也存在一定的不穩(wěn)定的因素,使得原來就存在于工程招投標及施工管理中的工程造價風險明顯增大,這也有一些典型的例子可以借鑒。因此,如何正確的認識工程造價的風險,采取切實有效的應對措施,化解風險,已經成為建設項目中的一項至關重要的工作。實驗樓的建設屬于一般的房地產樓盤建設項目,對招標標準、施工質量、參與主體都有很高的要求,所以在實驗樓的建設項目中勢必會有很多風險。風險的不確定性和多變性給實驗樓建設項目整體帶來了一定的威脅。目前在國際建設項目管理領域中,造價管理理論方面的研究已經有了一定的成果,并且工程項目的風險管理理論和控制理論方面已經將近成熟,但是,對于將工程項目的造價管理理論與工程項目的風險管理及控制理論相結合進行研究尚處于初步發(fā)展階段你,所以,工程項目的造價風險管理研究具有很大的學術意義和實踐指導的意義。本文以鞍山師范學院實驗樓的建設項目為實證研究的對象,將工程項目的造價管理與風險管理相結合,并應用到具體的實際活動之中,同時對于不同階段的工程造價情況應用不同的方法,套完整的工程造價風險評價與規(guī)避策略,這樣一來,本文的研究具有很大的實踐指導和借鑒的意義,有著實踐應用的價值。首先,工程項目造價的風險管理和風險控制,是在工程項目風險識別的基礎上進行的,首先要對工程項目所涉及到的各種不確定的變動性因素進行識別,主要對其產生的背景和表現(xiàn)特點進行研究和分析。工程項目的造價是在工程項目的整體進程中起著至關重要的作用,是工程項目的風險管理的第一步也是尤為重要的一步。工程項目中的造價風險一般情況下都很難辨認,隱藏性很高,也有著太多的不確定性,所以選用正確的方法來對工程項目的造價風險進行識別也就存在著一定的難度,需要根據不同階段的造價風險的特性,再來決定具體采用的識別方法和手段。其次,在對工程項目造價風險進行了識別之后,對相應的工程項目的造價風險進行評價就至關重要了。我們通過對工程項目的造價風險進行識別和評價,比較工程項目的預算造價與實際造價,預算造價低于實際造價發(fā)生的風險的概率,并對該風險進行測定、衡量和估算,以便在工程項目開始之前就采取相應的造價風險處理策略。對工程項目造價的風險進行評價的可選用的方法很多,在具體實際應用時,我們需要對風險的評價更應當根據不同的情況及最終的目標,對工程項目造價的風險評價使用合適的、科學的方法。常用的風險評價方法可以分為定性分析方法和定量分析方法。工程項目造價風險的定性評價方法主要包括:主觀評價法、專家調查法、故障樹分析法及類推法等。工程項目造價風險的定量評價是在我們對其風險進行了定性評價之后,風險的定量評價能夠評價風險發(fā)生概率的大小和影響程度,根據這些數據我們可以對造價風險進行綜合的評價。程項目造價風險的定量評價方法主要有:層次分析法、模糊綜合評分法、概率分析法、馬爾科夫過程分析法及蒙特卡洛模擬法等。最后,工程項目的風險處理策略還有很多種,工程項目從最初的可行性分析、經過招標投標、簽訂合同到最后的實施等環(huán)節(jié),無處不存在著風險,對不同的情況應采用不同的風險規(guī)避策略,不能一概而論,而且很多風險是無法完全的防范和處理的,應用風險的規(guī)避策略:風險回避、風險降低、風險分散、風險轉移及風險自留等策略,也只能解決某些風險的問題,并不是所有的風險都可以通過上述一種或者幾種策略就可以解決的,需要具體問題具體解決。其他的風險規(guī)避方式還有很多,例如工程項目的風險利用、預備計劃的制定和其他的風險防范策略。沒有一個十分完善的風險規(guī)避策略可以規(guī)避一切風險的發(fā)生,我們能做的只是盡量減少風險的發(fā)生,或者減少風險帶來的損失代價,盡量保障工程項目的有質有量的完成,降低工程項目的造價風險。結合鞍山實驗樓的具體建設情況,我們應用這五種策略在不同的工程項目風險情況的不同的作用,對實驗樓建設項目進行了具體的剖析和研究。

    In the 21st century, with the rapid development of global economic, China’s construction enterprises also develop rapidly. But at the same time there also appeared a lot of problems with the development. For example, delay of construction period, big investment, too more participation body and complex relationship, organization and other factors, in such a diverse natural environment and social environment, construction projects have to face with all kinds of engineering cost risk. So, from the cost control, construction safety and market competition and so on, strengthen risk analysis ability and the ability to control the construction project for the subject and object of all become very important. And in recent years, domestic economy in sustainable development at the same time also has certain unstable factors make the original is in engineering bidding and construction management of the engineering cost risks are increased, it also has some typical examples can use. Therefore, how to correct understanding of engineering cost risk and take effective measures, risks, and has already become one of the construction project is very important work.The construction of the building belongs to the general real estate and construction project, building on tender and standards, the construction quality, participation main body all have very high demand, so in the lab of a construction project will inevitably there will be many risks. The risk of uncertainty and variability to the laboratory building construction project as a whole brought a certain amount of threat. Currently in the field of international construction project management, cost management theory research have some results, and project risk management theory and control theory has been nearly mature, but, for the cost of the project and project management theory risk management and control theory research is still at a preliminary stage of development you are, so the cost of the project risk management, academic research has great significance and practical significance of the guidance.In this paper, the normal college of the construction of the experiment building An Shan project for empirical research objects, engineering project cost management and risk management, and the combination of and application to a specific practical activities, and for different stages of the project cost situation different methods, the complete set of project cost risk evaluation and avoid strategy, and thus, this paper is a practical guide and the significance of the value of practical application, has.First, the cost of the project risk management and risk control, is in the engineering project risk identification on the basis of, first of all to project involved all kinds of uncertain factors, major changes to the identification of the background and the performance characteristics of research and analysis. The project is the cost of the project the overall course plays an important role in the engineering project, is the first step of risk management is also particularly important step. The cost of the project risk generally are difficult to identify, conceal a gender, also have high too much uncertainty, so choose the correct way to of project cost risk identification and there is certain difficulty, need according to different stages of the cost of the risk characteristics, then decided to the specific identification method and means.Secondly, in to the project cost risk identification, some after the cost of the project risk assessment is crucial. We through to the project cost risk identification and evaluation, more of the project construction cost and actual cost budget, budget cost less than the actual cost of the probability of risk happened, and the risks of determination, and estimate, in order to measure the project before it begins to take the corresponding cost risk management strategy. Secondly, in to the project cost risk identification, some after the cost of the project risk assessment is crucial. We through to the project cost risk identification and evaluation, more of the project construction cost and actual cost budget, budget cost less than the actual cost of the probability of risk happened, and the risks of determination, and estimate, in order to measure the project before it begins to take the corresponding cost risk management strategy.In the engineering project cost the risk evaluation can choose many methods, in specific practical application, we need to evaluate the risk of more shall, according to the different situations and the final goal of the project, the cost of the risk assessment with the right, the method of science. Some of the risk assessment method can be divided into qualitative analysis method and quantitative analysis method.Finally, project risk management strategies are various, project from the initial feasibility analysis, through tendering and bidding, sign a contract to the final implementation, there is no such links as there is no risk of different situation, should adopt different risk aversion strategy, cannot treat as the same, and a lot of risk is not completely prevent and processing of the application, the evasion of the risks strategy: risk aversion, risk reduction, diversification, the risk transfer and risk privately owned strategy, also can solve some problems of the risk, and not all of the risk can be through the above one or several strategies can solve, need to solve particular problems. Other risk aversion way still has a lot of, for example project risk using, preparation plan and other risk prevention strategies.There is not a good risk hedging strategy can avoid all risks occurrence, what we can do is try to reduce the occurrence of risk, or reduce the risk of loss, try to bring price guarantee of the project have quality have the completion of the quantity, reduce the cost of the project risk. Combined with the construction of concrete anshan building, we use the five strategies in different project risks of different role in building construction project, a concrete analysis and research.

鞍山師范學院實驗樓建設項目工程造價風險管理研究

摘要4-7Abstract7-9第1章 緒論11-16    1.1 研究背景和意義11-12    1.2 國內外研究現(xiàn)狀12-14    1.3 研究內容與方法14-16第2章 工程造價風險管理相關基礎理論16-24    2.1 工程造價管理相關理論16-17    2.2 風險管理相關理論17-20    2.3 工程造價風險管理相關理論20-24第3章 實驗樓建設項目工程造價風險識別與評價24-37    3.1 工程項目造價風險的識別與評價24-26    3.2 實驗樓建設項目工程造價的風險識別26-29    3.3 實驗樓建設項目工程造價的風險評價29-37第4章 實驗樓建設項目工程造價風險規(guī)避方法與策略37-48    4.1 實驗樓建設項目工程的風險規(guī)避方法37-40    4.2 實驗樓建設項目工程的風險規(guī)避策略40-47    4.3 其他風險規(guī)避技巧47-48結論48-50參考文獻50-52致謝52

  本文關鍵詞：鞍山師范學院實驗樓建設項目工程造價風險管理研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。