中國城市化階段建材工業(yè)的節(jié)能與碳排放研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-07 13:21
【摘要】：目前,中國正處于城市化快速推進的階段。經(jīng)過改革開放三十多年來的經(jīng)濟增長,中國已一躍成為全球第一大能源消費國和二氧化碳排放國。由于龐大的人口基數(shù),以及城市居民較高的能源消費水平,中國未來的能源需求仍將持續(xù)增長。通過與發(fā)達國家的比較,本文發(fā)現(xiàn),中國的能源需求和二氧化碳排放,均受到發(fā)展階段的約束。較為快速的經(jīng)濟增長,意味著較低的能源利用效率,且要求有充足且廉價的能源作為支撐。以煤為主,是中國城市化階段能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)的主要特征。然而,考慮到能源稀缺、環(huán)境污染和氣候變化等問題,城市化的快速推進所引致的能源消費的快速增長將是中國經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)增長所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。工業(yè)是中國能源消費和二氧化碳排放的主要貢獻者。城市化的發(fā)展必然帶動基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),而基礎(chǔ)上設(shè)施建設(shè)的擴張,則意味著對水泥、陶瓷、玻璃等建筑材料需求的不斷上升。建筑材料工業(yè)是中國六大高耗能工業(yè)之一,其行業(yè)能源消費約占據(jù)全國能源消費的9%,行業(yè)電力消費約占據(jù)全社會消費量的6%。建材工業(yè)還是中國的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),其行業(yè)增加值每年貢獻約1%的GDP。建材工業(yè)的能源需求和二氧化碳排放體現(xiàn)了階段性的特征,其節(jié)能減排潛力對于中國實現(xiàn)能源需求總量控制和低碳經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型具有重要意義。在城市化階段的大背景下,本文采用國際比較的方法,探究了能源需求和二氧化碳排放的階段性特征,分析了經(jīng)濟增長與能源需求和二氧化碳排放的關(guān)系,并預(yù)測中國城市化階段的能源需求和二氧化碳排放的峰值與拐點。更進一步,本文以建材工業(yè)為具體的研究對象,主要回答了以下幾個問題：在城市化階段下,推動建材工業(yè)能源需求的主要因素是什么?不同經(jīng)濟增長情形下,建材工業(yè)的能源需求及節(jié)能量如何?在不同情景模擬下,建材工業(yè)的電力需求及節(jié)電量怎樣?與具有最高效率的日本建材工業(yè)相比,中國建材工業(yè)電力強度下降的潛力如何?影響建材工業(yè)二氧化碳排放的主要因素有哪些,行業(yè)的減排潛力有多大?主要的研究結(jié)論有以下幾點：第一,中國的能源需求體現(xiàn)出階段性的特征。伴隨城市化的發(fā)展,中國的能源消費高速增長且剛性增長。能源需求與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平之間呈現(xiàn)倒U型關(guān)系。第二,在城市化階段,二氧化碳排放具有剛性增長的特征。經(jīng)濟增長、城市化、能源強度和對建材產(chǎn)品的需求是影響中國二氧化碳排放的主要因素。節(jié)能是降低二氧化碳的主要手段。第三,建材工業(yè)的能源需求主要受到經(jīng)濟增長的影響。能源價格的提高,科技進步以及人均生產(chǎn)率的提高均有利于建材工業(yè)能源需求的降低。第四,經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平是建材工業(yè)電力消費增長的主要驅(qū)動力,而行業(yè)人均增加值、行業(yè)研發(fā)強度和電力價格是推動行業(yè)耗電量下降的主要因素。第五,技術(shù)進步、勞動生產(chǎn)率、電力價格和行業(yè)密集度有利于建材工業(yè)電力強度的下降。到2020年,中國建材工業(yè)的電力強度將顯著下降,甚至可以達到當(dāng)前日本建材工業(yè)的水平。更加積極的節(jié)能政策,有利于降低行業(yè)的電力強度,實現(xiàn)更大的節(jié)電潛力。第六,工業(yè)活動效應(yīng)是建材工業(yè)二氧化碳排放增加的主導(dǎo)因素,而能源強度效應(yīng)則是建材工業(yè)二氧化碳排放降低的主要貢獻力量。燃料間替代有利于降低行業(yè)的二氧化碳排放。節(jié)能應(yīng)當(dāng)是降低行業(yè)能源強度和二氧化碳排放的主要策略。
[Abstract]:At present, China is in the stage of rapid urbanization. After more than 30 years of reform and opening-up, China has become the world's first-largest consumer of energy and carbon dioxide. China's future energy needs will continue to grow due to the large population base and the high level of energy consumption of urban residents. By comparison with the developed countries, this paper has found that China's energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions are all subject to the development stage. A more rapid economic growth means lower energy use efficiency and requires sufficient and inexpensive energy as the support. It is the main characteristic of energy consumption structure in the stage of China's urbanization. However, taking into account the problems of energy scarcity, environmental pollution and climate change, the rapid growth of energy consumption caused by the rapid urbanization of urbanization will be a challenge to the sustainable growth of China's economy. Industry is a major contributor to China's energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. The development of urbanization must drive the construction of the infrastructure, and the expansion of the construction of the facilities on the foundation means the rising demand of the building materials such as cement, ceramics and glass. The construction material industry is one of the six high energy-consuming industries in China. The energy consumption in the industry accounts for about 9% of the national energy consumption, and the consumption of electric power accounts for about 6% of the total social consumption. The building material industry is also the pillar industry of China, and the added value of its industry contributes about 1% of GDP per year. The energy demand and carbon dioxide emission of the building material industry are characterized by stages, and the energy-saving and emission-reducing potential of the building material industry is of great significance to China's total energy demand control and low-carbon economic transformation. In the background of the urbanization, this paper uses the international comparison method to explore the characteristics of energy demand and carbon dioxide emission, and analyzes the relationship between economic growth and energy demand and carbon dioxide emission. The peak and inflection point of energy demand and carbon dioxide emission in China's urbanization stage are predicted. Furthermore, based on the building material industry, this paper mainly answers the following questions: what is the main factor to promote the energy demand of building materials in the stage of urbanization? in that case of different economic growth, what is the energy demand and energy saving of the building material industry? What is the power demand and power saving of the building material industry under different scenarios? What is the potential for a decline in the power strength of China's building materials compared to the Japanese construction industry with the highest efficiency? What are the main factors that affect the carbon dioxide emission of building materials and how big is the emission reduction potential of the industry? The main conclusions are as follows: First, China's energy demand reflects the characteristics of the stage. With the development of urbanization, China's energy consumption has increased at a high speed and its rigid growth. There is a U-type relationship between energy demand and economic development level. Second, in the stage of urbanization, carbon dioxide emissions have the characteristics of rigid growth. Economic growth, urbanization, energy intensity and demand for building materials are the main factors that affect China's carbon dioxide emissions. Energy conservation is the main means to reduce carbon dioxide. Third, the energy demand of building materials industry is mainly affected by economic growth. The improvement of energy prices, the progress of science and technology and the improvement of the per-capita productivity are both conducive to the reduction of energy demand for building materials. Fourth, the level of economic development is the main driving force of the growth of power consumption in the building materials industry, and the per-capita added value of the industry, the development intensity of the industry and the electric power price are the main factors that push the power consumption of the industry to drop. Fifth, technological progress, labor productivity, power price and industry intensity are conducive to the decline of the power strength of the building materials industry. By 2020, the power intensity of China's building materials industry will be significantly reduced, and even the current level of Japanese building materials industry can be achieved. a more active energy-saving policy is beneficial to reducing the power intensity of the industry and achieving greater power-saving potential. Sixth, the effect of industrial activity is the leading factor of the carbon dioxide emission in the building material industry, and the energy intensity effect is the main contribution to the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission in the building material industry. inter-fuel substitution is beneficial to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the industry. Energy conservation should be the main strategy to reduce the energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions in the industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.92;X322
，
本文編號：2316495
[Abstract]:At present, China is in the stage of rapid urbanization. After more than 30 years of reform and opening-up, China has become the world's first-largest consumer of energy and carbon dioxide. China's future energy needs will continue to grow due to the large population base and the high level of energy consumption of urban residents. By comparison with the developed countries, this paper has found that China's energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions are all subject to the development stage. A more rapid economic growth means lower energy use efficiency and requires sufficient and inexpensive energy as the support. It is the main characteristic of energy consumption structure in the stage of China's urbanization. However, taking into account the problems of energy scarcity, environmental pollution and climate change, the rapid growth of energy consumption caused by the rapid urbanization of urbanization will be a challenge to the sustainable growth of China's economy. Industry is a major contributor to China's energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. The development of urbanization must drive the construction of the infrastructure, and the expansion of the construction of the facilities on the foundation means the rising demand of the building materials such as cement, ceramics and glass. The construction material industry is one of the six high energy-consuming industries in China. The energy consumption in the industry accounts for about 9% of the national energy consumption, and the consumption of electric power accounts for about 6% of the total social consumption. The building material industry is also the pillar industry of China, and the added value of its industry contributes about 1% of GDP per year. The energy demand and carbon dioxide emission of the building material industry are characterized by stages, and the energy-saving and emission-reducing potential of the building material industry is of great significance to China's total energy demand control and low-carbon economic transformation. In the background of the urbanization, this paper uses the international comparison method to explore the characteristics of energy demand and carbon dioxide emission, and analyzes the relationship between economic growth and energy demand and carbon dioxide emission. The peak and inflection point of energy demand and carbon dioxide emission in China's urbanization stage are predicted. Furthermore, based on the building material industry, this paper mainly answers the following questions: what is the main factor to promote the energy demand of building materials in the stage of urbanization? in that case of different economic growth, what is the energy demand and energy saving of the building material industry? What is the power demand and power saving of the building material industry under different scenarios? What is the potential for a decline in the power strength of China's building materials compared to the Japanese construction industry with the highest efficiency? What are the main factors that affect the carbon dioxide emission of building materials and how big is the emission reduction potential of the industry? The main conclusions are as follows: First, China's energy demand reflects the characteristics of the stage. With the development of urbanization, China's energy consumption has increased at a high speed and its rigid growth. There is a U-type relationship between energy demand and economic development level. Second, in the stage of urbanization, carbon dioxide emissions have the characteristics of rigid growth. Economic growth, urbanization, energy intensity and demand for building materials are the main factors that affect China's carbon dioxide emissions. Energy conservation is the main means to reduce carbon dioxide. Third, the energy demand of building materials industry is mainly affected by economic growth. The improvement of energy prices, the progress of science and technology and the improvement of the per-capita productivity are both conducive to the reduction of energy demand for building materials. Fourth, the level of economic development is the main driving force of the growth of power consumption in the building materials industry, and the per-capita added value of the industry, the development intensity of the industry and the electric power price are the main factors that push the power consumption of the industry to drop. Fifth, technological progress, labor productivity, power price and industry intensity are conducive to the decline of the power strength of the building materials industry. By 2020, the power intensity of China's building materials industry will be significantly reduced, and even the current level of Japanese building materials industry can be achieved. a more active energy-saving policy is beneficial to reducing the power intensity of the industry and achieving greater power-saving potential. Sixth, the effect of industrial activity is the leading factor of the carbon dioxide emission in the building material industry, and the energy intensity effect is the main contribution to the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission in the building material industry. inter-fuel substitution is beneficial to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the industry. Energy conservation should be the main strategy to reduce the energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions in the industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.92;X322
，
本文編號：2316495
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/guanlilunwen/chengjian/2316495.html
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