【摘要】：正在飛速發(fā)展的中國(guó)城市化進(jìn)程正面臨著巨大挑戰(zhàn)，構(gòu)建生態(tài)城市成為實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的唯一出路。生態(tài)城市指標(biāo)體系是描述生態(tài)城市建設(shè)內(nèi)容、范圍，并體現(xiàn)生態(tài)城市發(fā)展的方向和重點(diǎn)的可度量參數(shù)的集合。科學(xué)的制定指標(biāo)體系、確定權(quán)重分配是合理地進(jìn)行生態(tài)城市評(píng)價(jià)、正確引導(dǎo)生態(tài)城市發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)與前提。生態(tài)城指標(biāo)體系的作用并不僅限于評(píng)價(jià)，其更有意義的作用應(yīng)當(dāng)是對(duì)生態(tài)城市建設(shè)發(fā)展的積極引導(dǎo)。根據(jù)指標(biāo)體系建立生態(tài)城市發(fā)展決策模型，從而對(duì)生態(tài)城市發(fā)展作出最優(yōu)決策，使其發(fā)展最符合指標(biāo)體系的要求，應(yīng)當(dāng)是有意義且符合生態(tài)城市發(fā)展需求的。 本文首先對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外多個(gè)生態(tài)城市指標(biāo)體系進(jìn)行對(duì)比研究，根據(jù)重慶市發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀與自身特色，采用專家咨詢法建立重慶市生態(tài)城市評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系框架。然后通過(guò)問(wèn)卷方式獲取專家個(gè)體權(quán)重分配意見(jiàn)，利用層次分析法構(gòu)造140個(gè)判斷矩陣并進(jìn)行處理，得到一級(jí)指標(biāo)、六類二級(jí)指標(biāo)各20個(gè)相對(duì)權(quán)重關(guān)系分配函數(shù)。引入群決策中一致性分析的思想，計(jì)算各類權(quán)重分配函數(shù)兩兩之間的相似系數(shù)共1995個(gè)，并以此構(gòu)造7個(gè)20階相似矩陣，計(jì)算得每個(gè)專家在每類指標(biāo)權(quán)重分配時(shí)的可信度，作為群體專家意見(jiàn)集結(jié)階段的專家權(quán)重，以此對(duì)20位專家的分配函數(shù)進(jìn)行融合，從而確定生態(tài)城市評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的權(quán)重體系。最后根據(jù)所建立的生態(tài)城市評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，用證據(jù)理論建立生態(tài)城市發(fā)展方案決策模型，利用證據(jù)理論對(duì)不確定信息表達(dá)的能力，使模型能在不完全信息下作出科學(xué)合理的決策，并結(jié)合算例對(duì)模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。 本文所建立的重慶市生態(tài)城市評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系分為三級(jí)結(jié)構(gòu)，，由土地資源利用及空間、建筑、資源與環(huán)境、交通、工業(yè)、城市運(yùn)營(yíng)管理六個(gè)指標(biāo)大類組成，二級(jí)指標(biāo)23個(gè)，指標(biāo)項(xiàng)共59個(gè)。由本文權(quán)重模型結(jié)合20位專家所給出的意見(jiàn)，計(jì)算得重慶市生態(tài)城市評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系中各類指標(biāo)相對(duì)權(quán)重關(guān)系，指標(biāo)大類中“建筑”和“資源與環(huán)境”分別占體系權(quán)重的27.7%、26.9%，為體系中的絕對(duì)重點(diǎn)；土地資源利用及空間也賦予了較大權(quán)重，體現(xiàn)了“山城”重慶對(duì)于土地資源的重視；對(duì)于二級(jí)指標(biāo)，建筑節(jié)能、場(chǎng)地開(kāi)發(fā)、產(chǎn)業(yè)綠色化、綠色社區(qū)建設(shè)、公共交通、可再生能源利用、區(qū)域自然環(huán)境等都被賦予了相對(duì)較大的權(quán)重。本文所建立的DS/AHP決策模型可很好地應(yīng)用于生態(tài)城市發(fā)展方案決策，在不完全信息下個(gè)體決策者可表達(dá)決策的不確定性的同時(shí)，對(duì)來(lái)自不同決策個(gè)體的證據(jù)進(jìn)行合成后可顯著降低決策的不確定性，使基于信任度和似然度形成的決策更一致，從而使最終決策更明確。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of China's urbanization process is facing a huge challenge, the construction of an ecological city is the only way to achieve sustainable development. The eco-city index system is a set of measurable parameters that describe the content and scope of eco-city construction and reflect the direction and emphasis of eco-city development. Scientific index system and weight distribution are the basis and prerequisite for the rational evaluation of ecological city and the correct guidance for the development of ecological city. The function of eco-city index system is not limited to evaluation, its more meaningful role should be to guide the construction and development of eco-city. The decision model of eco-city development is established according to the index system, so as to make the optimal decision on the development of ecological city and make its development accord with the requirements of the index system, which should be meaningful and meet the needs of ecological city development. In this paper, several eco-city index systems at home and abroad are compared and studied. According to the present situation of Chongqing's development and its own characteristics, the expert consultation method is used to establish the evaluation index system framework of Chongqing's eco-city. Then the expert weight allocation opinions are obtained by questionnaire, 140 judgment matrices are constructed and processed by AHP, and the first class index and 20 relative weight relation distribution functions of six secondary indexes are obtained. By introducing the idea of consistency analysis in group decision making, the similarity coefficients between two pairs of weight distribution functions are calculated in 1995, and seven similar matrices of order 20 are constructed, and the reliability of each expert in the weight distribution of each index is calculated. As the expert weight in the gathering stage of group expert opinion, the distribution function of 20 experts is fused to determine the weight system of eco-city evaluation index system. Finally, according to the established ecological city evaluation index system, the decision model of ecological city development scheme is established by evidence theory, and the ability of evidence theory to express uncertain information is used. The model can make scientific and reasonable decision under incomplete information, and the model is verified by an example. The evaluation index system of ecological city in Chongqing is divided into three levels. It is composed of land resource utilization and space, construction, resources and environment, traffic, industry, urban operation and management. The total number of indicators is 59. Based on the weight model of this paper and the opinions given by 20 experts, the relative weight relations of various indexes in the evaluation index system of Chongqing eco-city are calculated. "Building" and "resources and environment" account for 27.726.9 of the total weight of the system respectively, which is the absolute focus of the system, and the use of land resources and space are also given greater weight, which reflects the importance attached to land resources by "mountain cities" in Chongqing. For secondary indicators, building energy conservation, site development, green industry, green community construction, public transport, renewable energy use, regional natural environment and so on have been given a relatively large weight. The DS/AHP decision model established in this paper can be well applied to the decision making of eco-city development scheme, while the uncertainty of decision can be expressed by individual decision makers under incomplete information. After combining evidence from different decision making individuals, the uncertainty of decision can be significantly reduced, and the decision based on trust and likelihood can be more consistent, thus making the final decision more definite.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TU984.115

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李英;陶玲;;生態(tài)城市綜合評(píng)價(jià)體系的AHP模型設(shè)計(jì)與應(yīng)用研究[J];環(huán)境科學(xué)與管理;2007年02期

2 耿立恩,潘旭峰,李曉雷,祝嘉光;Dempster-Shafer證據(jù)推理在數(shù)據(jù)融合中的應(yīng)用[J];北京理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);1997年02期

3 倪國(guó)強(qiáng),梁好臣;基于Dempster-Shafer證據(jù)理論的數(shù)據(jù)融合技術(shù)研究[J];北京理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2001年05期

4 宋永昌,戚仁海,由文輝,王祥榮,祝龍彪;生態(tài)城市的指標(biāo)體系與評(píng)價(jià)方法[J];城市環(huán)境與城市生態(tài);1999年05期

5 曾勇,沈根祥,黃沈發(fā),王敏;上海城市生態(tài)系統(tǒng)健康評(píng)價(jià)[J];長(zhǎng)江流域資源與環(huán)境;2005年02期

6 陳天璐,闕沛文;信息融合多傳感器可信度的確定方法及應(yīng)用[J];測(cè)試技術(shù)學(xué)報(bào);2005年01期

7 傅艷華,唐加福,張化光;基于證據(jù)推理的項(xiàng)目投資綜合評(píng)價(jià)與決策方法[J];東北大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2005年09期

8 張山鷹,潘泉,張洪才;證據(jù)推理沖突問(wèn)題研究[J];航空學(xué)報(bào);2001年04期

9 焦勝,曾光明,何理,曹麻茹,劉鴻亮;生態(tài)城市指標(biāo)體系的不確定性研究[J];湖南大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2004年01期

10 李繼軍;潘亞;;群體決策和AHP法結(jié)合確定指標(biāo)權(quán)重[J];基建優(yōu)化;2006年06期

本文編號(hào)：2180197