【摘要】：水資源是人類不可或缺的生活資料，也是促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、社會進步和實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展目標的最重要的物質(zhì)保證。但是包括我國在內(nèi)的世界上許多國家和地區(qū)都一直面臨著越來越突出的水資源短缺、水質(zhì)污染嚴重等問題，讓世界各國越來越重視水資源的合理規(guī)劃和利用。經(jīng)過幾十年的發(fā)展，需水量預(yù)測已經(jīng)在供水系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃、設(shè)計、節(jié)水工作等相關(guān)領(lǐng)域中得到了廣泛應(yīng)用并發(fā)揮了重要作用。與歐美發(fā)達國家相比，我國經(jīng)濟不發(fā)達、人口眾多的國情決定了我國城鎮(zhèn)需水量預(yù)測的情況更為復(fù)雜，目前仍無法找到統(tǒng)一的需水量預(yù)測方法能夠適用于我國各個城鎮(zhèn)的用水情況。 本文立足于解決我國需水量預(yù)測在使用中存在的問題，提出適用于我國不同用水情況的城鎮(zhèn)需水量預(yù)測通用公式并用此公式預(yù)測深圳市規(guī)劃年份的需水量。主要內(nèi)容如下： 一、簡要介紹國內(nèi)外水資源現(xiàn)狀和需水量預(yù)測的研究動態(tài)，，明確城鎮(zhèn)需水量預(yù)測方法研究對一個城鎮(zhèn)、一個流域或是全國范圍內(nèi)實現(xiàn)供水安全，保證我國可持續(xù)發(fā)展等方面的重要意義。 二、對城鎮(zhèn)需水量預(yù)測的常用方法進行簡要評價，找出它們在城鎮(zhèn)需水量預(yù)測中出現(xiàn)的問題，明確城鎮(zhèn)需水量預(yù)測要考慮的要點、基本原則和基本步驟。 三、對城鎮(zhèn)用水量的主要影響因素依次進行分析并明確需水量預(yù)測中最重要的影響因子，確定城鎮(zhèn)各部分用水量的預(yù)測方法，最后提出基于人口和GDP的城鎮(zhèn)需水量預(yù)測公式。 四、將城鎮(zhèn)需水量預(yù)測公式的應(yīng)用于深圳市規(guī)劃年的需水量預(yù)測。
[Abstract]:Water resources are the indispensable means of living for human beings, and also the most important material guarantee for promoting economic development, social progress and achieving the goal of sustainable development. However, many countries and regions in the world, including China, have been faced with more and more outstanding water resources shortage, serious water pollution and other problems, which make the countries in the world pay more and more attention to the rational planning and utilization of water resources. After decades of development, water demand prediction has been widely used and played an important role in water supply system planning, design, water saving and other related fields. Compared with the developed countries in Europe and the United States, the situation of our country's underdeveloped economy and large population determines that the forecasting of urban water demand in China is more complicated. At present, it is still impossible to find a unified forecasting method of water demand that can be applied to the situation of water use in every town of our country. Based on solving the problems existing in water demand prediction in China, this paper puts forward a general formula for urban water demand prediction suitable for different water use conditions in China, and uses this formula to predict the water demand of Shenzhen in the planning year. The main contents are as follows: firstly, the current situation of water resources at home and abroad and the research trends of water demand prediction are briefly introduced, and the research on urban water demand forecasting method is defined to realize water supply safety in a town, a river basin or a whole country. It is important to ensure the sustainable development of our country. Second, the common methods of urban water demand prediction are briefly evaluated, the problems they appear in urban water demand forecasting are found out, and the key points, basic principles and basic steps to be considered in urban water demand forecasting are clarified. Thirdly, the main influencing factors of urban water consumption are analyzed in turn, and the most important influencing factors in water demand prediction are defined, and the forecasting methods of water consumption in different parts of cities and towns are determined. Finally, the formula of urban water demand prediction based on population and GDP is put forward. Fourthly, the formula of urban water demand prediction is applied to the forecast of Shenzhen city water demand in planning year.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU991.31

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