本文選題：工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理��； 參考：《重慶大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：工程項(xiàng)目建設(shè)是一項(xiàng)復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)工程，其建設(shè)周期長(zhǎng)，涉及多個(gè)參與主體，包括業(yè)主、承包商、監(jiān)理方、設(shè)計(jì)單位、供應(yīng)方等，且所處內(nèi)外環(huán)境復(fù)雜，因此，工程項(xiàng)目實(shí)施過(guò)程將面臨多種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，傳統(tǒng)三大目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)受到嚴(yán)重威脅。作為工程項(xiàng)目三大目標(biāo)之一的工期，也不例外，研究顯示，90%的工程項(xiàng)目存在或多或少的工期延誤現(xiàn)象，可以說(shuō)提高工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平已經(jīng)成為各國(guó)研究人員及項(xiàng)目管理人員的共識(shí)。由于工程項(xiàng)目建設(shè)的系統(tǒng)性特征，，各工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素之間并不是孤立存在的，而是相互關(guān)聯(lián)、相互作用的。因此，系統(tǒng)的分析工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作用機(jī)理及作用路徑，尋找關(guān)鍵工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作用路徑及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，是當(dāng)前研究人員及項(xiàng)目管理人員迫切需要解決的問(wèn)題之一。 論文首先結(jié)合多米諾骨牌理論和能量釋放理論，從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)生成、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)共生、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞三個(gè)層面，探討了一般風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作用機(jī)理，由此入手，在界定工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概念的基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)工程項(xiàng)目實(shí)際特點(diǎn)，從三個(gè)層級(jí)劃分出工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源，并分析了工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作用機(jī)理。 其次，論文綜合運(yùn)用案例研究、文獻(xiàn)研究、專家訪談的方法，識(shí)別出工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，并基于工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作用機(jī)理對(duì)識(shí)別出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行分類，最終確定出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單。 再次，通過(guò)深入研究相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)以及訪談專家，識(shí)別出工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作用路徑，構(gòu)建工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作用路徑結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型，并通過(guò)問(wèn)卷調(diào)查的方法收集工期延誤的實(shí)際案例，對(duì)模型適配度進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)，根據(jù)檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果不斷修正，得到與實(shí)際情況較匹配的模型。 最后，對(duì)經(jīng)過(guò)檢驗(yàn)的工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作用路徑模型，深入分析每一條風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作用路徑和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，根據(jù)分析結(jié)果，識(shí)別出關(guān)鍵作用路徑和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。在此基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合我國(guó)目前建筑業(yè)的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況，分別從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)阻斷和防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的角度提出針對(duì)性的工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范措施。 工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生源頭多、作用路徑廣、涉及面寬，如果只針對(duì)單一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素采取防范措施，則難以掌控全局。論文深入分析工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作用路徑，旨在“從點(diǎn)到線”對(duì)工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行防范，為工程項(xiàng)目管理人員提供參考，具有較好的理論意義和實(shí)踐意義。
[Abstract]:The construction of engineering project is a complex system engineering, its construction period is long, involves a number of participants, including the owner, contractor, supervisor, design unit, supplier and so on, and the internal and external environment is complex, so, The implementation process of engineering project will face many kinds of risks, and the realization of the traditional three goals will be seriously threatened. As one of the three major objectives of the project, the construction period is no exception. The research shows that 90% of the projects have more or less delay in the construction period. It can be said that improving the level of project risk management has become the consensus of researchers and project managers. Because of the systematic characteristics of project construction, the risk factors do not exist in isolation, but are interrelated and interact with each other. Therefore, it is one of the urgent problems for researchers and project managers to analyze the mechanism and path of duration risk and find out the key risk path and risk factors. Firstly, combining domino theory and energy release theory, this paper discusses the mechanism of general risk action from three levels: risk generation, risk symbiosis and risk transmission. From this point of view, the concept of duration risk is defined. According to the actual characteristics of the project, the source of the duration risk is divided into three levels, and the mechanism of the duration risk is analyzed. Secondly, the paper synthetically uses the method of case study, literature study and expert interview to identify the risk factors of the time limit, and classify the risk factors based on the mechanism of the risk of the time limit, and finally determine the risk list. Thirdly, through the in-depth study of relevant literature and interviews with experts, identify the duration risk path, construct the duration risk path structure equation model, and collect the actual cases of the delay by questionnaire. The adaptability of the model is tested, and the model matching with the actual situation is obtained according to the result of the test. Finally, every risk action path and risk factor are analyzed in depth for the tested risk path model, and the key action path and risk factor are identified according to the analysis results. On this basis, combined with the current situation of construction industry in our country, this paper puts forward some measures to prevent the construction period risk from the angle of risk blocking and risk source prevention. The duration risk has many sources, wide action path and wide scope, so it is difficult to control the whole situation if we only take preventive measures against a single risk factor. The purpose of this paper is to prevent the construction period risk from point to line, and to provide a reference for the project manager, which has good theoretical and practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TU722

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