本文選題：災(zāi)后關(guān)鍵道路中斷　切入點：通車時間預(yù)測模型　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國是自然災(zāi)害多發(fā)國，每年均發(fā)生大量自然災(zāi)害。根據(jù)《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒》,僅僅2006年就發(fā)生了10萬起地質(zhì)災(zāi)害（指泥石流、山體滑坡等災(zāi)害）。無論是非特大型自然災(zāi)害，還是特大型的自然災(zāi)害均會引起受災(zāi)地區(qū)關(guān)鍵道路中斷的現(xiàn)象。特大型自然災(zāi)害會引起該地區(qū)全部道路中斷，在第一時間搶修了一些道路后，該地區(qū)進入恢復(fù)重建，其所修建的道路往往也是關(guān)鍵道路。關(guān)鍵道路中斷對于受災(zāi)地區(qū)在建工程項目影響巨大，故合理地研究在建工程項目的優(yōu)化，使其影響降至最低極為重要。對大量文獻閱讀的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合2008年汶川地震和每年均遭受臺風地區(qū)災(zāi)后在建工程項目，根據(jù)其受道路中斷影響的實際情況進行了以下的3項系統(tǒng)研究。 1.針對災(zāi)后道路的通車時間難以預(yù)測的情況，建立了基于GM(1,1)的災(zāi)后道路通車時間預(yù)測模型，并對所建立的模型編寫matlab算法語言程序使其計算智能化，擺脫了人工計算繁瑣甚至難以計算的缺點。同時利用SVM方法對通車時間預(yù)測模型的結(jié)果進行了比較分析。 2.針對災(zāi)后關(guān)鍵道路中斷期工程設(shè)備運輸受阻的情況，建立分項工程損益效用的方案選優(yōu)模型。與傳統(tǒng)的期望效用理論選優(yōu)模型不同，該模型更加客觀地體現(xiàn)需要使用工程設(shè)備的分項工程影響，站在分項工程對整體工程項目影響角度建立方案選優(yōu)模型。同時對解決期望效用理論不足的主流方法“前景理論”做了不適應(yīng)分析，并提出了方案進一步選優(yōu)需注意的事項。 3.針對道路中斷期間原材料價格出現(xiàn)波動的實際狀況，對工程項目相應(yīng)受影響工序建立庫存采購和施工組織設(shè)計優(yōu)化模型。庫存采購的優(yōu)化模型是基于EOQ模型的調(diào)整；施工組織設(shè)計優(yōu)化模型利用了動態(tài)規(guī)劃模型的求解結(jié)果，，基于求解結(jié)果的分析建立了簡化的優(yōu)化模型。簡化后的優(yōu)化模型不僅克服了動態(tài)規(guī)劃的“維災(zāi)”現(xiàn)象，而且能更加貼近實際的應(yīng)用。
[Abstract]:China is a country prone to natural disasters, and a large number of natural disasters occur every year. According to the China Statistical Yearbook, in 2006 alone, 100,000 geological disasters (such as debris flows, landslides, etc.) occurred. It is also true that major natural disasters will cause the disruption of critical roads in the affected areas. Major natural disasters will cause all roads in the region to be disrupted, and after some roads have been urgently repaired, the area will enter the process of rehabilitation and reconstruction. The road it built is often also a key road. The interruption of the critical road has a great impact on the projects under construction in the affected areas, so it is reasonable to study the optimization of the projects under construction. It is extremely important to minimize its impact. On the basis of reading a great deal of literature, combined with the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008 and the ongoing construction projects in the typhoon area after the 2008 earthquake, According to the actual situation affected by road interruption, the following three systematic studies are carried out. 1. In view of the difficult to predict the opening time of the post-disaster road, a prediction model of the opening time of the post-disaster road is established based on GM-1), and the matlab algorithm language program is written to make the calculation intelligent. The method of SVM is used to compare and analyze the results of the traffic time prediction model. 2. In view of the obstructed transportation of engineering equipment during the critical road interruption period after the disaster, a scheme optimization model of the profit and loss utility of the sub-project is established. The model is different from the traditional optimal model of expected utility theory. The model more objectively reflects the impact of sub-projects requiring the use of engineering equipment. At the same time, the paper makes an unsuitable analysis on the mainstream method "foreground theory", which solves the shortage of expected utility theory, and puts forward the matters needing attention in the further scheme selection. 3. Aiming at the fluctuation of raw material price during road interruption, the optimization model of inventory purchase and construction organization design is established for the affected working procedure of engineering project. The optimization model of inventory purchase is based on the adjustment of EOQ model. The optimization model of construction organization design utilizes the solution result of dynamic programming model, and establishes a simplified optimization model based on the analysis of solution result. The simplified optimization model not only overcomes the phenomenon of "dimension disaster" in dynamic programming. And can be more close to the actual application.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU71

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