本文關(guān)鍵詞：城鎮(zhèn)化下我國北方省份集中供熱耗煤預(yù)測及節(jié)能潛力分析　出處：《中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 城鎮(zhèn)化 集中供熱 供熱面積 耗煤預(yù)測 節(jié)能潛力

【摘要】：城鎮(zhèn)化是社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必然選擇，我國正處于城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)快速發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵時期，在不放緩“量”的同時,加強(qiáng)對“質(zhì)”的提升,對城鎮(zhèn)化下亟待解決的問題的研究具有較強(qiáng)的指導(dǎo)和現(xiàn)實意義。集中供熱是北方省份人們生活安定與和諧的保障，是民生建設(shè)的重要內(nèi)容，且集中供熱的優(yōu)劣關(guān)系到能源、環(huán)境和城市建設(shè)等方面，集中供熱耗煤量在能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)中占重要的比例，2011年我國集中供熱耗煤就占了全國總生活用煤的35%。本文對城鎮(zhèn)化下集中供熱耗煤的預(yù)測分析研究，，提供了對城鎮(zhèn)化下的集中供熱耗煤量的預(yù)測方法,并對不同情境下的城鎮(zhèn)化的集中供熱耗煤有一個直觀、量化的呈現(xiàn)，這對集中供熱新工程的建立，對供熱所耗較為清潔的能源的選擇和消耗量的估算也是一個借鑒和參考。 本文從我國城鎮(zhèn)化和北方省份集中供熱的現(xiàn)實分析出發(fā)，利用計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的方法從眾多影響供熱耗煤的因素中得到最顯著的因素，然后從人口數(shù)量的角度對住宅面積和非住宅集中供熱面積進(jìn)行預(yù)測研究。對住宅供熱面積的研究從城鎮(zhèn)化的要求和特點著手，把城鎮(zhèn)中的人口分為四種，并各自根據(jù)演化規(guī)律利用灰色系統(tǒng)、指數(shù)增長模型、半指數(shù)增長模型Logistic模型等方法對人口數(shù)量進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計校準(zhǔn)和預(yù)測，進(jìn)而對集中供熱面積進(jìn)行預(yù)測。并通過對比模型預(yù)測值和現(xiàn)實數(shù)據(jù)的差值，分析查找原因，以2011年為基年進(jìn)行調(diào)整優(yōu)化。在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步通過對耗煤計量公式的解析，對產(chǎn)暖期天數(shù)、建筑物耗量指標(biāo)、供暖鍋爐和管網(wǎng)效率分析得出現(xiàn)實未來二十多年的集中供熱耗煤量，并通過調(diào)整棚戶區(qū)改造計劃和農(nóng)村人口向城鎮(zhèn)遷移速率來預(yù)測不同情景下對采暖耗煤量的影響。最后對所發(fā)現(xiàn)的問題做出說明和建議，對可能的創(chuàng)新點和不足做出總結(jié)和展望。 本文的主要結(jié)論有：集中供熱的最主要的影響因素是集中供熱面積，氣候、管網(wǎng)長度和能源利用率的影響并不顯著。集中供熱面積中非住宅面積受到城鎮(zhèn)人口數(shù)量的顯著影響，住宅面積則依賴于對城鎮(zhèn)化下棚戶區(qū)居民、農(nóng)村向城鎮(zhèn)的轉(zhuǎn)移人口、城鎮(zhèn)原老樓房的居民和城鎮(zhèn)暫住人口的預(yù)測。城鎮(zhèn)化的建設(shè)會帶來集中供熱面積的增加，2011年全國集中供熱面積為4713百萬平方米，至2025年達(dá)到11957百萬平方米，平均每年增長765.73百萬平米。集中供熱面積的增加帶動了集中供熱耗煤的增加，能源的需求量的增大，在標(biāo)準(zhǔn)集中供熱耗煤情境下，2011年全國集中供熱耗煤為5860萬噸，2025年達(dá)到29126萬噸，特別是在加快棚戶區(qū)改造計劃，在2017年各省均完成棚戶區(qū)改造時，集中供熱耗煤量在標(biāo)準(zhǔn)情境下至2025年會增加68.63萬噸，農(nóng)村人口向城鎮(zhèn)轉(zhuǎn)移每年增加20%的情境下全國的集中供熱耗煤量在2025年將會增加18569萬噸。 城鎮(zhèn)化在提高了人們生活質(zhì)量，帶來了能源需求增加的同時也會在某些方面由于規(guī)模效應(yīng)節(jié)約了能源，減少了對環(huán)境的壓力，存在著較大的節(jié)能潛力。大規(guī)模區(qū)域鍋爐房、熱點聯(lián)產(chǎn)取代家庭式的、散落的、效率較低的小鍋爐房的供熱將大大提高了能源的使用效率。對比三種情境下集中供熱耗煤做出預(yù)測和比較分析，可以得出在節(jié)能前后北方各地單位面積的節(jié)煤量，北方省份僅2011年就可節(jié)約1500萬噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤，節(jié)能后的情境比現(xiàn)實情境更是可以節(jié)約6135萬噸。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the inevitable choice of social and economic development, China is in a critical period of rapid development of urbanization, in the slow "quantity" at the same time, strengthen the improvement of "quality", and has strong guidance and practical significance of the research on Urbanization under the urgent problem. The central heating is the northern provinces people live in peace and harmony of security, is an important content of the construction of people's livelihood, and central heating directly related to energy, environment and city construction, heating coal consumption accounted for an important proportion in the energy consumption structure, research analysis and forecast in 2011 China's central heating coal consumption accounted for the total coal consumption of life on the urbanization of central heating coal 35%. the prediction method provides a centralized heating of urbanization under the coal consumption, and central heating in different situations of urbanization coal consumption has an intuitive, quantitative This is a reference to the establishment of a new central heating project and the selection of more clean energy for heating and the estimation of the consumption.
This paper from the reality of China's urbanization and the northern provinces of central heating, the use of econometric methods are the most significant factors from many factors affect the heating coal consumption, and then from the population of residential and non residential area of central heating area of the forecast. Research on residential heating area from the requirements of urbanization and the characteristics of the town's population is divided into four types, and according to their respective evolution by grey system, exponential growth model, semi exponential growth model Logistic model for statistical calibration and prediction of the population, and to predict the central heating area. By comparing the difference of model predictive value and reality data analysis, find the reasons, to 2011 as the base year of adjustment and optimization. On the basis of further analysis of the coal consumption measurement formula, on the production of warm period construction Building materials consumption index, heating boiler and pipe network efficiency analysis of central heating to the real future more than 20 years of coal consumption, and by adjusting the shantytowns plan and the rural population to urban migration rate to predict the effects of different scenarios of heating coal consumption. Finally make the instructions and suggestions on how to solve the problems, make summary and outlook of the possible innovation and deficiency.
The main conclusions of this paper are: the main factors of central heating effect is central heating area, climate, influence the length of pipeline and energy utilization rate is not obvious. The central heating area in the non residential area affected by the urban population, the residential area is dependent on the shantytowns of urbanization, the rural population transfer to the town of old buildings, forecast of urban residents and urban floating population. The construction of urbanization will bring about an increase in central heating area, in 2011 the national central heating area of 4 billion 713 million square meters, in 2025 to reach 11 billion 957 million square meters, an average annual increase of 765 million 730 thousand square meters. Increasing the central heating area increased to heating coal consumption, increasing energy demand, in the standard central heating coal consumption situation, in 2011 the national central heating coal consumption was 58 million 600 thousand tons, to 291 million 260 thousand tons in 2025, Especially in accelerating the shantytowns plan, in 2017 the provinces have completed the shantytowns, central heating coal consumption in the standard context to 2025 will increase to 686 thousand and 300 tons, the annual transfer of rural population to urban central heating increased 20% of the country's situation, coal consumption increased 185 million 690 thousand tons in 2025.
Urbanization in improving the quality of people's life, also brought increased demand for energy will be in some aspects because of scale effect and save energy, reduce the pressure on the environment, there is a great potential of energy saving. The large-scale regional boiler, cogeneration replace family, scattered, small boiler room heating and low efficiency. Will greatly improve the efficiency of energy use. A comparison of three situations of central heating coal consumption and make a comparative analysis of the prediction, it can be concluded that in the amount of coal saving energy before and after the north around the unit area, the northern provinces in 2011 alone can save 15 million tons of standard coal, energy saving after the situation is more than the real situation can save 61 million 350 thousand tons.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU995

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