【摘要】：經(jīng)過30多年的改革開放，中國市場經(jīng)濟逐漸表現(xiàn)出兩大特點：一是金融體系逐步得到建立和完善，資本市場得到了迅速發(fā)展，經(jīng)濟金融化程度不斷提高，資產(chǎn)價格對實體經(jīng)濟的影響日益明顯，金融加速器效用日益顯著。二是中國經(jīng)濟開放度逐漸擴大，國外經(jīng)濟因素對中國經(jīng)濟影響力日益劇增。 在此背景下，中央銀行為了達到穩(wěn)定物價水平、促進經(jīng)濟增長和就業(yè)、實現(xiàn)國際收支均衡等目標(biāo)，應(yīng)該采取何種貨幣政策規(guī)則？Friedman的單一貨幣規(guī)則，還是Taylor規(guī)則，還是采取已經(jīng)被眾多國家采取的通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制？貨幣政策規(guī)則應(yīng)該將資產(chǎn)價格、匯率等因素納入其中嗎？為回答以上問題，本文共分為六個部分： 第一章為緒論，闡述了選題的背景與意義，研究了金融摩擦和金融加速器的最新發(fā)展，分析了中國貨幣政策規(guī)則選擇的相關(guān)爭論。 第二章是對貨幣政策規(guī)則的理論分析。通過規(guī)則與相機抉擇之爭的回顧，說明貨幣政策操作是可信度和靈活性之間的權(quán)衡。其中分別研究了貨幣政策工具規(guī)則和貨幣政策目標(biāo)規(guī)則，前者主要包括Friedman規(guī)則、 Mccallum規(guī)則和Taylor規(guī)則，后者主要包括貨幣供應(yīng)量目標(biāo)制、匯率目標(biāo)制和通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制，并比較了各自的優(yōu)缺點。進一步討論了金融摩擦條件下貨幣政策規(guī)則的相關(guān)爭論。 第三章借鑒BGG（1999）模型和Nolan and Thoenissen(2009)模型，構(gòu)建了一個封閉經(jīng)濟下包含金融加速器的動態(tài)一般均衡框架，使這一框架包含了消費慣性、價格粘性、工資粘性和金融加速器等新凱恩斯貨幣經(jīng)濟學(xué)特征，為中國貨幣政策分析提供了分析框架。 第四章為封閉經(jīng)濟模型的動態(tài)分析和貨幣政策規(guī)則比較。在借鑒現(xiàn)有文獻和整理計算相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上，對模型中相關(guān)參數(shù)進行校準(zhǔn)，并在此基礎(chǔ)上進行了貨幣政策比較分析。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，單一規(guī)則優(yōu)于Taylor規(guī)則。利率平滑有利于降低通貨膨脹波動，但可能加大產(chǎn)出波動。貨幣政策對資產(chǎn)價格反應(yīng)，大多數(shù)情況下是加大了產(chǎn)出和通貨膨脹的波動。 第五章將帶金融加速器的動態(tài)一般均衡模型擴展到開放經(jīng)濟中，為匯率制度的比較創(chuàng)造了條件。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，除了在技術(shù)沖擊外，在其他沖擊下，與固定匯率制相比，浮動匯率制度下通貨膨脹和產(chǎn)出波動幅度要小一些。多數(shù)情況下，貨幣政策關(guān)注匯率波動，起到了加大通貨膨脹和產(chǎn)出波動的效果。 第六章為結(jié)論和建議。長期來看，中國應(yīng)向通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制過渡。資產(chǎn)價格波動應(yīng)由宏觀審慎政策和其他政策調(diào)控�？蓢L試建立信息機制，減少信息不對稱，以弱化金融加速器效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China's market economy has gradually shown two major characteristics: first, the financial system has been gradually established and improved, the capital market has been developed rapidly, and the degree of economic financialization has been continuously improved. The influence of asset price on the real economy is becoming more and more obvious, and the utility of financial accelerator is becoming more and more obvious. Second, China's economic openness is gradually expanding, and the influence of foreign economic factors on China's economy is increasing day by day. Under this background, in order to achieve the goal of stabilizing price level, promoting economic growth and employment, and achieving balance of payments, what kind of monetary policy rules should the central bank adopt? the single monetary rule of Friedman, or the Taylor rule, Or is it an inflation targeting system that has been adopted by many countries? Should monetary policy rules include asset prices, exchange rates and other factors? In order to answer the above questions, this paper is divided into six parts: the first chapter is the introduction, which expounds the background and significance of the topic, and studies the latest development of financial friction and financial accelerator. This paper analyzes the debate on the choice of monetary policy rules in China. The second chapter is the theoretical analysis of monetary policy rules. Through the review of the dispute between rules and choices, it is shown that monetary policy operation is a trade-off between credibility and flexibility. The monetary policy tool rules and monetary policy objective rules are studied respectively. the former mainly includes Friedman rules, Mccallum rules and Taylor rules, while the latter mainly includes money supply targeting, exchange rate targeting and inflation targeting. Their advantages and disadvantages are compared. Furthermore, the debate on the rules of monetary policy under the condition of financial friction is discussed. In the third chapter, based on BGG (1999) model and Nolan and Thoenissen (2009 model, a dynamic general equilibrium framework with financial accelerator in closed economy is constructed, which includes consumer inertia and price stickiness. The characteristics of new Keynesian monetary economics, such as wage stickiness and financial accelerator, provide an analytical framework for China's monetary policy analysis. The fourth chapter is the dynamic analysis of closed economic model and the comparison of monetary policy rules. On the basis of referring to the existing literature and sorting out the relevant data, the relevant parameters of the model are calibrated, and on this basis, the monetary policy is compared and analyzed. The results show that the single rule is superior to the Taylor rule. Smooth interest rates help reduce inflation volatility, but may increase output volatility. Monetary policy responds to asset prices, in most cases by increasing volatility in output and inflation. In the fifth chapter, the dynamic general equilibrium model with financial accelerator is extended to the open economy, which creates the conditions for the comparison of exchange rate regime. It is found that, in addition to the technical shock, under other shocks, compared with the fixed exchange rate system, the fluctuation range of inflation and output under the floating exchange rate system is smaller. In most cases, monetary policy focuses on exchange rate fluctuations, increasing inflation and output volatility. The sixth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion. In the long run, China should transition to inflation targeting. Asset price volatility should be regulated by macroprudential policies and other policies. We can try to establish information mechanism to reduce information asymmetry in order to weaken the financial accelerator effect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0;F832

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