【摘要】：利率政策是我國的一項重要的貨幣政策，銀行通過調(diào)整利率等方式來調(diào)節(jié)貨幣供應量。同時，銀行發(fā)展儲蓄業(yè)務，在一定程度上可以促進國民經(jīng)濟比例和結構的調(diào)整，引導消費，聚集經(jīng)濟建設資金。一般情況下，利率降低會使儲蓄減少，從而刺激投資，增強內(nèi)需，帶動國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。因此，，如何利用利率政策調(diào)節(jié)一國的投資、儲蓄和消費對宏觀經(jīng)濟的運行有著重大意義。2008年全球金融危機爆發(fā)以來，我國一直處于實際負利率的情況，但是我國的居民存款儲蓄余額卻一直處于高位，并持續(xù)快速增加。 本文關注中國實際負利率與高儲蓄并存的現(xiàn)狀，結合古典經(jīng)濟學和現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟學相關理論，根據(jù)《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒》和《中國金融年鑒》公布的數(shù)據(jù)，應用EViews計量工具對我國的實際利率與儲蓄的關系進行分析。 本文通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，我國1978年~2011年的實際利率和居民儲蓄存款增長率呈相反方向變動，實際利率的下降會引起儲蓄增長率的提高。在此基礎上，解釋了我國近年來實際負利率和高儲蓄并存的外部原因和內(nèi)在因素，及其對國民經(jīng)濟運行和居民日常經(jīng)濟生活的影響，并提出緩解這種并存現(xiàn)狀的可行性政策建議。本文認為必須通過健全我國金融市場體系和加強社會保障體系建設等政策配合，才能緩解我國的實際負利率和高儲蓄并存的矛盾，消除其帶來的不利影響。
[Abstract]:Interest rate policy is an important monetary policy in China. Banks regulate money supply by adjusting interest rate. At the same time, the development of savings business, to a certain extent, can promote the adjustment of the proportion and structure of the national economy, guide consumption, and gather funds for economic construction. In general, lower interest rates will reduce savings, thereby stimulating investment, enhancing domestic demand, and driving the development of the national economy. Therefore, how to use interest rate policy to regulate a country's investment, savings and consumption is of great significance to the operation of macro-economy. Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, China has been in the situation of real negative interest rates. However, the savings balance of residents in China has been in a high level, and continues to increase rapidly. This paper is concerned about the co-existence of real negative interest rate and high savings in China, combined with the relevant theories of classical economics and modern economics, and according to the data published in the China Statistical Yearbook and the China Financial Yearbook, The relationship between real interest rate and savings in China is analyzed by using EViews measurement tool. Through the research, it is found that the real interest rate and the growth rate of resident savings deposits in China change in the opposite direction from 1978 to 2011, and the decrease of real interest rate will lead to the increase of savings growth rate. On this basis, the paper explains the external causes and internal factors of the coexistence of real negative interest rate and high savings in China in recent years, and its influence on the operation of the national economy and the daily economic life of the residents. And put forward the feasibility policy recommendations to alleviate the co-existence of the current situation. This paper argues that only by perfecting the financial market system of our country and strengthening the construction of the social security system can the contradiction of the coexistence of the real negative interest rate and the high saving rate be alleviated and the adverse effects brought by it be eliminated.
【學位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0;F832.22

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