【摘要】：企業(yè)價值評估自引入我國以來，經(jīng)過多年的發(fā)展，逐漸形成了適合我國國情的評估方法體系，其應用范圍也擴展到了投資決策領域；它的發(fā)展和完善，為投資者在證券市場上如何選擇有價值的投資對象提供了一種理性的思路。招商銀行股份有限公司（下文均簡稱：招商銀行）由于其較高的盈利能力和發(fā)展?jié)摿�，一直受到投資者的關注和青睞；但自步入2012年以來，其股價表現(xiàn)欠佳，與投資者的心理期望較遠。因此本文欲通過運用合適的企業(yè)價值評估方法來對招商銀行的價值進行評估，進而判斷其企業(yè)價值到底是多少，以及它的投資前景如何。 首先，本文在對企業(yè)價值評估的相關概念和基本理論進行概述的基礎上，對企業(yè)價值評估中常使用的成本法（資產(chǎn)基礎法）、市場法、收益法、經(jīng)濟增加值法和實物期權法進行了闡述和分析，進而根據(jù)商業(yè)銀行的特殊性，，選取了經(jīng)濟增加值（EVA）法和市盈率法作為招商銀行企業(yè)價值的評估方法。其次，在開始評估前本文先對影響招商銀行企業(yè)價值的主要因素進行了分析，包括宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境的分析、銀行業(yè)發(fā)展的分析和招商銀行自身競爭力和財務狀況的分析，為下文的預測和評估打下基礎。再次，在以上分析的基礎上本文展開了評估工作：在遵循EVA法評估程序和市場法評估程序的基礎上，分別運用EVA法和市盈率法對招商銀行的企業(yè)價值進行了評估；在比較分析以上兩種評估方法的評估過程及結果的基礎上最終得出了招商銀行的企業(yè)價值評估結論。最后，本文對得出的招商銀行企業(yè)價值評估結果進行了應用分析，即通過對招商銀行投資風險的分析，來為投資者進行投資決策提供參考建議。 通過本文的評估，得出主要結論：（1）企業(yè)價值評估在投資領域?qū)絹碓骄哂袑嵱眯裕梢詾橥顿Y者進行投資決策提供幫助；（2）招商銀行當前的股票價格低于本文預測的股票價格區(qū)間，鑒于其較佳的盈利能力和發(fā)展?jié)摿�，建議投資者適機買入并持有該公司股票。
[Abstract]:Since it was introduced into China, after many years' development, the enterprise value evaluation has gradually formed the evaluation method system suitable for the national conditions of our country, and its application scope has also expanded to the investment decision-making field. Its development and perfection provide a rational way for investors to choose valuable investment objects in the securities market. China Merchants Bank Limited (hereinafter referred to as China Merchants Bank) has been concerned and favored by investors because of its high profitability and development potential; But since the start of 2012, its share price has underperformed, far from investors' psychological expectations. Therefore, this paper tries to evaluate the value of China Merchants Bank by using the appropriate method of enterprise value evaluation, and then determine the value of its enterprise value and its investment prospects. First of all, on the basis of summarizing the related concepts and basic theories of enterprise value evaluation, this paper discusses the cost method (asset base method), market method, income method, which are often used in enterprise value evaluation. The economic added value method and real option method are expounded and analyzed, and then according to the particularity of commercial banks, the economic added value (EVA) method and the price-earnings ratio method are selected as the evaluation methods of the enterprise value of China Merchants Bank. Secondly, this paper analyzes the main factors that affect the enterprise value of China Merchants Bank, including the analysis of macroeconomic environment, the development of banking industry, the competitiveness of China Merchants Bank and the financial situation of China Merchants Bank. To lay the foundation for the prediction and evaluation below. Thirdly, on the basis of the above analysis, this paper has carried out the evaluation work: on the basis of following the evaluation procedure of EVA method and market method, using EVA method and price-earnings ratio method to evaluate the enterprise value of China Merchants Bank; On the basis of comparing and analyzing the evaluation process and results of the above two evaluation methods, the conclusion of enterprise value evaluation of China Merchants Bank is obtained. Finally, this paper analyzes the value evaluation results of China Merchants Bank, that is, through the investment risk analysis of China Merchants Bank, to provide reference for investors to make investment decisions. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the evaluation of enterprise value will be more and more practical in the field of investment, which can help investors to make investment decisions; (2) the current stock price of China Merchants Bank is lower than the stock price range predicted in this paper. In view of its better profitability and development potential, investors are advised to buy and hold shares in the company.
【學位授予單位】：青島理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F832.33

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相關期刊論文 前10條

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本文編號：2401597