【摘要】：20世紀90年代以來，由于熱錢的大規(guī)模流入和逆轉(zhuǎn)，新興市場國家金融危機爆發(fā)的頻率也在逐步增加。隨著經(jīng)濟全球化和金融一體化的不斷發(fā)展，熱錢流動規(guī)模在增加，并且呈現(xiàn)出隱蔽性強的特點，因此如何更加有效地對熱錢進行監(jiān)管就成為各國穩(wěn)定金融安全需要解決的重要問題。 由于國際經(jīng)濟形勢的變化和世界對中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展預期的改變，熱錢在我國呈現(xiàn)出了先流入后流出的狀態(tài)，即自2003-2011年，我國經(jīng)濟增長勢頭強勁，人民幣升值預期不斷增加，隨著我國資本項目自由化程度的不斷提高，熱錢流入國內(nèi)的規(guī)模在增加，熱錢在我國整體呈現(xiàn)凈流入狀態(tài)。而在2011年下半年，我國人民幣匯率變化趨勢和預期也開始分化，出于避險動機，我國海外人民幣遭到拋售，市場流動性壓力大增，我國的外匯占款也出現(xiàn)了連續(xù)3個月的負增長，這些跡象都表明熱錢在逃離我國，，我國熱錢流動的波動性增加。本文就是在這種背景下研究進入我國變化莫測的熱錢所造成的影響。熱錢大量充斥在我國的房地產(chǎn)，股票市場上，造成了經(jīng)濟的不穩(wěn)定，嚴重影響著我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展，而熱錢流動方向的逆轉(zhuǎn)更是引發(fā)金融危機的導火線，對熱錢進行有效監(jiān)管是我國現(xiàn)階段必須面對和解決的難題。 本文從熱錢的定義出發(fā)，比較分析其規(guī)模估算方法，得出熱錢變化趨勢及我國熱錢的現(xiàn)狀。接著分析了熱錢流入我國的途徑，并指出它通過經(jīng)常項目、資本項目以及非法渠道三種途徑流入我國。又從國家宏觀調(diào)控政策和我國微觀經(jīng)濟市場包括外證券市場、房地產(chǎn)市場等角度分析了熱錢流動的影響效應。最后從短期性和長期性兩個方面提出了完善我國熱錢監(jiān)管的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the frequency of financial crises in emerging market countries has increased gradually due to the large inflow and reversal of hot money. With the continuous development of economic globalization and financial integration, the scale of hot money flow is increasing, and it has the characteristics of strong concealment. Therefore, how to supervise hot money more effectively has become an important problem to be solved in order to stabilize financial security. As a result of the changes in the international economic situation and the changes in the world's expectations for China's economic development, hot money has shown a state of first inflow and then outflow in China. That is, since 2003-2011, China's economic growth momentum has been strong, and the expectation of RMB appreciation has been increasing. With the increasing liberalization of capital account in China, the scale of hot money flowing into China is increasing, and the hot money is in a net inflow state in our country as a whole. In the second half of 2011, the trend and expectations of the RMB exchange rate in China began to diverge. As a result of risk-averse motives, China's overseas RMB was sold off, and the market liquidity pressure increased greatly. China's foreign exchange accounts also show a negative growth for three consecutive months, all of which indicate that hot money is fleeing China, and the volatility of hot money flows in China is increasing. This paper is in this context to study the impact of unpredictable hot money into China. Hot money is flooded in the real estate and stock market of our country, causing economic instability, seriously affecting the development of our economy, and the reversal of hot money flow is the trigger of the financial crisis. The effective supervision of hot money is a difficult problem that our country must face and solve at the present stage. Based on the definition of hot money, this paper compares and analyses its scale estimation method, and obtains the trend of hot money change and the present situation of hot money in China. Then it analyzes the ways of hot money flowing into China, and points out that hot money flows into China through three ways: current account, capital account and illegal channels. The effect of hot money flow is also analyzed from the point of view of the national macro-control policy and the microeconomic market, including the foreign securities market and the real estate market. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to improve the supervision of hot money in our country from two aspects: short-term and long-term.
【學位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F831.7

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 相立田;;論國際游資在我國的流動途徑及監(jiān)管對策[J];北方經(jīng)濟;2010年09期

2 楊繼;;國際熱錢對我國經(jīng)濟的沖擊及防治措施[J];當代經(jīng)濟研究;2010年05期

3 張明;徐以升;;全口徑測算中國當前的熱錢規(guī)模[J];當代亞太;2008年04期

4 石艾馨;蕭琛;;1991～2010年熱錢流入中國的動因分析[J];國際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索;2011年08期

5 林源;“國際熱錢”流入的風險及監(jiān)管對策[J];海南金融;2004年01期

6 任海艦;;金融危機背景下熱錢流入我國的規(guī)模測算與趨勢分析[J];海南金融;2009年03期

7 趙彥志;;境外“熱錢”、人民幣匯率與物價水平[J];經(jīng)濟學動態(tài);2011年04期

8 蘇劍;童立;;近年來我國熱錢流入規(guī)模的估算[J];經(jīng)濟學動態(tài);2011年11期

9 張明;;當前熱錢流入中國的規(guī)模與渠道[J];國際金融;2008年07期

10 榮毅宏;;國際“熱錢”輸入渠道、規(guī)模及監(jiān)管對策[J];金融教學與研究;2008年01期

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 鄭琳;國際熱錢法律監(jiān)管問題研究[D];西南政法大學;2009年

本文編號：2375417