發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-12 23:16

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代以來，由于熱錢的大規(guī)模流入和逆轉(zhuǎn)，新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)的頻率也在逐步增加。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化和金融一體化的不斷發(fā)展，熱錢流動(dòng)規(guī)模在增加，并且呈現(xiàn)出隱蔽性強(qiáng)的特點(diǎn)，因此如何更加有效地對(duì)熱錢進(jìn)行監(jiān)管就成為各國(guó)穩(wěn)定金融安全需要解決的重要問題。 由于國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的變化和世界對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展預(yù)期的改變，熱錢在我國(guó)呈現(xiàn)出了先流入后流出的狀態(tài)，即自2003-2011年，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)勁，人民幣升值預(yù)期不斷增加，隨著我國(guó)資本項(xiàng)目自由化程度的不斷提高，熱錢流入國(guó)內(nèi)的規(guī)模在增加，熱錢在我國(guó)整體呈現(xiàn)凈流入狀態(tài)。而在2011年下半年，我國(guó)人民幣匯率變化趨勢(shì)和預(yù)期也開始分化，出于避險(xiǎn)動(dòng)機(jī)，我國(guó)海外人民幣遭到拋售，市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性壓力大增，我國(guó)的外匯占款也出現(xiàn)了連續(xù)3個(gè)月的負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，這些跡象都表明熱錢在逃離我國(guó)，，我國(guó)熱錢流動(dòng)的波動(dòng)性增加。本文就是在這種背景下研究進(jìn)入我國(guó)變化莫測(cè)的熱錢所造成的影響。熱錢大量充斥在我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)，股票市場(chǎng)上，造成了經(jīng)濟(jì)的不穩(wěn)定，嚴(yán)重影響著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，而熱錢流動(dòng)方向的逆轉(zhuǎn)更是引發(fā)金融危機(jī)的導(dǎo)火線，對(duì)熱錢進(jìn)行有效監(jiān)管是我國(guó)現(xiàn)階段必須面對(duì)和解決的難題。 本文從熱錢的定義出發(fā)，比較分析其規(guī)模估算方法，得出熱錢變化趨勢(shì)及我國(guó)熱錢的現(xiàn)狀。接著分析了熱錢流入我國(guó)的途徑，并指出它通過經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目、資本項(xiàng)目以及非法渠道三種途徑流入我國(guó)。又從國(guó)家宏觀調(diào)控政策和我國(guó)微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)市場(chǎng)包括外證券市場(chǎng)、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)等角度分析了熱錢流動(dòng)的影響效應(yīng)。最后從短期性和長(zhǎng)期性兩個(gè)方面提出了完善我國(guó)熱錢監(jiān)管的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the frequency of financial crises in emerging market countries has increased gradually due to the large inflow and reversal of hot money. With the continuous development of economic globalization and financial integration, the scale of hot money flow is increasing, and it has the characteristics of strong concealment. Therefore, how to supervise hot money more effectively has become an important problem to be solved in order to stabilize financial security. As a result of the changes in the international economic situation and the changes in the world's expectations for China's economic development, hot money has shown a state of first inflow and then outflow in China. That is, since 2003-2011, China's economic growth momentum has been strong, and the expectation of RMB appreciation has been increasing. With the increasing liberalization of capital account in China, the scale of hot money flowing into China is increasing, and the hot money is in a net inflow state in our country as a whole. In the second half of 2011, the trend and expectations of the RMB exchange rate in China began to diverge. As a result of risk-averse motives, China's overseas RMB was sold off, and the market liquidity pressure increased greatly. China's foreign exchange accounts also show a negative growth for three consecutive months, all of which indicate that hot money is fleeing China, and the volatility of hot money flows in China is increasing. This paper is in this context to study the impact of unpredictable hot money into China. Hot money is flooded in the real estate and stock market of our country, causing economic instability, seriously affecting the development of our economy, and the reversal of hot money flow is the trigger of the financial crisis. The effective supervision of hot money is a difficult problem that our country must face and solve at the present stage. Based on the definition of hot money, this paper compares and analyses its scale estimation method, and obtains the trend of hot money change and the present situation of hot money in China. Then it analyzes the ways of hot money flowing into China, and points out that hot money flows into China through three ways: current account, capital account and illegal channels. The effect of hot money flow is also analyzed from the point of view of the national macro-control policy and the microeconomic market, including the foreign securities market and the real estate market. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to improve the supervision of hot money in our country from two aspects: short-term and long-term.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F831.7

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