發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-11 05:25

【摘要】：貨幣供給量和利率是貨幣政策實(shí)施化過程中非常重要的中介目標(biāo)。貨幣政策的中介目標(biāo)作為貨幣政策操作機(jī)制的重要環(huán)節(jié)，發(fā)揮著兩層的作用。一是由于貨幣政策實(shí)施過程的動(dòng)態(tài)性和滯后性，貨幣政策當(dāng)局需要有可以迅速準(zhǔn)確反映經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀況的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)來作為觀察和判斷政策實(shí)施效果的信號；二是為了避免貨幣當(dāng)局的機(jī)會(huì)主義行為，需要為其設(shè)置一個(gè)名義錨，以便于民眾可以觀察和判斷貨幣政策制定者是否言行一致。貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)選擇的適當(dāng)與否直接關(guān)系到貨幣政策的實(shí)施效果，中介目標(biāo)選擇適當(dāng)可以幫助政策制定者有效地調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)，中介目標(biāo)選擇不當(dāng)有可能使得貨幣政策的調(diào)控失效甚至出現(xiàn)對經(jīng)濟(jì)的不利影響。當(dāng)前我國面臨著來自金融危機(jī)的巨大困難，，因此研究貨幣供給量、利率及其產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)對我國貨幣政策實(shí)踐具有重大的現(xiàn)實(shí)指導(dǎo)意義。 本文全面地介紹了貨幣政策相關(guān)的理論及其傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，回顧了我國近二十年的貨幣政策實(shí)踐，并在此基礎(chǔ)上對我國貨幣政策的實(shí)踐展開了實(shí)證分析。在實(shí)證環(huán)節(jié)，從貨幣供給量和利率兩個(gè)方面來考察我國貨幣政策實(shí)施的效果。在貨幣供給量方面，首先，描述性分析了我國近些年來貨幣供給量的變化、貨幣流動(dòng)性的變化以及我國的貨幣化程度的變化。其次，采用VAR模型實(shí)證分析了貨幣供給對實(shí)際產(chǎn)出的直接影響關(guān)系，以及貨幣供給量通過物價(jià)間接地對實(shí)際產(chǎn)出的影響。在利率方面，首先介紹了我國現(xiàn)行的利率體制，指出了我國利率管制的局限性；其次，采用VAR模型實(shí)證分析了利率與實(shí)際產(chǎn)出之間的聯(lián)動(dòng)關(guān)系，以及我國管制利率對產(chǎn)出調(diào)控的效率。實(shí)證結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，雖然近年來我國貨幣供給量的結(jié)構(gòu)和流動(dòng)性都發(fā)生了很大變化，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的貨幣化和金融化程度都在不斷加深，但貨幣供給量對我國實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的影響仍然是顯著的，它仍然可以繼續(xù)作為我國實(shí)施貨幣政策的中介目標(biāo)。通過對利率的分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，雖然利率對實(shí)際產(chǎn)出構(gòu)成影響，但影響比較弱且存在很強(qiáng)的滯后性，利率傳導(dǎo)效率不高，我國的利率需要進(jìn)一步的市場化。本文的研究為我國采用以貨幣供給量為中介目標(biāo)的積極貨幣政策來應(yīng)對金融危機(jī)提供了實(shí)證方面的依據(jù)，同時(shí)也為我國貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)體系的豐富和完善提供參考。
[Abstract]:Money supply and interest rate are very important intermediate targets in the process of monetary policy implementation. As an important link of monetary policy operation mechanism, the intermediate target of monetary policy plays a two-tier role. First, due to the dynamic and lag of the monetary policy implementation process, the monetary policy authorities need to have economic indicators that can quickly and accurately reflect the economic operation status to be used as a signal to observe and judge the effect of the policy implementation; In order to avoid the opportunistic behavior of monetary authorities, a nominal anchor should be set so that people can observe and judge whether monetary policy makers are consistent with their words and deeds. The appropriate choice of intermediate target of monetary policy is directly related to the implementation effect of monetary policy. The appropriate choice of intermediate target can help the policy makers to adjust and control the economy effectively. The improper choice of intermediate target may make the adjustment and control of monetary policy ineffective or even have adverse effects on the economy. At present, China is facing great difficulties from the financial crisis. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the monetary supply, interest rate and its output effect for the practice of monetary policy in China. This paper comprehensively introduces the theory and transmission mechanism of monetary policy, reviews the practice of monetary policy in China in the past two decades, and makes an empirical analysis on the practice of monetary policy in China. In the empirical link, the effect of monetary policy implementation in China is investigated from the aspects of money supply and interest rate. In the aspect of money supply, firstly, the paper analyzes the change of money supply, the change of money liquidity and the change of monetization degree of our country in recent years. Secondly, VAR model is used to analyze the direct influence of money supply on actual output, and the influence of money supply on actual output indirectly through price. In the aspect of interest rate, firstly, it introduces the current interest rate system of our country, and points out the limitation of interest rate control in our country. Secondly, VAR model is used to analyze the relationship between interest rate and real output, and the efficiency of regulating interest rate on output in China. The empirical results show that although the structure and liquidity of China's money supply have changed greatly in recent years, the degree of monetization and financialization of our economy is deepening. However, the effect of money supply on China's actual economic variables is still significant, and it can still be regarded as the intermediate target of monetary policy in China. Through the analysis of the interest rate, it is found that although the interest rate has an impact on the actual output, the influence is weak and there is a strong lag, the efficiency of interest rate conduction is not high, and the interest rate in our country needs further marketization. The research in this paper provides an empirical basis for China to adopt the active monetary policy with monetary supply as the intermediate target to deal with the financial crisis, and also provides a reference for the enrichment and improvement of the intermediary target system of monetary policy in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：杭州電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F822;F124

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本文編號：2371959