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美國量化寬松貨幣政策有效性研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-11-22 07:36
【摘要】:隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的加深,美國政府已推出了四輪量化寬松貨幣政策來調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)。所謂的量化寬松貨幣政策是一種非傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策。在次貸危機(jī)后,美國選擇了這種政策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行調(diào)控。 首先,本文對(duì)整篇文章的框架結(jié)構(gòu)、選題意義等進(jìn)行簡要介紹。然后介紹了該政策的理論基礎(chǔ),該政策的理論基礎(chǔ)可以追溯到凱恩斯建立的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)體系,而第一次提出量化寬松貨幣政策這個(gè)概念的是克魯格曼。之后本文著重介紹了量化寬松貨幣政策的政策工具,并對(duì)其傳導(dǎo)途徑進(jìn)行了簡要分析,還將其與傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策進(jìn)行比較,找出兩者之間的區(qū)別。在第三章,本文對(duì)美國量化寬松貨幣政策運(yùn)行情況進(jìn)行了描述,,在四輪的量化寬松貨幣政策中,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)共為市場注入過萬億的資金。在政策實(shí)施之后,美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況有所改善。然后,本文通過美國現(xiàn)在的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用計(jì)量模型對(duì)該政策的效果進(jìn)行分析。分析結(jié)果表明,量化寬松貨幣政策在短期內(nèi)對(duì)于增加流動(dòng)性,防止通貨緊縮,促進(jìn)就業(yè),刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇有一定作用,而長期效果更為明顯。從總體上來說,量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的調(diào)控是有一定效果的,長期效果更為明顯。但此政策的實(shí)施受到各種因素的制約,因此政策本身仍有改進(jìn)的地方。此外,本文認(rèn)為,通過匯率和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格渠道的傳導(dǎo),量化寬松貨幣政策有效性較為明顯。而且對(duì)于降低長期利率,該政策也有一定效果。但政策在信貸渠道則無法有效傳導(dǎo)。因此,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)該優(yōu)化其政策工具和實(shí)施政策的環(huán)境,提高政策的有效性。本文還認(rèn)為美國量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)造成一些影響,因此提出防范美國政策對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊的建議。而且美國在金融領(lǐng)域的研究處于先進(jìn)水平,其在危機(jī)中所采用的政策時(shí)值得關(guān)注的。雖然對(duì)這種政策的討論有不同的意見,但量化寬松貨幣政策也必定有其可取之處,因此美國應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)我國貨幣政策實(shí)踐有一定的啟示。
[Abstract]:As the economic crisis deepens, the U.S. government has introduced four rounds of quantitative easing to regulate the economy. The so-called quantitative easing monetary policy is a non-traditional monetary policy. After the subprime crisis, the United States chose this policy to regulate the economy. First of all, this paper briefly introduces the frame structure of the whole article and the significance of the topic. Then it introduces the theoretical basis of the policy, which can be traced back to the macroeconomic system established by Keynes. Krugman put forward the concept of quantitative easing monetary policy for the first time. After that, this paper mainly introduces the policy tools of quantitative easing monetary policy, analyzes its transmission path, compares it with traditional monetary policy, and finds out the difference between them. In the third chapter, this paper describes the operation of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, in the four rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy, the Federal Reserve injected more than trillion dollars of money into the market. After the implementation of the policy, the economic situation in the United States improved somewhat. Then, through the current economic data of the United States, we use the econometric model to analyze the effect of the policy. The results show that the quantitative easing monetary policy plays a certain role in increasing liquidity, preventing deflation, promoting employment and stimulating economic recovery in the short term, but the long-term effect is more obvious. On the whole, the quantitative easing monetary policy has certain effect on American economy, and the long-term effect is more obvious. However, the implementation of this policy is restricted by various factors, so there are still some improvements in the policy itself. In addition, the paper believes that the effectiveness of quantitative easing monetary policy is obvious through the transmission of exchange rate and asset price channels. And for reducing long-term interest rates, the policy also has some effect. However, the policy in the credit channel can not be effectively transmitted. Therefore, the Fed should optimize its policy tools and the environment in which it operates, and improve policy effectiveness. This paper also thinks that the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States will have some impact on China's economy, so it puts forward some suggestions on how to prevent the impact of American policy on China's economy. And America's research in the field of finance is advanced, and the policies adopted in the crisis are worthy of attention. Although there are different opinions on the discussion of this kind of policy, the monetary policy of quantitative easing must also have its merits. Therefore, the experience of the United States in dealing with the crisis has some enlightenment to the practice of monetary policy in our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:廣東外語外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F827.12

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