【摘要】：中國在2006年超越日本成為全球最大的外匯儲備國。在現(xiàn)有的外匯儲備中,美元及其資產(chǎn)是中國最主要的投資對象。但是,伴隨著次貸危機的爆發(fā)和逐級發(fā)酵,包括美國在內(nèi)的西方發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體先后進入了經(jīng)濟冬眠期。為了緩解就業(yè)壓力、刺激經(jīng)濟增長,美國推出了量化寬松(QE)的貨幣政策。實施這一政策的直接后果便是美元在過去三年中的價格走低。特別是當人民幣加速升值后,美元貶值給中國外匯儲備的資產(chǎn)價值造成的損失愈發(fā)顯著。而恰恰是在此背景下,中國卻在過去幾年內(nèi)持續(xù)增持美國國債,并逐漸成為美國的第一大債權(quán)國。這無疑給我們帶來了很大的困擾——美元預期貶值的情況下為何還要增持美國國債?這種行為會不會給中國經(jīng)濟帶來較大的負面作用呢?這些問題都逐漸成為了學術(shù)界當前關(guān)注與討論的話題。文章首先系統(tǒng)性地梳理了外匯儲備管理的理論體系以及儲備資產(chǎn)投資的相關(guān)理論,并發(fā)現(xiàn)已有的理論體系呈現(xiàn)出逐級深入、逐步細化的研究路徑。在此基礎(chǔ)上,通過對中國外匯儲備規(guī)模以及所持美國國債情況的分析與歸納,并結(jié)合現(xiàn)有的研究方法,提出了基于政府債券發(fā)行與流通的效應分析思路。即,投資美國國債會給中國帶來“主權(quán)財富轉(zhuǎn)移效應”和“通貨膨脹效應”。進而,借助政府債券鑄幣稅模型和代表性個人消費效用最大化分析框架對上述兩種效應的存在以及可能的經(jīng)濟路徑進行了較為詳盡的討論與實證研究。結(jié)果表明,由于政府債券鑄幣稅的存在,中國在過去6年間共向美國政府輸送了超過600億美元的主權(quán)財富。同時,投資美國國債的行為在理論上還會對中國形成通貨膨脹水平上漲的壓力。只是由于中國央行集中持有外匯儲備,才使得這種潛在的通貨膨脹壓力最終被轉(zhuǎn)嫁到外匯占款對通貨膨脹的影響上。最后,文章基于中國投資美國國債的經(jīng)濟效應以及外匯儲備對中國經(jīng)濟的影響,建議中國應該合理控制外匯儲備的規(guī)模、降低投資美國國債的比例,并適度加快人民幣國際化進程,促進主權(quán)財富的增加。同時,文章還從管理的層次、考核的指標等方面構(gòu)建了中國外匯儲備的投資管理體系。
[Abstract]:China overtook Japan as the world's largest foreign exchange reserve in 2006. The dollar and its assets are China's main investors in existing foreign exchange reserves. However, with the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis and the gradual fermentation, developed western economies, including the United States, have entered the period of economic hibernation. To ease job pressure and stimulate economic growth, the United States launched quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy. The immediate consequence of this policy is the decline in the dollar over the past three years. Especially as the yuan accelerates, the loss to the value of China's foreign exchange reserves from a weaker dollar is even more pronounced. It is against this backdrop that China has continued to increase its holdings of U.S. Treasuries over the past few years and has gradually become the largest creditor of the United States. This is doubtless a big worry for us-why should we increase our holdings of Treasuries when the dollar is expected to depreciate? Will such behavior have a greater negative impact on China's economy? These problems have gradually become a topic of concern and discussion in academic circles. Firstly, the paper systematically combs the theory system of foreign exchange reserve management and the related theory of reserve asset investment, and finds that the existing theoretical system has a deep and detailed research path step by step. On this basis, through the analysis and induction of the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves and the situation of the U. S. Treasury bonds held, and combined with the existing research methods, this paper puts forward the thinking of effect analysis based on the issuance and circulation of government bonds. That is, investing in US Treasury bonds will give China "sovereign wealth transfer effect" and "inflation effect." Furthermore, by means of the seigniorage model of government bonds and the analysis framework of representative individual consumption utility maximization, the existence and possible economic path of these two effects are discussed and empirically studied in detail. The results show that China has channelled more than $60 billion of sovereign wealth to the U.S. government over the past six years as a result of the seigniorage on government bonds. At the same time, investing in U.S. Treasuries could theoretically put pressure on China to inflate. It is only because the people's Bank of China holds foreign exchange reserves that this potential inflationary pressure is eventually transferred to the inflation impact of foreign currency holdings. Finally, based on the economic effects of China's investment in US Treasury bonds and the impact of foreign exchange reserves on China's economy, the paper suggests that China should reasonably control the size of foreign exchange reserves and reduce the proportion of investments in US Treasury bonds. And moderate acceleration of RMB internationalization process, promote the increase of sovereign wealth. At the same time, the paper constructs the investment management system of China's foreign exchange reserve from the management level and the evaluation index.
【學位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6

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