我國貨幣流通速度變化的實(shí)證研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-30 07:30
【摘要】：貨幣政策制定者在通過改變貨幣供給量對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行調(diào)控時,應(yīng)當(dāng)充分考慮我國貨幣流通速度的情況,貨幣供給量和貨幣流通速度共同起作用才能確保貨幣政策的操作達(dá)到理想的效果。一方面貨幣流通速度由眾多的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素決定,它會受到宏觀環(huán)境和宏觀政策變化的影響而發(fā)生變化；另一方面,貨幣流通速度的變動也會影響到貨幣政策調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)的效果。然而長期以來很多學(xué)者卻對我國貨幣流通速度的變化存在著一定的誤讀：有的研究者把國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值除以貨幣供給量的值作為貨幣流通速度,得出了我國貨幣流通速度在不斷下降的結(jié)論；也有不少研究者雖然認(rèn)為把國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值除以貨幣供給量的值作為貨幣流通速度的方法不妥,但也只是考慮了虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融交易等因素,并沒有提出更好的解決方法。 由于社會分工和國際分工的深化,我國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值事實(shí)上遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于我國的商品和勞務(wù)交易總量,因此把國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值除以貨幣供給量的值作為貨幣流通速度的方法是錯誤的；貨幣流通速度是關(guān)于實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的,雖然虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和金融交易規(guī)模在不斷擴(kuò)大,但對貨幣流通速度的影響有限。本文摒棄了把國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值除以貨幣供給量的值作為貨幣流通速度的錯誤做法,同時也借鑒了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的研究成果,使用一種全新的方法來計(jì)算我國的貨幣流通速度。本文用1990—2012年期間我國的年度稅收數(shù)據(jù)來估計(jì)我國的年度商品和勞務(wù)交易總量,然后再除以貨幣供給量,最終得出了比較真實(shí)的貨幣流通速度。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),我國的貨幣流通速度并沒有像多數(shù)研究者認(rèn)為的那樣是不斷下降的,相反還保持著一種比較平穩(wěn)并且穩(wěn)中有升的走勢。 本文通過建立回歸模型和VAR模型來對貨幣流通速度和幾個主要經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,研究結(jié)果表明經(jīng)濟(jì)理論并不能完全解釋我國貨幣流通速度的變化,貨幣流通速度還會受到產(chǎn)出水平和貨幣供給量的沖擊。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣流通速度隨著貨幣供給量的增加而上升,最終會推高物價；它也會隨著貨幣供給量的減少而下降,起到加速物價下跌的作用。貨幣政策制定者在制定貨幣政策時應(yīng)當(dāng)充分考慮貨幣供給量對貨幣流通速度的沖擊,使貨幣供給量在滿足經(jīng)濟(jì)增長需要和保持物價基本穩(wěn)定之間選取一個合適的度。本文認(rèn)為貨幣政策制定者如果能夠及時發(fā)布貨幣政策信息,使社會公眾及時了解政策動向,就能夠使政策目標(biāo)的偏離程度降至最低。 在結(jié)構(gòu)安排上,本文的正文部分共分為五章。第一章為緒論部分,介紹本文的研究背景和研究意義以及對有關(guān)國內(nèi)外研究成果的文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行整理,根據(jù)研究內(nèi)容對文章結(jié)構(gòu)做出合理安排。第二章為理論闡述部分,介紹所選擇的貨幣數(shù)量理論和貨幣流通速度理論,并對影響貨幣流通速度的各種因素進(jìn)行分析。第三章為我國貨幣流通速度的測度研究部分。該章介紹了對我國貨幣流通速度度量的傳統(tǒng)方法,指出傳統(tǒng)方法的不足,并按照本文的思路和研究方法對我國貨幣流通速度進(jìn)行測度。第四章為實(shí)證部分。該章使用回歸模型和VAR模型對影響我國貨幣流通速度變化的因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。第五章為結(jié)論和政策建議。該章為全文的總結(jié),根據(jù)本文的研究結(jié)果對貨幣政策決定者提出合理的建議,并指出創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和不足。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy makers should take full account of our country's currency circulation rate, money supply amount and currency circulation speed to ensure the operation of monetary policy to achieve the ideal effect when the monetary policy makers regulate our macro-economy by changing the supply amount of money. On the one hand, the rate of currency circulation is determined by many social and economic factors, which will be influenced by macro-environment and macro-policy changes; on the other hand, the change of currency circulation rate will also affect the effect of monetary policy regulating economy. However, many scholars have had some misreading about the change of the speed of money circulation in our country: some researchers divided the gross domestic product by the value of money supply as the speed of currency circulation, and concluded that the speed of money circulation in China is decreasing continuously; Although there are many researchers who believe that the value of GDP divided by the amount of money can be used as the speed of currency circulation, it is only taking into account the factors such as virtual economy, financial transaction and so on, and has not put forward a better solution. Due to the deepening of social division of labor and international division of labor, China's gross domestic product is in fact much smaller than the total amount of goods and labor transactions in China. Therefore, the method of dividing GDP by the value of money supply as the speed of currency circulation is wrong The speed of currency circulation is about the real economy. Although the development of virtual economy and the scale of financial transaction are expanding continuously, the influence on the speed of money circulation In this paper, we use a brand-new method to calculate the currency circulation of our country using a brand-new method. Speed. This paper estimates our country's annual commodity and labor trade volume by the annual tax data of our country during the period from 1990 to 2012, then divides by the supply of money, and finally obtains the real currency circulation. The results of the study show that the rate of currency circulation in China is not decreasing as much as the majority of researchers think, but rather a relatively stable and steady state This paper studies the relationship between currency circulation speed and several major economic variables by establishing regression model and VAR model. The research results show that the economic theory cannot fully explain the currency circulation in China The rate of currency circulation will also be subject to output level and currency for changes in speed The result of the study found that the rate of currency circulation increased with the increase in the supply of money, which eventually pushed high prices; it would also decline as the supply of money decreased to speed up prices In formulating monetary policy, monetary policy makers should take fully into account the impact of the supply of money on the speed of currency circulation, so that the supply of money should be selected as a result of meeting the needs of economic growth and maintaining the basic stability of prices. The paper thinks that if monetary policy maker can issue monetary policy information in time, make the public know the trend of policy in time, it can make the deviation of policy objective Degree drops to the lowest level. In structural arrangements, this article is The first chapter is the introduction part, the research background and the research significance of this paper, and the literature on the research results at home and abroad, according to the research content to the article. The second chapter is the theoretical elaboration, the choice of monetary quantity theory and the currency circulation velocity theory, and the influence on the speed of currency circulation. The third chapter is the currency circulation rate of our country. This chapter introduces the traditional method of measuring the speed of currency circulation in our country, points out the shortage of traditional methods, and puts forward our country's currency in accordance with the thought and research methods in this paper. the flow velocity is measured. The fourth chapter is an empirical part. This chapter uses regression model and VAR model to influence the speed change of currency circulation in China An empirical analysis of the factors. For the conclusion and policy recommendations, this chapter is a summary of the full text. Based on the results of this paper, the author puts forward reasonable suggestions to the monetary policy determinator, and
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F822.2
本文編號：2299350
[Abstract]:Monetary policy makers should take full account of our country's currency circulation rate, money supply amount and currency circulation speed to ensure the operation of monetary policy to achieve the ideal effect when the monetary policy makers regulate our macro-economy by changing the supply amount of money. On the one hand, the rate of currency circulation is determined by many social and economic factors, which will be influenced by macro-environment and macro-policy changes; on the other hand, the change of currency circulation rate will also affect the effect of monetary policy regulating economy. However, many scholars have had some misreading about the change of the speed of money circulation in our country: some researchers divided the gross domestic product by the value of money supply as the speed of currency circulation, and concluded that the speed of money circulation in China is decreasing continuously; Although there are many researchers who believe that the value of GDP divided by the amount of money can be used as the speed of currency circulation, it is only taking into account the factors such as virtual economy, financial transaction and so on, and has not put forward a better solution. Due to the deepening of social division of labor and international division of labor, China's gross domestic product is in fact much smaller than the total amount of goods and labor transactions in China. Therefore, the method of dividing GDP by the value of money supply as the speed of currency circulation is wrong The speed of currency circulation is about the real economy. Although the development of virtual economy and the scale of financial transaction are expanding continuously, the influence on the speed of money circulation In this paper, we use a brand-new method to calculate the currency circulation of our country using a brand-new method. Speed. This paper estimates our country's annual commodity and labor trade volume by the annual tax data of our country during the period from 1990 to 2012, then divides by the supply of money, and finally obtains the real currency circulation. The results of the study show that the rate of currency circulation in China is not decreasing as much as the majority of researchers think, but rather a relatively stable and steady state This paper studies the relationship between currency circulation speed and several major economic variables by establishing regression model and VAR model. The research results show that the economic theory cannot fully explain the currency circulation in China The rate of currency circulation will also be subject to output level and currency for changes in speed The result of the study found that the rate of currency circulation increased with the increase in the supply of money, which eventually pushed high prices; it would also decline as the supply of money decreased to speed up prices In formulating monetary policy, monetary policy makers should take fully into account the impact of the supply of money on the speed of currency circulation, so that the supply of money should be selected as a result of meeting the needs of economic growth and maintaining the basic stability of prices. The paper thinks that if monetary policy maker can issue monetary policy information in time, make the public know the trend of policy in time, it can make the deviation of policy objective Degree drops to the lowest level. In structural arrangements, this article is The first chapter is the introduction part, the research background and the research significance of this paper, and the literature on the research results at home and abroad, according to the research content to the article. The second chapter is the theoretical elaboration, the choice of monetary quantity theory and the currency circulation velocity theory, and the influence on the speed of currency circulation. The third chapter is the currency circulation rate of our country. This chapter introduces the traditional method of measuring the speed of currency circulation in our country, points out the shortage of traditional methods, and puts forward our country's currency in accordance with the thought and research methods in this paper. the flow velocity is measured. The fourth chapter is an empirical part. This chapter uses regression model and VAR model to influence the speed change of currency circulation in China An empirical analysis of the factors. For the conclusion and policy recommendations, this chapter is a summary of the full text. Based on the results of this paper, the author puts forward reasonable suggestions to the monetary policy determinator, and
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F822.2
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