【摘要】：匯率作為一國貨幣相對于另一國貨幣的價格,是一種重要的資產(chǎn)價格。它的變化對于國際貿(mào)易往來、資本流動以及宏觀經(jīng)濟都有著重要的影響。對我國而言,由于我國經(jīng)濟對出口貿(mào)易的依存度較高,匯率的作用顯得尤為重要。 改革開放以來,人民幣匯率制度大致經(jīng)歷了幾次較大規(guī)模的改革,相應(yīng)引起我國匯率形成機制及匯率水平發(fā)生較大變化,較好地調(diào)節(jié)了我國對外貿(mào)易狀況,促進了我國經(jīng)濟增長。 但目前,由于人民幣匯率過分關(guān)注美元,在對美元出現(xiàn)較小波動的同時,對其他貨幣卻大幅波動,其直接結(jié)果是導(dǎo)致了人民幣實際有效匯率大幅波動,這在2008年下半年金融危機及2011年下半年歐洲債務(wù)危機時期顯得尤為顯著——人民幣有效匯率隨著美元升值而大幅上漲,使得我國出口貿(mào)易受到嚴(yán)重影響,人民幣匯率制度仍需進一步完善。 針對我國匯率制度進一步改革的方向,國內(nèi)外諸多學(xué)者針對做出了許多有益的研究,以匯率形成機制的選擇方面爭論尤為激烈,其中當(dāng)前的“參考一籃子貨幣,實際主要參考美元”及“盯住一籃子貨幣”兩種匯率形成機制也成為爭論的焦點。 本文擬通過定性與定量分析結(jié)合的形式,首先回顧了國內(nèi)外專家學(xué)者針對匯率變動對對外貿(mào)易影響及匯率制度選擇方面的研究成果。其次,對我國匯率制度改革歷程進行了梳理,并針對歷次匯率制度改革后匯率變動對貿(mào)易收支的影響進行了深度分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上對我國匯率制度改革作出了客觀的評價,并指出當(dāng)前人民幣匯率制度應(yīng)當(dāng)繼續(xù)加以完善。在定量研究部分,本文運用了OLS回歸方法,對我國1994年以來的進出口需求方程進行了分析,并基于回歸方程及復(fù)旦人民幣盯住一籃子貨幣的模擬匯率指數(shù),對我國進出口貿(mào)易進行盯住一籃子貨幣匯率形成機制下的模擬分析,定量地探討兩種不同匯率形成機制對進出口貿(mào)易的影響,為人們客觀評價匯率制度改革對我國貿(mào)易收支的影響以及探尋未來改革方向提供有益的借鑒。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate, as the price of one country's currency relative to another, is an important asset price. Its changes have an important impact on international trade, capital flows and macroeconomics. For our country, the role of exchange rate is particularly important because of the high degree of dependence of our economy on export trade. Since the reform and opening up, the RMB exchange rate system has undergone several large-scale reforms, which has caused great changes in China's exchange rate formation mechanism and exchange rate level, and has better regulated China's foreign trade situation. Has promoted our country's economic growth. At present, however, because the RMB exchange rate is excessively concerned with the US dollar, while it fluctuates slightly against the US dollar, it fluctuates substantially against other currencies. The direct result is that the real effective exchange rate of the RMB fluctuates substantially. This was particularly evident during the financial crisis in the second half of 2008 and the debt crisis in Europe in the second half of 2011, when the effective exchange rate of the RMB rose sharply with the appreciation of the US dollar, which seriously affected China's export trade. The RMB exchange rate system still needs to be further improved. In view of the direction of further reform of China's exchange rate regime, many scholars at home and abroad have made a lot of useful research, especially in the choice of exchange rate formation mechanism, in which the current "reference basket of currencies", The actual reference to the dollar and the "peg to a basket of currencies" exchange rate formation mechanism has also become the focus of debate. Through the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper first reviews the research achievements of experts and scholars at home and abroad on the impact of exchange rate changes on foreign trade and the choice of exchange rate regime. Secondly, the course of China's exchange rate system reform is combed, and the influence of exchange rate changes on trade income and expenditure after previous exchange rate system reform is analyzed in depth. On this basis, the objective evaluation of China's exchange rate system reform is made. And points out that the current RMB exchange rate system should continue to be improved. In the part of quantitative research, this paper uses OLS regression method to analyze the import and export demand equation of our country since 1994, and based on the regression equation and the simulated exchange rate index of Fudan RMB pegging to a basket of currencies, In this paper, the influence of two different exchange rate formation mechanisms on import and export trade is discussed quantitatively by simulating and analyzing the exchange rate formation mechanism of China's import and export trade, which is pegged to a basket of currencies. It provides a useful reference for people to evaluate objectively the influence of exchange rate system reform on China's trade income and expenditure and to explore the direction of future reform.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F752

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