【摘要】：本文采用亞洲主要國(guó)家股市與美國(guó)股市的日交易數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)影響亞洲主要國(guó)家股市的動(dòng)態(tài)傳染機(jī)制進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。結(jié)果表明:美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)期間亞洲各國(guó)股市與美國(guó)股市的相關(guān)系數(shù)均顯著高于次貸危機(jī)前與次貸危機(jī)后,股市成為美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)重要的傳染機(jī)制;各國(guó)股市與美國(guó)股市動(dòng)態(tài)相關(guān)系數(shù)存在結(jié)構(gòu)性斷點(diǎn),但是沒(méi)有足夠證據(jù)表明相關(guān)系數(shù)存在趨勢(shì)性漂移,即動(dòng)態(tài)相關(guān)系數(shù)存在均值回歸現(xiàn)象(mean-reversion);各國(guó)股市與美國(guó)股市均為正相關(guān),但是在相關(guān)程度上存在顯著性差異;各國(guó)股市與美國(guó)股市動(dòng)態(tài)相關(guān)系數(shù)均存在著顯著的時(shí)變性,這為資產(chǎn)管理公司實(shí)行積極管理策略提供了依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily trading data of major Asian and American stock markets, this paper makes an empirical study on the dynamic contagion mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis affecting the stock markets of major Asian countries. The results show that the correlation coefficient of Asian stock market and American stock market during the subprime mortgage crisis is significantly higher than that before and after the subprime mortgage crisis, and the stock market has become an important contagion mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States. There are structural breakpoints in the dynamic correlation coefficient between the stock market and the United States stock market, but there is not enough evidence that the correlation coefficient exists trend drift, that is, the dynamic correlation coefficient exists the mean regression phenomenon (mean-reversion), and the stock market is positively correlated with the American stock market. However, there are significant differences in the correlation degree, and the dynamic correlation coefficients of stock market and American stock market are significantly time-varying, which provides a basis for asset management companies to implement active management strategy.
【作者單位】： 遼寧工程技術(shù)大學(xué);
【基金】：遼寧省教育廳2012科學(xué)研究一般項(xiàng)目(W2012047)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F831.5

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本文編號(hào)：2263095