【摘要】：在全球化已經(jīng)具有不可逆轉(zhuǎn)之勢(shì)的今天,我國(guó)GDP總量、進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額、外匯儲(chǔ)備等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)總量指標(biāo)在全世界范圍內(nèi)名列前茅,這表明中國(guó)已經(jīng)具備了大國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)特征。而正是在這樣的情況下,中國(guó)貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性’卻屢遭歐美發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的質(zhì)疑。在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)發(fā)展的過程中,也出現(xiàn)了匯率制度變動(dòng)與貨幣政策獨(dú)立性的幾次沖突。我國(guó)匯率制度的選擇是否確實(shí)會(huì)影響貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性,如果會(huì)產(chǎn)生影響,那么它是以怎樣一種方式來(lái)影響我國(guó)貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性的?在當(dāng)今越來(lái)越開放的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下,資本管制必然趨向逐步放松。在資本流動(dòng)性加強(qiáng)的情況下,怎樣協(xié)調(diào)人民幣匯率制度與貨幣政策?中國(guó)的貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性如何體現(xiàn)?相應(yīng)的體制機(jī)制如何加強(qiáng)頂層設(shè)計(jì)?本文正是基于對(duì)上述問題的思考提出論題并展開寫作的。 本文首先闡述了匯率制度選擇與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系及影響匯率制度選擇的因素,進(jìn)而指出當(dāng)前匯率制度存在的主要問題,并從匯率制度分析的角度觀察其與我國(guó)貨幣政策獨(dú)立性的聯(lián)系。緊接著文章從理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)的角度分布論述了匯率制度與貨幣政策二者之間存在的沖突。文章第四部分根據(jù)上述問題進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,分別從國(guó)內(nèi)利率對(duì)國(guó)外利率敏感性、貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)國(guó)外利率敏感性、外匯儲(chǔ)備、沖銷操作和貨幣政策獨(dú)立性等方面來(lái)檢驗(yàn)我國(guó)官方利率和市場(chǎng)利率對(duì)國(guó)外利率變動(dòng)的敏感程度,從而檢驗(yàn)我國(guó)貨幣的獨(dú)立性。研究表明,在資本部分管制的情況下,我國(guó)的貨幣政策能夠保持中等的獨(dú)立性,沖銷操作發(fā)揮了重要作用。匯率制度彈性的增加能夠顯著地提高我國(guó)貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性,“不可能三角”理論適用于我國(guó)。 論文基于理論推導(dǎo)和實(shí)證分析,提出了深化匯率制度改革和適時(shí)增大貨幣政策獨(dú)立性的建議。一方面,在完善匯率形成機(jī)制,深化匯率制度形成機(jī)制方面,首先在短期內(nèi)增強(qiáng)匯率彈性,長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)浮動(dòng)匯率制。其次,為緩解和預(yù)防國(guó)際短期資本對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的沖擊,我國(guó)的外匯市場(chǎng)需要進(jìn)一步發(fā)展和完善。通過增加外匯市場(chǎng)的交易主體,健全外匯交易方式,建立外匯儲(chǔ)備基金,變“藏匯于國(guó)”為“藏匯于民”等方式來(lái)提高我國(guó)外匯市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能。最后,我國(guó)加快我國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程,實(shí)現(xiàn)匯率與利率之間靈活的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。實(shí)施利率市場(chǎng)化,以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)來(lái)調(diào)節(jié)利率此外,由于我國(guó)龐大的外匯儲(chǔ)備量直接影響了我國(guó)貨幣政策和匯率政策的配合,必須完善我國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備體系。另一方面,要通過以下幾個(gè)方面增強(qiáng)我國(guó)貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性。第一,在央行信譽(yù)加強(qiáng)的前提下,適當(dāng)調(diào)整貨幣政策的中間目標(biāo),可以考慮通貨膨脹作為貨幣政策的中間目標(biāo)。第二,短期內(nèi)在貨幣市場(chǎng)實(shí)施對(duì)沖操作,以暫時(shí)緩解維持穩(wěn)定匯率對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣獨(dú)立性造成的負(fù)面影響。第三,堅(jiān)持在條件允許的情況下,堅(jiān)持資本賬戶漸進(jìn)式開放。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, with the irreversible trend of globalization, China's total GDP, import and export trade, foreign exchange reserves and other macroeconomic aggregate indicators rank first in the world, which shows that China has the economic characteristics of a large country. In the course of China's sustained economic development, there have also been several conflicts between the change of exchange rate system and the independence of monetary policy. In today's increasingly open market environment, capital control is bound to gradually relax. How to coordinate the RMB exchange rate regime and monetary policy with the strengthening of capital liquidity? How can the independence of China's monetary policy be reflected? How can the corresponding institutional mechanisms strengthen the top-level design? This paper is based on the above considerations. Put forward the topic and start writing.
This paper first expounds the relationship between the choice of exchange rate regime and economic development and the factors influencing the choice of exchange rate regime, then points out the main problems existing in the current exchange rate regime, and observes the relationship between the choice of exchange rate regime and the independence of China's monetary policy from the perspective of exchange rate analysis. Then the paper discusses the distribution of exchange rate from the theoretical and practical point of view. The fourth part of this paper makes an empirical analysis of the conflicts between the two. It examines China's official interest rates and market interest rates from the perspectives of sensitivity of domestic interest rates to foreign interest rates, sensitivity of money supply to foreign interest rates, foreign exchange reserves, sterilization and independence of monetary policy. The study shows that under the condition of partial capital control, China's monetary policy can maintain a moderate degree of independence, and sterilization plays an important role. The theory is applicable to China.
Based on theoretical deduction and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions on deepening the reform of exchange rate regime and increasing the independence of monetary policy in time. China's foreign exchange market needs further development and improvement because of the impact of capital on China's economy. After that, China speeds up the process of interest rate marketization and realizes the flexible transmission mechanism between exchange rate and interest rate, implements interest rate marketization and adjusts interest rate on the basis of market supply and demand. On the one hand, the independence of China's monetary policy should be strengthened through the following aspects. First, inflation can be considered as the intermediate target of monetary policy if the central bank's credibility is strengthened and the intermediate target of monetary policy is properly adjusted. Second, the short-term hedging operation of the monetary market can temporarily ease the maintenance of stable exchange rate. Third, we should adhere to the gradual opening of capital account when conditions permit.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F822.0

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本文編號(hào)：2212143