超主權信用貨幣發(fā)展影響因素研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-20 08:29
【摘要】：本論文研究的對象是影響超主權信用貨幣發(fā)展的因素。2008年金融危機以來，針對國際貨幣體系改革的呼聲不斷增多，，尤其是針對國際本位貨幣的改革，其中不少人倡議發(fā)展超主權信用貨幣。但也有許多反對的聲音，焦點集中在超主權信用貨幣是否可行上。人們多從發(fā)展超主權信用貨幣的優(yōu)勢、劣勢和具體可行性上進行探討，而從影響因素角度的分析研究較少，并且缺少系統(tǒng)性。因此本論文嘗試從影響因素的角度進行研究，為進一步研究超主權信用貨幣積累經驗。論文共分為六部分，其中第二、三、四、五節(jié)是主體部分。 第一節(jié)為引言，主要介紹四個方面的內容。第一，介紹選題的背景、目的和意義。第二，介紹論文的研究方法和基本內容框架。第三，定義本文中超主權信用貨幣的含義。第四，列舉本文的主要觀點和創(chuàng)新。 第二節(jié)介紹超主權信用貨幣的相關理論。首先是凱恩斯理論。凱恩斯第一個系統(tǒng)地提出超主權信用貨幣的相關理論，并設計了一套具體的操作方案，對后期相關理論的發(fā)展影響極大。但其參照國內中央銀行組織模式建立的國際清算同盟存在缺陷，需要進一步改進。特里芬根據世界經濟的變化對凱恩斯的方案進行改進，并提出從IMF改革入手更具可行性的觀點。不過在政治、大國博弈等方面的研究仍然存在不足。蒙代爾提出了最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論，經過后人的拓展研究形成了一套新的理論體系，影響很大，但在非經濟因素方面的研究仍然不足。平行貨幣理論在如何推行超主權信用貨幣方面做出了巨大的貢獻，并在歐元的創(chuàng)立過程中得到了有效的實踐。 第三節(jié)在第二節(jié)的基礎上，從理論上歸納出三大類共十一個主要影響因素。即貨幣方面的因素，經濟方面的因素，以及政治、社會文化、國際協(xié)調等方面的因素。其中貨幣因素包括貨幣的價值基礎、貨幣的幣值穩(wěn)定和貨幣的職能健全；經濟因素包括市場層面的資本、商品和勞動力的流動性以及政府層面的貨幣政策協(xié)調和財政風險控制。 第四節(jié)利用當前存在的兩種超主權信用貨幣，歐元和SDR，的發(fā)展來驗證第三節(jié)提出的十一個影響因素，探討它們的重要性。共分為三部分：第一部分從貨幣，經濟，政治、社會文化、國際協(xié)調等角度對歐元成功誕生的原因進行探討，第二部分從貨幣，經濟，政治、社會文化、國際協(xié)調等角度對SDR發(fā)展的困境進行原因分析，第三部分從經濟，政治、社會文化、國際協(xié)調等角度對歐元發(fā)展面臨困境的原因進行分析。 第五節(jié)對歐元、SDR以及未來“亞元”的發(fā)展進行展望。提出歐元發(fā)展對成員國利大于弊，未來必須從加強勞動力流動，增強社會文化的融合，加強政治的協(xié)商，改革國際機構以及加強財政風險控制等方面進行改革。而SDR按目前的模式難以有發(fā)展空間，必須先從貨幣設計方面入手。“亞元”發(fā)展遙遙無期，可以先從經濟一體化入手。 第六節(jié)主要對前面的內容進行總結，并對主要的觀點和結論進行梳理。
[Abstract]:Since the financial crisis in 2008, there have been increasing calls for the reform of the international monetary system, especially for the reform of the international standard currency. Many of them have proposed the development of the super-sovereign credit currency. People mostly discuss the advantages, disadvantages and specific feasibility of developing super-sovereign credit currency, but the analysis from the angle of influencing factors is less and lack of systematicness. Therefore, this paper tries to study from the angle of influencing factors to accumulate experience for further research on super-sovereign credit currency. It is divided into six parts, of which second, third, four and five are the main parts.
The first section is the introduction, which mainly introduces four aspects. First, it introduces the background, purpose and significance of the topic. Second, it introduces the research methods and basic content framework of the paper. Third, it defines the meaning of super-sovereign credit currency. Fourth, it lists the main points and innovations of this paper.
The second section introduces the related theories of super-sovereign credit currency. First, Keynesian theory. Keynesian first put forward the related theories of super-sovereign credit currency systematically, and designed a set of concrete operation scheme, which has great influence on the development of the related theories in the later period. Triffin improved Keynes's plan according to the changes of the world economy, and put forward the view that it is more feasible to start with the IMF reform. However, there are still some deficiencies in the study of politics and the game between big powers. A new theoretical system has a great influence, but the research on non-economic factors is still insufficient. Parallel currency theory has made a great contribution to the implementation of super-sovereign credit currency, and has been effectively practiced in the creation of the euro.
Section 3, on the basis of Section 2, theoretically summarizes three major categories and eleven main influencing factors, namely, monetary factors, economic factors, political, social and cultural factors, international coordination and other factors. Factors include market-level capital, commodity and labor mobility, and government-level monetary policy coordination and fiscal risk control.
Section IV uses the development of two super-sovereign credit currencies, the Euro and SDR, to verify the eleven factors proposed in Section III and to explore their importance. It is divided into three parts: the first part discusses the reasons for the successful birth of the Euro from the perspectives of currency, economy, politics, social culture, international coordination, etc. The third part analyzes the reasons for the dilemma of the development of SDR from the perspectives of currency, economy, politics, social culture and international coordination.
The fifth section looks forward to the development of the euro, SDR and the future "Asian dollar". It points out that the development of the euro has more advantages than disadvantages for the member countries. In the future, reforms must be carried out in such aspects as strengthening labor mobility, enhancing social and cultural integration, strengthening political consultation, reforming international institutions and strengthening financial risk control. If there is room for development, we must start with the monetary design.
The sixth section summarizes the above contents and sorts out the main points and conclusions.
【學位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F820.4
本文編號：2193019
[Abstract]:Since the financial crisis in 2008, there have been increasing calls for the reform of the international monetary system, especially for the reform of the international standard currency. Many of them have proposed the development of the super-sovereign credit currency. People mostly discuss the advantages, disadvantages and specific feasibility of developing super-sovereign credit currency, but the analysis from the angle of influencing factors is less and lack of systematicness. Therefore, this paper tries to study from the angle of influencing factors to accumulate experience for further research on super-sovereign credit currency. It is divided into six parts, of which second, third, four and five are the main parts.
The first section is the introduction, which mainly introduces four aspects. First, it introduces the background, purpose and significance of the topic. Second, it introduces the research methods and basic content framework of the paper. Third, it defines the meaning of super-sovereign credit currency. Fourth, it lists the main points and innovations of this paper.
The second section introduces the related theories of super-sovereign credit currency. First, Keynesian theory. Keynesian first put forward the related theories of super-sovereign credit currency systematically, and designed a set of concrete operation scheme, which has great influence on the development of the related theories in the later period. Triffin improved Keynes's plan according to the changes of the world economy, and put forward the view that it is more feasible to start with the IMF reform. However, there are still some deficiencies in the study of politics and the game between big powers. A new theoretical system has a great influence, but the research on non-economic factors is still insufficient. Parallel currency theory has made a great contribution to the implementation of super-sovereign credit currency, and has been effectively practiced in the creation of the euro.
Section 3, on the basis of Section 2, theoretically summarizes three major categories and eleven main influencing factors, namely, monetary factors, economic factors, political, social and cultural factors, international coordination and other factors. Factors include market-level capital, commodity and labor mobility, and government-level monetary policy coordination and fiscal risk control.
Section IV uses the development of two super-sovereign credit currencies, the Euro and SDR, to verify the eleven factors proposed in Section III and to explore their importance. It is divided into three parts: the first part discusses the reasons for the successful birth of the Euro from the perspectives of currency, economy, politics, social culture, international coordination, etc. The third part analyzes the reasons for the dilemma of the development of SDR from the perspectives of currency, economy, politics, social culture and international coordination.
The fifth section looks forward to the development of the euro, SDR and the future "Asian dollar". It points out that the development of the euro has more advantages than disadvantages for the member countries. In the future, reforms must be carried out in such aspects as strengthening labor mobility, enhancing social and cultural integration, strengthening political consultation, reforming international institutions and strengthening financial risk control. If there is room for development, we must start with the monetary design.
The sixth section summarizes the above contents and sorts out the main points and conclusions.
【學位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F820.4
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