基于效用最大化模型的中國(guó)最優(yōu)外匯儲(chǔ)備研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-09 20:11
【摘要】：中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備的發(fā)展就好像中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一面鏡子，經(jīng)歷了改革開(kāi)放初期的嚴(yán)重短缺，繼而高速增長(zhǎng)，到近幾年外匯儲(chǔ)備相對(duì)充裕的幾個(gè)階段。短短三十年時(shí)間，中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備的增長(zhǎng)速度是世界其他國(guó)家所無(wú)法比擬的。增幅之大，增長(zhǎng)之快，也是世界罕見(jiàn)的。中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備如此持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)，其中的原因有許多，包括中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)，對(duì)外開(kāi)放程度逐年加大，匯率體制改革，以出口為導(dǎo)向的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)政策，強(qiáng)制結(jié)售匯制度以及對(duì)人民幣升值的預(yù)期等等�？傊�，高速的外匯儲(chǔ)備增長(zhǎng)引起了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界的關(guān)注。對(duì)其研究也越來(lái)越多。 這隨之而來(lái)的問(wèn)題就是，中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備是否適度，是相對(duì)過(guò)剩還是有待提高。外匯儲(chǔ)備為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的好處是有目共睹的，不僅使中國(guó)從容應(yīng)對(duì)亞洲金融危機(jī)，還提高了中國(guó)的對(duì)外支付能力，增加了海外投資者的信心，并為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展提供了有力的保障和支撐。但是外匯儲(chǔ)備并非越多越好，收益率低下，貨幣政策倒逼，通脹壓力加大等都是持有過(guò)多外匯儲(chǔ)備所需付出的代價(jià)。尤其是這幾年美元持續(xù)走低，使得中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備大幅縮水，給經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了不小的損失，所以認(rèn)為中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備相對(duì)過(guò)剩的觀點(diǎn)越來(lái)越多。本文正是基于這樣的背景下，，來(lái)探討中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模問(wèn)題。 從國(guó)內(nèi)外以往的理論研究來(lái)看，對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備最優(yōu)規(guī)模的研究是按這樣的順序發(fā)展的。最初是比例分析法，其中幾個(gè)代表性的指標(biāo)有儲(chǔ)備與進(jìn)口比例（R/M）、儲(chǔ)備與短期外債比例（R/SD）和儲(chǔ)備與貨幣供應(yīng)量比例等。隨著資本項(xiàng)目流動(dòng)的加大，出現(xiàn)了外匯儲(chǔ)備的需求函數(shù)分析法，它把計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的分析方法運(yùn)用到外匯儲(chǔ)備最優(yōu)規(guī)模問(wèn)題，通過(guò)構(gòu)建需求函數(shù)更加全面地分析了外匯儲(chǔ)備的需求。成本收益模型把外匯儲(chǔ)備當(dāng)作一種資產(chǎn)來(lái)分析，為了求出其最適度規(guī)模，必須使其邊際收益等于邊際成本。這種方法為分析外匯儲(chǔ)備問(wèn)題開(kāi)辟了一條新道路。國(guó)內(nèi)研究最優(yōu)外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模問(wèn)題大多采用上述三種方法，按照中國(guó)的實(shí)際情況對(duì)模型進(jìn)行擴(kuò)展，再套用中國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)，得出相應(yīng)結(jié)論。 目前國(guó)際上研究外匯儲(chǔ)備最優(yōu)規(guī)模的前沿理論是基于效用最大化模型，這在國(guó)內(nèi)文獻(xiàn)中比較少見(jiàn)。本文針對(duì)這方面的空缺，在效用最大化模型的基礎(chǔ)上研究中國(guó)最優(yōu)外匯儲(chǔ)備問(wèn)題。文章第四章將詳細(xì)介紹JR模型，然后搜集中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，進(jìn)行數(shù)值模擬分析和敏感性分析，這些將在文章第五章中體現(xiàn)。最后根據(jù)模型得出的結(jié)論從控制外匯儲(chǔ)備增長(zhǎng)和外匯儲(chǔ)備的運(yùn)營(yíng)管理兩方面提出若干政策建議。
[Abstract]:The development of China's foreign exchange reserves is like a mirror of China's economic development. It has experienced a serious shortage in the early stage of reform and opening up, then increased at a high speed, and has been relatively abundant in recent years. In just three decades, China's foreign exchange reserves have grown faster than other countries in the world. The rate of increase and the speed of growth are also rare in the world. There are many reasons for the sustained and rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves, including the rapid growth of China's macroeconomic economy, the increase in the degree of opening up year by year, the reform of the exchange rate system, and the export-oriented economic growth policy. Compulsory settlement and sale of foreign exchange system and the expectation of RMB appreciation and so on. In short, the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves has attracted the attention of the academic community at home and abroad. More and more research has been done on it. The question that follows is whether China's foreign exchange reserves are moderate, relative excess or need to be raised. The benefits that foreign exchange reserves bring to China's economy are obvious to all. They not only enable China to cope with the Asian financial crisis, but also enhance China's ability to pay abroad and increase the confidence of overseas investors. And for the rapid development of China's economy to provide a strong guarantee and support. But the more reserves the better, the lower yields, the tighter monetary policy and inflationary pressures are the costs of holding excess reserves. In particular, as the dollar has continued to weaken in recent years, causing China's foreign exchange reserves to shrink sharply, causing a lot of losses to the economy, there is a growing number of views that China's foreign exchange reserves are relatively excess. This article is based on this background, to explore the size of China's foreign exchange reserves. From the previous theoretical studies at home and abroad, the research on the optimal size of foreign exchange reserves is developed in this order. At the beginning, the proportional analysis method was used, among which the ratio of reserve to import (R / M), the ratio of reserve to short-term external debt (R/SD) and the ratio of reserve to money supply were several typical indicators. With the increase of capital account flow, the demand function analysis method of foreign exchange reserve appears, which applies econometric analysis method to the optimal scale of foreign exchange reserve. The demand of foreign exchange reserve is analyzed more comprehensively by constructing demand function. The cost-benefit model analyzes the foreign exchange reserve as an asset. In order to find out its optimal scale, the marginal income must be equal to the marginal cost. This method opens up a new way to analyze the problem of foreign exchange reserves. Most of the domestic researches on the optimal foreign exchange reserve scale are based on the above three methods. According to the actual situation in China, the model is expanded, and then applied to the Chinese data, and the corresponding conclusions are drawn. At present, the frontier theory of the optimal size of foreign exchange reserves is based on the utility maximization model, which is rare in domestic literature. In this paper, the optimal foreign exchange reserves of China are studied on the basis of utility maximization model. The fourth chapter will introduce JR model in detail, then collect the relevant data of China's foreign exchange reserve, carry on the numerical simulation analysis and sensitivity analysis, these will be reflected in the fifth chapter of the article. Finally, according to the conclusions of the model, some policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of controlling the growth of foreign exchange reserves and the operation and management of foreign exchange reserves.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F224
[Abstract]:The development of China's foreign exchange reserves is like a mirror of China's economic development. It has experienced a serious shortage in the early stage of reform and opening up, then increased at a high speed, and has been relatively abundant in recent years. In just three decades, China's foreign exchange reserves have grown faster than other countries in the world. The rate of increase and the speed of growth are also rare in the world. There are many reasons for the sustained and rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves, including the rapid growth of China's macroeconomic economy, the increase in the degree of opening up year by year, the reform of the exchange rate system, and the export-oriented economic growth policy. Compulsory settlement and sale of foreign exchange system and the expectation of RMB appreciation and so on. In short, the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves has attracted the attention of the academic community at home and abroad. More and more research has been done on it. The question that follows is whether China's foreign exchange reserves are moderate, relative excess or need to be raised. The benefits that foreign exchange reserves bring to China's economy are obvious to all. They not only enable China to cope with the Asian financial crisis, but also enhance China's ability to pay abroad and increase the confidence of overseas investors. And for the rapid development of China's economy to provide a strong guarantee and support. But the more reserves the better, the lower yields, the tighter monetary policy and inflationary pressures are the costs of holding excess reserves. In particular, as the dollar has continued to weaken in recent years, causing China's foreign exchange reserves to shrink sharply, causing a lot of losses to the economy, there is a growing number of views that China's foreign exchange reserves are relatively excess. This article is based on this background, to explore the size of China's foreign exchange reserves. From the previous theoretical studies at home and abroad, the research on the optimal size of foreign exchange reserves is developed in this order. At the beginning, the proportional analysis method was used, among which the ratio of reserve to import (R / M), the ratio of reserve to short-term external debt (R/SD) and the ratio of reserve to money supply were several typical indicators. With the increase of capital account flow, the demand function analysis method of foreign exchange reserve appears, which applies econometric analysis method to the optimal scale of foreign exchange reserve. The demand of foreign exchange reserve is analyzed more comprehensively by constructing demand function. The cost-benefit model analyzes the foreign exchange reserve as an asset. In order to find out its optimal scale, the marginal income must be equal to the marginal cost. This method opens up a new way to analyze the problem of foreign exchange reserves. Most of the domestic researches on the optimal foreign exchange reserve scale are based on the above three methods. According to the actual situation in China, the model is expanded, and then applied to the Chinese data, and the corresponding conclusions are drawn. At present, the frontier theory of the optimal size of foreign exchange reserves is based on the utility maximization model, which is rare in domestic literature. In this paper, the optimal foreign exchange reserves of China are studied on the basis of utility maximization model. The fourth chapter will introduce JR model in detail, then collect the relevant data of China's foreign exchange reserve, carry on the numerical simulation analysis and sensitivity analysis, these will be reflected in the fifth chapter of the article. Finally, according to the conclusions of the model, some policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of controlling the growth of foreign exchange reserves and the operation and management of foreign exchange reserves.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F224
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 鐘偉;論中國(guó)國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備的適度規(guī)模[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;1995年07期
2 姜波克;牛曉健;;局部戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)視角下中國(guó)國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備管理研究[J];復(fù)旦學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2006年04期
3 馬之
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