人民幣匯率對長三角貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)影響的研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-05 20:36
【摘要】：改革開放后,中國經(jīng)濟不斷融入到世界經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展中,與國際間的聯(lián)系越來越緊密。中國的對外貿(mào)易的快速發(fā)展,提升了我國在國際上的貿(mào)易地位,中國已經(jīng)成為了全球貿(mào)易大國。長三角作為我國對外貿(mào)易的第一大經(jīng)濟區(qū),是亞太經(jīng)濟的重要門戶和全球重要的貿(mào)易制造產(chǎn)地。長三角貿(mào)易的初期,憑借其優(yōu)越的地理位置、雄厚的資金支持和低廉的勞動力成本,對外貿(mào)易迅速發(fā)展,且其產(chǎn)品在國際市場上極具競爭力,使長三角的進出口總額常年雄踞全國貿(mào)易之首。但是近幾年來,隨著勞動力成本上升、環(huán)境污染等問題的出現(xiàn),長三角的對外貿(mào)易受到了諸多的挑戰(zhàn)。長三角地區(qū)落后的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)也在很大程度上阻礙了貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。長期處于產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈底端的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu),技術(shù)含量過低的貿(mào)易產(chǎn)品,過度集中的貿(mào)易區(qū)域結(jié)構(gòu)不僅在逐漸減少長三角的貿(mào)易利潤,也潛藏著諸多的經(jīng)濟風險。所以推動長三角貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級,促進貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)合理發(fā)展是長三角未來對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展的重中之重。 近年來,隨著人民幣匯率制度不斷完善,人民幣經(jīng)歷了一系列的升值過程,人民幣匯率制度的選擇和轉(zhuǎn)變貿(mào)易增長方式成為了經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的熱點。人民幣匯率的變動一方面對國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟帶來了波動,另一方面也對長三角的對外貿(mào)易和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生重大的影響。本文立足長三角經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易發(fā)展的實際情況和現(xiàn)實挑戰(zhàn),研究人民幣匯率及其他控制變量的變化對長三角貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)變化之間的影響。首先介紹了貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的相關概念和相關匯率對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)影響的文獻綜述,為全文奠定了基礎。然后,本文將理論和實際數(shù)據(jù)相結(jié)合直觀地整理分析了長三角20多年以來的對外貿(mào)易和各種貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展、現(xiàn)狀和存在的問題,以及匯率對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)影響的傳導機制。在實際分析的基礎上,本文選擇人民幣實際有效匯率指數(shù)作為解釋變量,控制變量包括GDP、FDI、固定資產(chǎn)投資和收入水平,分別就其對長三角的貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易方式結(jié)構(gòu)以及貿(mào)易區(qū)域結(jié)構(gòu)的影響進行了實證檢驗,探討人民幣匯率以及其他變量對長三角貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,最后的研究表明,匯率與長三角的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)存在著長期的協(xié)整關系,伴隨著人民幣的升值,長三角的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)均得到了改善,具體表現(xiàn)為：隨著人民幣升值,長三角的低端貿(mào)易產(chǎn)品出口受到遏制,處于產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈低端的加工貿(mào)易出口減少,過于集中的貿(mào)易區(qū)域結(jié)構(gòu)也得到了緩解。最后本文在實證分析的基礎上對長三角的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級提出了相關的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been integrated into the development of the world economy and has become more and more closely connected with the international community. With the rapid development of China's foreign trade, China has become a major trading country in the world. The Yangtze River Delta, as the largest economic zone in China's foreign trade, is an important gateway to Asia-Pacific economy and an important trade and manufacturing area in the world. In the early days of the Yangtze River Delta trade, with its superior geographical position, abundant financial support and low labor cost, foreign trade developed rapidly, and its products were very competitive in the international market. So that the Yangtze River Delta imports and exports of the total number of year-round ranking of the first national trade. However, in recent years, with the rising of labor cost and environmental pollution, the foreign trade of Yangtze River Delta has been challenged. The backward industrial structure and trade structure of Yangtze River Delta also hinder the development of trade to a great extent. The trade structure at the bottom of the industrial chain for a long time, the trade products with too low technology content and the over-concentrated trade regional structure are not only gradually reducing the trade profits of the Yangtze River Delta, but also lurking a lot of economic risks. Therefore, promoting the optimization and upgrading of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta and promoting the rational development of the trade structure are the most important aspects of the future development of foreign trade in the Yangtze River Delta. In recent years, with the continuous improvement of RMB exchange rate system, RMB has experienced a series of appreciation process. The choice of RMB exchange rate system and the transformation of trade growth mode have become the hot spot of economic development. On the one hand, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate brings fluctuation to the domestic and foreign economy, on the other hand, it has a great influence on the development of foreign trade and trade structure in the Yangtze River Delta. Based on the actual situation and practical challenges of the development of economic and trade in the Yangtze River Delta, this paper studies the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate and other control variables on the change of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. Firstly, this paper introduces the related concepts of trade structure and the literature review on the influence of exchange rate on trade structure, which lays a foundation for the full text. Then, this paper analyzes the development of foreign trade and various trade structures in the Yangtze River Delta in the past 20 years, the present situation and the existing problems, as well as the transmission mechanism of the exchange rate's influence on the trade structure. On the basis of the actual analysis, this paper chooses the real effective exchange rate index of RMB as the explanatory variable. The control variables include GDP FDI, fixed asset investment and income level. The impact of RMB exchange rate and other variables on the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta is tested by empirical analysis of its impact on the trade commodity structure, trade mode structure and trade regional structure of the Yangtze River Delta. Finally, the research shows that the RMB exchange rate and other variables affect the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. With the appreciation of RMB, the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta has been improved. The export of low-end trade products in the Yangtze River Delta is restrained, the export of processing trade at the low end of the industrial chain is reduced, and the regional structure of over-concentrated trade is alleviated. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations on the optimization and upgrading of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.8
本文編號：2166948
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been integrated into the development of the world economy and has become more and more closely connected with the international community. With the rapid development of China's foreign trade, China has become a major trading country in the world. The Yangtze River Delta, as the largest economic zone in China's foreign trade, is an important gateway to Asia-Pacific economy and an important trade and manufacturing area in the world. In the early days of the Yangtze River Delta trade, with its superior geographical position, abundant financial support and low labor cost, foreign trade developed rapidly, and its products were very competitive in the international market. So that the Yangtze River Delta imports and exports of the total number of year-round ranking of the first national trade. However, in recent years, with the rising of labor cost and environmental pollution, the foreign trade of Yangtze River Delta has been challenged. The backward industrial structure and trade structure of Yangtze River Delta also hinder the development of trade to a great extent. The trade structure at the bottom of the industrial chain for a long time, the trade products with too low technology content and the over-concentrated trade regional structure are not only gradually reducing the trade profits of the Yangtze River Delta, but also lurking a lot of economic risks. Therefore, promoting the optimization and upgrading of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta and promoting the rational development of the trade structure are the most important aspects of the future development of foreign trade in the Yangtze River Delta. In recent years, with the continuous improvement of RMB exchange rate system, RMB has experienced a series of appreciation process. The choice of RMB exchange rate system and the transformation of trade growth mode have become the hot spot of economic development. On the one hand, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate brings fluctuation to the domestic and foreign economy, on the other hand, it has a great influence on the development of foreign trade and trade structure in the Yangtze River Delta. Based on the actual situation and practical challenges of the development of economic and trade in the Yangtze River Delta, this paper studies the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate and other control variables on the change of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. Firstly, this paper introduces the related concepts of trade structure and the literature review on the influence of exchange rate on trade structure, which lays a foundation for the full text. Then, this paper analyzes the development of foreign trade and various trade structures in the Yangtze River Delta in the past 20 years, the present situation and the existing problems, as well as the transmission mechanism of the exchange rate's influence on the trade structure. On the basis of the actual analysis, this paper chooses the real effective exchange rate index of RMB as the explanatory variable. The control variables include GDP FDI, fixed asset investment and income level. The impact of RMB exchange rate and other variables on the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta is tested by empirical analysis of its impact on the trade commodity structure, trade mode structure and trade regional structure of the Yangtze River Delta. Finally, the research shows that the RMB exchange rate and other variables affect the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta. With the appreciation of RMB, the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta has been improved. The export of low-end trade products in the Yangtze River Delta is restrained, the export of processing trade at the low end of the industrial chain is reduced, and the regional structure of over-concentrated trade is alleviated. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations on the optimization and upgrading of the trade structure of the Yangtze River Delta.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.8
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