信貸配給與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-05 17:36
【摘要】： 改革開放30多年來,中國銀行業(yè)信貸總量和經(jīng)濟總量GDP都實現(xiàn)了快速增長,兩者的變化趨勢基本一致,究竟是某種巧合,還是另有其因?如果二者之間存在一定的因果關系,究竟孰是因、孰是果?需要我們做進一步的研究分析。人們對信貸配給與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展持何種關系的認識,將直接深刻影響到國家財政政策、貨幣政策和信貸政策的制定和執(zhí)行,影響到中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟和實體經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,影響到中國宏觀經(jīng)濟發(fā)展目標的實現(xiàn)。因此,在這樣大背景下進行此課題的研究,無疑對四大區(qū)域經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)非均衡發(fā)展和信貸配給效率的提升以及尋找縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差距的金融良策具有重大的現(xiàn)實意義,可以說,其研究不但具有非常重要的現(xiàn)實理論意義和較大的深遠影響,而且有較高的實用價值和較強的政策指導性,特別在宏觀方面有助于理解中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的差異性和區(qū)域差異化的貨幣信貸政策制定的有效性,有助于如何在當前全球金融危機下充分發(fā)揮信貸配給作用,助推中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟非均衡協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 信貸配給至今沒有一個統(tǒng)一公認的定義,信貸配給測度指標也沒有,文獻往往都是說比較難而一帶而過。本文在總結和吸取前人研究的基礎上,重新界定了信貸配給的定義和信貸配給測度指標,認為信貸配給是對信貸資金需求方的約束,是信貸市場供需的一種失衡,它既是一個絕對的概念,又是一個相對和動態(tài)的概念。它表現(xiàn)為供不應求(即信貸不足)和供過于求(即信貸過度)兩種情況。從大量文獻來看,信貸配給與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展關系問題的研究主要散落于金融(中介)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展關系的文獻之中,由于研究的目的、范圍、方法等不同,得出的結論也迥然不同,一般來說,信貸配給與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展主要有單向因果關系、雙向因果關系和沒有因果關系三種。盡管有大量文獻涉及到此問題的研究,但專題研究文獻至今沒有,仍是一項空白,因此進行該專題研究很具有一定挑戰(zhàn)性,相信其研究成果對今后該領域的深入研究能夠起到一種拋磚引玉的作用。 建國以來,中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略經(jīng)歷了均衡發(fā)展一非均衡發(fā)展和非均衡協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展三個階段。改革開放后,中國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)高速增長被世界堪稱“中國之謎”,但其背后是四大區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的結構性斷裂,中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展主要依靠東部拉動,但東部經(jīng)濟的快速增長并沒有同比例地帶動中西部和東北地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟增長。中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差異較大,測度區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差異的不同指標呈現(xiàn)出“S”型、“L”型、倒“U”型和“W”型等不同形狀和特征的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差異趨勢。其形成原因,不同學者從不同角度給出了不同的答案,但本文從資本因素的角度分析,認為信貸資金、外商投資、全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資等資金投入在四大區(qū)域間分布的極端不平衡是形成區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差異的一些原因。 從中國信貸配給的演進與制度變遷來看,中國信貸配給始終是一種非均衡現(xiàn)象,整體上經(jīng)歷了完全計劃性的信貸配給、計劃性向市場化轉(zhuǎn)變的信貸配給和基本市場化的信貸配給三個階段,在前兩個階段是一種“超貸”的非均衡信貸市場,第三個階段是以“惜貸”為特征的非均衡信貸配給,它與西方商業(yè)銀行市場化為特征的信貸配給是有差異的。在四大區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差異和信貸配給體制改革的雙重作用下,中國四大區(qū)域信貸配給實際上是“計劃”與“市場”的“雙重信貸配給”機制,即麥金農(nóng)和肖式M-S模型的“政府主導型”信貸配給和斯蒂格利茨等S-W模型“市場主體型”信貸配給,這就進一步加劇了信貸配給的區(qū)域差異性,造成信貸資金高速流向低風險、高收益的經(jīng)濟發(fā)達的區(qū)域,延緩流向高風險、低收益的經(jīng)濟相對落后區(qū)域,或資金“回流”經(jīng)濟發(fā)達區(qū)域,使信貸配給區(qū)域差異高度非均衡,存在區(qū)域結構性的嚴重“超貸”與“惜貸”并存的“空間分布”不均衡怪現(xiàn)象。因此,正確認識來自“政府主導機制”與“市場機制”兩個方面的信貸配給的“雙重性”和信貸配給的“區(qū)域差異性”以及與四大區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展非均衡差異性的耦合,是有效消除信貸配給區(qū)域差異性和促進區(qū)域經(jīng)濟非均衡協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的根本前提和重要保證。 通過采用固定效應模型,控制各個區(qū)域存在的固定效應,對中國省級層面和區(qū)域?qū)用?978-2007年不同區(qū)域情況下信貸配給與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的相互作用和因果關系進行了實證分析,結論表明,信貸配給與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間存在因果關系,但區(qū)域差異性較大,在東部和中部區(qū)域兩者之間表現(xiàn)為信貸配給對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展有相對較小的單向促進作用的因果關系；在西部區(qū)域兩者之間卻存在一些內(nèi)生性雙向因果關系。一方面信貸配給對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展有影響,呈現(xiàn)由經(jīng)濟發(fā)達的地區(qū)向經(jīng)濟落后的地區(qū)梯度增強的趨勢。另一方面經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對信貸配給的區(qū)域性差異影響較大,在經(jīng)濟發(fā)達的東部和經(jīng)濟相對發(fā)達的中部,區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對信貸配給影響較小,在經(jīng)濟相對落后的西部區(qū)域,區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對信貸配給的影響卻較大。同時,信貸配給具有明顯的區(qū)域強弱性特征,表現(xiàn)為在經(jīng)濟發(fā)達的東部區(qū)域和經(jīng)濟相對發(fā)達的中部區(qū)域信貸配給較弱,而在經(jīng)濟比較落后的西部區(qū)域信貸配給較強,支持和論證了Patrick關于信貸配給“供給引導”和“需求跟隨”的理論觀點。股市融資對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展起著越來越重要的作用,對銀行信貸有顯著的替代作用。 市場協(xié)調(diào)是基礎,政府協(xié)調(diào)是補充。建議政府通過“看不見的手”的“市場協(xié)調(diào)機制”和“看得見的手”的“政府協(xié)調(diào)機制”來統(tǒng)籌協(xié)調(diào)信貸配給與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,通過一定的行政干預和必要的宏觀調(diào)控的雙重手段彌補市場失靈,共同推動信貸配給與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟非均衡協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,實現(xiàn)中國經(jīng)濟“四輪驅(qū)動”共同快速發(fā)展的目標。
[Abstract]:After 30 years of reform and opening up, the total amount of credit and the total amount of GDP of China's banking industry have achieved rapid growth. The change trend of the two is basically the same. Is it a coincidence or another cause? If there is a certain causal relationship between the two, which is the cause, which is the result, we need to do further research and analysis. The understanding of the relationship between the regional economic development and the regional economic development will directly affect the national financial policy, the formulation and implementation of monetary policy and credit policy, the development of China's regional economy and the real economy, and the realization of the goal of China's macro economic development. Therefore, the research on this subject under such a background is doubtless. It is of great practical significance to the non balanced development of economic coordination in the four major regions and the promotion of the efficiency of credit rationing and the search for a good financial policy to narrow the gap between the regional economic development. It can be said that the study not only has very important practical theoretical significance and a greater far-reaching influence, but also has high practical value and strong policy. It is helpful to understand the difference of regional economic development in China and the effectiveness of regional differentiation of monetary and credit policy, which helps to give full play to the credit rationing role in the current global financial crisis and promote the development of regional economic disequilibrium in China.
There is not a unified and recognized definition of credit rationing, and the credit rationing measure has not been used. The documents often say that the credit rationing is difficult and through. On the basis of summarizing and absorbing the previous research, this paper redefines the definition of credit rationing and the measure index of credit rationing, and believes that credit rationing is a constraint on the demand side of credit funds. It is an unbalance between supply and demand in the credit market. It is both an absolute concept and a relative and dynamic concept. It shows two situations in which the supply of credit is insufficient (i.e., credit shortage) and oversupply (i.e., excessive credit). From a large number of literature, the research on the relationship between credit rationing and regional economic development is mainly scattered in Finance (intermediary). In the literature of the relationship between development and economic development, the conclusions are very different because of the purpose, scope and method of the study. Generally speaking, there are one way causality, two-way causality and no causality between credit rationing and economic development. Although a large number of documents are involved in the study of this problem, a special study is made. The literature is still a blank, so it is very challenging to carry out this study. It is believed that the research results can play a role in the future research in this field.
Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, China's regional economic development strategy has experienced three stages of balanced development and unbalanced development. After the reform and opening up, the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy has been called "the mystery of China" by the world, but behind it is the structural fracture of the four regional economic development, and the development of China's economy mainly depends on the eastern pull. But the rapid growth of the eastern economy does not increase the economic growth of the central and western regions in the same proportion. The regional economic development varies greatly in China. The different indicators of regional economic development differences show the difference trend of regional economic development in different shapes and characteristics, such as "S", "L", "U" and "W". Different scholars have given different answers from different angles, but from the perspective of capital factors, this paper thinks that the extreme imbalances of the distribution of funds, such as credit funds, foreign investment and all social fixed assets investment in the four major regions, are some reasons for the difference in regional economic development.
From the perspective of the evolution and institutional change of China's credit rationing, China's credit rationing has always been a non equilibrium phenomenon, and it has experienced totally planned credit rationing, planned and market-based credit rationing and basic marketization of credit rationing in three stages. In the first two stages, it is a "ultra loan" unbalanced credit market. The third stage is a disequilibrium credit rationing characterized by the "reluctance to lend". It is different from the credit rationing characterized by the marketization of western commercial banks. Under the dual role of the four regional economic development differences and the reform of the credit rationing system, the four large regional credit rationing in China is actually "plan" and "market". The dual credit rationing mechanism, namely the "government led" credit rationing of Mackinnon and the Shaw M-S model and the S-W model of "market master" credit rationing of the S-W model, further aggravates the regional difference of credit rationing, resulting in the rapid flow of credit funds to low risk, high income economically developed areas, and postponing the flow of flow. The relatively backward areas with high risk and low income, or the "return" of the developed areas, make the regional differences in credit rationing highly unbalanced, and there is an unbalanced phenomenon of "spatial distribution" of "super loan" and "loan reluctance" coexistence in regional structure. Therefore, the positive recognition comes from the "government leading mechanism" and "market machine". The "dual nature" of credit rationing in two aspects and the "regional difference" of credit rationing and the coupling of the disequilibrium differences with the four regional economic development are the fundamental prerequisite and important guarantee for effectively eliminating the regional differences in the credit rationing and promoting the unbalanced coordinated development of the regional economy.
The fixed effect model is adopted to control the fixed effect in various regions, and the interaction and causality between credit rationing and economic development in 1978-2007 years at the provincial level and regional level in China is analyzed. The conclusion shows that there is a causal relationship between the credit supply and the development of the regional economy, but the conclusion is that there is a causal relationship between the credit distribution and the regional economic development. The regional differences are large, and between the eastern and central regions, the relationship between the credit rationing and the economic development has a relatively small one-way cause and effect relationship. In the western region there are some endogenous two-way causality between the two. On the one hand, the credit rationing has an impact on the regional economic development and presents the economic developed land. On the other hand, the economic development has a great influence on the regional differences of credit rationing. In the economically developed east and the relatively developed middle part of the economy, the regional economic development has little influence on the credit rationing. In the west part of the relatively backward economy, the influence of regional economic development on the credit rationing At the same time, the credit rationing has obvious regional strong and weak characteristics, which shows that credit rationing is weak in the economically developed eastern region and the relatively developed economy in the central region, while the credit rationing is stronger in the western region with relatively backward economy. It supports and demonstrates that Patrick is closed to the "supply guidance" and "demand following" in the credit rationing. Stock market financing is playing an increasingly important role in regional economic development and has a significant substitution effect on bank credit.
The market coordination is the foundation and the government coordination is a supplement. It is suggested that the government coordinate the credit rationing and regional economic development through the "market coordination mechanism" and "the visible hand" "government coordination mechanism", and make up for the market failure through certain administrative intervention and necessary macro regulation and control. To promote the unbalanced and coordinated development of credit rationing and regional economy, and to achieve the goal of "four-wheel drive" common rapid development of China's economy.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：F832.4;F207
[Abstract]:After 30 years of reform and opening up, the total amount of credit and the total amount of GDP of China's banking industry have achieved rapid growth. The change trend of the two is basically the same. Is it a coincidence or another cause? If there is a certain causal relationship between the two, which is the cause, which is the result, we need to do further research and analysis. The understanding of the relationship between the regional economic development and the regional economic development will directly affect the national financial policy, the formulation and implementation of monetary policy and credit policy, the development of China's regional economy and the real economy, and the realization of the goal of China's macro economic development. Therefore, the research on this subject under such a background is doubtless. It is of great practical significance to the non balanced development of economic coordination in the four major regions and the promotion of the efficiency of credit rationing and the search for a good financial policy to narrow the gap between the regional economic development. It can be said that the study not only has very important practical theoretical significance and a greater far-reaching influence, but also has high practical value and strong policy. It is helpful to understand the difference of regional economic development in China and the effectiveness of regional differentiation of monetary and credit policy, which helps to give full play to the credit rationing role in the current global financial crisis and promote the development of regional economic disequilibrium in China.
There is not a unified and recognized definition of credit rationing, and the credit rationing measure has not been used. The documents often say that the credit rationing is difficult and through. On the basis of summarizing and absorbing the previous research, this paper redefines the definition of credit rationing and the measure index of credit rationing, and believes that credit rationing is a constraint on the demand side of credit funds. It is an unbalance between supply and demand in the credit market. It is both an absolute concept and a relative and dynamic concept. It shows two situations in which the supply of credit is insufficient (i.e., credit shortage) and oversupply (i.e., excessive credit). From a large number of literature, the research on the relationship between credit rationing and regional economic development is mainly scattered in Finance (intermediary). In the literature of the relationship between development and economic development, the conclusions are very different because of the purpose, scope and method of the study. Generally speaking, there are one way causality, two-way causality and no causality between credit rationing and economic development. Although a large number of documents are involved in the study of this problem, a special study is made. The literature is still a blank, so it is very challenging to carry out this study. It is believed that the research results can play a role in the future research in this field.
Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, China's regional economic development strategy has experienced three stages of balanced development and unbalanced development. After the reform and opening up, the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy has been called "the mystery of China" by the world, but behind it is the structural fracture of the four regional economic development, and the development of China's economy mainly depends on the eastern pull. But the rapid growth of the eastern economy does not increase the economic growth of the central and western regions in the same proportion. The regional economic development varies greatly in China. The different indicators of regional economic development differences show the difference trend of regional economic development in different shapes and characteristics, such as "S", "L", "U" and "W". Different scholars have given different answers from different angles, but from the perspective of capital factors, this paper thinks that the extreme imbalances of the distribution of funds, such as credit funds, foreign investment and all social fixed assets investment in the four major regions, are some reasons for the difference in regional economic development.
From the perspective of the evolution and institutional change of China's credit rationing, China's credit rationing has always been a non equilibrium phenomenon, and it has experienced totally planned credit rationing, planned and market-based credit rationing and basic marketization of credit rationing in three stages. In the first two stages, it is a "ultra loan" unbalanced credit market. The third stage is a disequilibrium credit rationing characterized by the "reluctance to lend". It is different from the credit rationing characterized by the marketization of western commercial banks. Under the dual role of the four regional economic development differences and the reform of the credit rationing system, the four large regional credit rationing in China is actually "plan" and "market". The dual credit rationing mechanism, namely the "government led" credit rationing of Mackinnon and the Shaw M-S model and the S-W model of "market master" credit rationing of the S-W model, further aggravates the regional difference of credit rationing, resulting in the rapid flow of credit funds to low risk, high income economically developed areas, and postponing the flow of flow. The relatively backward areas with high risk and low income, or the "return" of the developed areas, make the regional differences in credit rationing highly unbalanced, and there is an unbalanced phenomenon of "spatial distribution" of "super loan" and "loan reluctance" coexistence in regional structure. Therefore, the positive recognition comes from the "government leading mechanism" and "market machine". The "dual nature" of credit rationing in two aspects and the "regional difference" of credit rationing and the coupling of the disequilibrium differences with the four regional economic development are the fundamental prerequisite and important guarantee for effectively eliminating the regional differences in the credit rationing and promoting the unbalanced coordinated development of the regional economy.
The fixed effect model is adopted to control the fixed effect in various regions, and the interaction and causality between credit rationing and economic development in 1978-2007 years at the provincial level and regional level in China is analyzed. The conclusion shows that there is a causal relationship between the credit supply and the development of the regional economy, but the conclusion is that there is a causal relationship between the credit distribution and the regional economic development. The regional differences are large, and between the eastern and central regions, the relationship between the credit rationing and the economic development has a relatively small one-way cause and effect relationship. In the western region there are some endogenous two-way causality between the two. On the one hand, the credit rationing has an impact on the regional economic development and presents the economic developed land. On the other hand, the economic development has a great influence on the regional differences of credit rationing. In the economically developed east and the relatively developed middle part of the economy, the regional economic development has little influence on the credit rationing. In the west part of the relatively backward economy, the influence of regional economic development on the credit rationing At the same time, the credit rationing has obvious regional strong and weak characteristics, which shows that credit rationing is weak in the economically developed eastern region and the relatively developed economy in the central region, while the credit rationing is stronger in the western region with relatively backward economy. It supports and demonstrates that Patrick is closed to the "supply guidance" and "demand following" in the credit rationing. Stock market financing is playing an increasingly important role in regional economic development and has a significant substitution effect on bank credit.
The market coordination is the foundation and the government coordination is a supplement. It is suggested that the government coordinate the credit rationing and regional economic development through the "market coordination mechanism" and "the visible hand" "government coordination mechanism", and make up for the market failure through certain administrative intervention and necessary macro regulation and control. To promote the unbalanced and coordinated development of credit rationing and regional economy, and to achieve the goal of "four-wheel drive" common rapid development of China's economy.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：F832.4;F207
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