【摘要】：改革開放30多年來，隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長，居民生活水平不斷提高，居民儲蓄余額一直處于高增長態(tài)勢，居民儲蓄在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位不斷上升。但與此同時，也伴隨著很多問題，特別是結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾問題。近年來，國內(nèi)最終消費占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比重越來越少，我國最終消費量中占較大比重的是居民消費，所以最終消費量的減少主要是由于居民消費水平的降低，而隨著居民收入水平的提高，居民消費率的降低必然反映出我國居民儲蓄率的不斷提高。不可否認(rèn)，高儲蓄率為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長提供了充足的資金來源，成為支持經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長的重要因素。但是，巨額的居民儲蓄給我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的正常運(yùn)行帶來了一定壓力。高儲蓄率，低消費率導(dǎo)致我國內(nèi)需疲軟，要想促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長只有依靠投資和出口，而長期依賴投資和出口并不利于我國經(jīng)濟(jì)長期穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的最終目的是刺激消費，因此，將我國較高的居民儲蓄率合理有效的轉(zhuǎn)化為居民消費率對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型與可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 我國居民儲蓄率過高導(dǎo)致的國內(nèi)需求疲軟是阻礙我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要問題之一，如何降低居民儲蓄率顯得十分迫切。因此，結(jié)合我國現(xiàn)階段的實際情況，文章對我國居民儲蓄的影響因素進(jìn)行了理論和實證研究。文章第一部分為引言，介紹了文章選題背景和選題的目的意義、國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀、文章研究的內(nèi)容和基本方法。通過對我國現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的了解，得出內(nèi)需不足、消費疲軟一定程度上阻礙我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，而導(dǎo)致消費水平低的原因主要是由于我國居民儲蓄過高，從而得出文章的研究目的和意義。第二部分為理論基礎(chǔ)，首先對儲蓄的基本概念進(jìn)行了簡單的介紹，然后通過對儲蓄理論知識進(jìn)行梳理，了解了近二百年來儲蓄理論產(chǎn)生發(fā)展的過程，為下文的變量的選取提供了理論支持。第三部分為我國居民儲蓄存在的問題，結(jié)合我國具體現(xiàn)狀，參考實際數(shù)據(jù)，得出現(xiàn)階段我國居民儲蓄存在的主要問題，主要包括我國居民儲蓄率過高、不同收入階層之間分布不均、不同年齡段之間分布不均、我國居民的儲蓄投資比例失調(diào)。第四部分，首先對我國居民儲蓄的影響因素進(jìn)行了理論分析，主要包括利率與居民儲蓄理論分析、人口結(jié)構(gòu)與居民儲蓄關(guān)系分析、收入分配與居民儲蓄關(guān)系分析，為接下來模型中變量的選取提供了支持。其次，對影響我國居民儲蓄的其他變量進(jìn)行了簡單的分析。第五部分為實證分析部分，通過上述分析得出一套符合我國實際情況的模型框架，并對相關(guān)變量進(jìn)行了選取。利用模型結(jié)合我國1983-2011年的數(shù)據(jù)對我國居民儲蓄率的影響因素進(jìn)行實證分析。對所有變量進(jìn)行線性回歸，發(fā)現(xiàn)變量之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系。為避免出現(xiàn)偽回歸，對模型進(jìn)行修正，選取最優(yōu)模型形式，最后得出收入分配對我國居民儲蓄率具有顯著影響的結(jié)論。第六部分為對策建議，針對現(xiàn)階段我國居民儲蓄存在的問題，依據(jù)文章研究結(jié)果得出的影響我國居民儲蓄的主要因素，提出一系列合理的對策建議。
[Abstract]:Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, with the rapid growth of China's economy, the living standard of residents has been continuously improved, the savings balance of the residents has been in high growth, and the status of residents' savings in the national economy is rising. At the same time, there are many problems, especially the structural contradiction. In recent years, domestic consumption accounts for domestic life. The proportion of gross product is less and less, the largest proportion of our country's final consumption is resident consumption, so the decrease of the final consumption is mainly due to the decrease of the consumption level of the residents. With the increase of the residents' income level, the decrease of the consumption rate of the residents inevitably reflects the increase of the saving rate of the people in our country. The rate has provided an adequate source of capital for China's economic growth, which has become an important factor in supporting the rapid growth of the economy. However, a huge amount of residents' savings have brought pressure to the normal operation of the macro-economy in China. High savings rate and low consumption rate lead to weak domestic demand. Relying on investment and export is not conducive to the long-term and stable development of China's economy. The ultimate goal of economic development is to stimulate consumption. Therefore, it is of great practical meaning to the transformation and sustainable development of our country's economic transformation and sustainable development by transforming the higher resident savings rate into a reasonable and effective consumption rate in China.
The weak domestic demand caused by the high savings rate in our country is one of the most important problems that impede the economic development of our country. It is very urgent to reduce the savings rate of the residents. Therefore, in the light of the actual situation at the present stage of our country, the article has carried out a theoretical and Empirical Study on the factors affecting the savings of the residents in our country. This paper introduces the background and purpose of the topic, the present situation at home and abroad, the contents and basic methods of the article. Through the understanding of the current economic development of our country, the shortage of domestic demand is obtained, and the weakness of consumption is hindered to the development of our economy to a certain extent, and the cause of low consumption is mainly due to the savings of our residents. The second part is the theoretical basis of the article. First, the basic concept of savings is introduced, and then the savings theory is briefly introduced. Then by combing the theory of savings, the paper understands the development process of savings theory in the last two hundred years, and provides theoretical support for the selection of the variables below. The third part is the theoretical support for the selection of the following variables. The existing problems of Chinese residents' savings, combined with the specific status of our country and reference to actual data, have the main problems of the existence of Chinese residents' savings, including the high savings rate of the residents, the uneven distribution of different income strata, the uneven distribution between different ages, and the imbalance of the savings and investment in our country. The fourth part is the disproportions of the savings and investment in our country. First of all, this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the influencing factors of Chinese residents' savings, mainly including the theoretical analysis of interest rate and resident savings, the analysis of the relationship between population structure and residents' savings, the analysis of the relationship between income distribution and resident savings, which provides support for the selection of the variables in the next model. The fifth part is an empirical analysis. Through the above analysis, we get a set of model framework which conforms to the actual situation of our country, and select the related variables. Using the model combined with the data of China for 1983-2011 years, the factors that affect the savings rate of the residents in our country are analyzed. There is a cointegration relationship between the present variables. In order to avoid the pseudo regression, the model is revised and the optimal model is selected. Finally, the conclusion is drawn that the income distribution has a significant impact on the savings rate of the residents in our country. The sixth part is the countermeasures and suggestions, in view of the problems of the savings deposit of the residents in China at the present stage, the impact of the results of the article is based on the results of the article. The main factors of household savings in China put forward a series of reasonable countermeasures and suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.22

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