【摘要】：貨幣政策閥值效應(yīng)是貨幣政策效果非對稱性的外在表現(xiàn)。本文詳細闡述了貨幣政策閥值效應(yīng)、閾值效應(yīng)模型，辨析了非對稱性、非線性的區(qū)別，在此基礎(chǔ)上最終選擇閥值效應(yīng)模型作為本文的基本模型假設(shè)，，并通過1978-2011年數(shù)據(jù)實證分析發(fā)現(xiàn)中國貨幣政策效果確實存在明顯的閥值效應(yīng)，閥值為-0.06。本文認為存在于不同規(guī)模企業(yè)之間的信貸配給現(xiàn)象是貨幣政策閥值效應(yīng)產(chǎn)生的主要原因。本文利用工業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)分析信貸配給對政策效果的影響，創(chuàng)新性的提出將工業(yè)貸款占總貸款比值的變化作為衡量工業(yè)所遭遇的信貸配給程度的指標，認為該值小于0時工業(yè)企業(yè)遭遇信貸配給，大于0時信貸配給弱化。接著本文利用AB-SVAR模型的結(jié)構(gòu)化脈沖響應(yīng)計算信貸配給沖擊對不同規(guī)模企業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的影響，結(jié)果顯示緊縮性的貨幣政策中，信貸向大企業(yè)集中，導致信貸配給現(xiàn)象加劇，而大型企業(yè)信貸資源本來就很充足，增加的信貸只能帶來很少的產(chǎn)出，這部分產(chǎn)出遠小于小型企業(yè)減少的信貸導致的產(chǎn)出減少；而擴張性的貨幣政策中，擴張的信貸首先滿足大中型企業(yè)，然后才滿足小型企業(yè)，所以產(chǎn)出增加不明顯。信貸配給產(chǎn)生的根源是信息不對稱導致的中小企業(yè)融資難問題，所以最后本文圍繞如何改善這個問題提出了三個政策建議：完善制度建設(shè)，為市場發(fā)展提供保障；拓展融資渠道，為經(jīng)濟發(fā)展提供支持；有針對性引導，助銀行盈利模式改變。
[Abstract]:The threshold effect of monetary policy is the external manifestation of the asymmetry of monetary policy effect. In this paper, the threshold effect model and threshold effect model of monetary policy are described in detail, and the difference between asymmetry and nonlinearity is analyzed. On this basis, the threshold effect model is chosen as the basic hypothesis of this paper. Through empirical analysis of the data from 1978 to 2011, it is found that there is a significant threshold effect in the effect of China's monetary policy, with a threshold of -0.06. This paper holds that the phenomenon of credit rationing between enterprises of different sizes is the main reason for the threshold effect of monetary policy. This paper uses industrial data to analyze the impact of credit rationing on policy effectiveness, and innovatively proposes to take the change of the ratio of industrial loans to total loans as an indicator to measure the degree of credit rationing encountered by industry. It is considered that the industrial enterprises encounter credit rationing when the value is less than 0, and the credit rationing is weakened when the value is greater than 0. Then we use the structured impulse response of AB-SVAR model to calculate the impact of credit rationing shock on the gross output value of enterprises of different sizes. The results show that in the tight monetary policy, credit is concentrated to large enterprises, which leads to the intensification of credit rationing phenomenon. Credit resources for large enterprises are already plentiful, with increased credit producing only a small amount of output, much less than the reduction in credit by small firms; and in expansionary monetary policy, Expansion of credit to large and medium-sized companies, then to small businesses, so the increase in output is not obvious. The root of credit rationing is the difficulty of financing SMEs caused by asymmetric information. Finally, this paper puts forward three policy suggestions on how to improve this problem: perfect the system construction to provide guarantee for the market development; To expand financing channels to provide support for economic development; targeted guidance to help banks change their profit model.
【學位授予單位】：寧波大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0;F832.4

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