【摘要】：近年來我國經(jīng)濟增長速度明顯放緩,尤其在進入2015年后更是跌破了7%,創(chuàng)下了近25年來的新低。我國經(jīng)濟增速持續(xù)下滑的同時,物價水平也持續(xù)低位徘徊,2015年全年居民消費價格指數(shù)(CPI)同比增長1.4%,較2014年回落了0.6個百分點。此外,截止2016年4月工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠價格指數(shù)(PPI)已經(jīng)連續(xù)50個月保持負增長,未來轉(zhuǎn)正仍然遙遙無期。新常態(tài)下,我國CPI增速的持續(xù)回落和PPI的連續(xù)下跌讓我們不得不警惕通貨緊縮風(fēng)險的存在,如何評估當(dāng)前我國的宏觀金融形勢、厘清當(dāng)前我國通貨緊縮風(fēng)險的成因,制定系統(tǒng)的宏觀經(jīng)濟政策以防范通貨緊縮的發(fā)生,成為當(dāng)前亟需解決的重要問題。本文首先對我國通貨緊縮風(fēng)險的現(xiàn)狀進行了分析,并在此基礎(chǔ)上采用Ordered Probit模型研究了當(dāng)前我國分別處于價格穩(wěn)定、通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮三個通脹區(qū)間的概率。本文認為,我國經(jīng)濟雖然未陷入全面通貨緊縮,但是潛在通貨緊縮風(fēng)險已經(jīng)很高,需要政府高度重視。其次,本文運用VAR模型對可能引發(fā)通貨緊縮風(fēng)險的各因素進行了實證分析,得出了如下結(jié)論:有效需求不足、產(chǎn)能過剩是當(dāng)前我國通貨緊縮風(fēng)險的根本性影響因素;資產(chǎn)價格、通貨緊縮預(yù)期、貨幣是當(dāng)前我國通貨緊縮風(fēng)險的主要影響因素;外部傳導(dǎo)性因素是構(gòu)成當(dāng)前我國通貨緊縮的重要推手。最后,在厘清當(dāng)前我國通貨緊縮風(fēng)險影響因素的基礎(chǔ)上,本文有針對性的提出了一系列切實可行的政策建議,以緩解我國當(dāng)前的通貨緊縮風(fēng)險,確保我國宏觀經(jīng)濟在合理的區(qū)間內(nèi)按照“新常態(tài)”穩(wěn)健運行。
[Abstract]:China's economic growth has slowed markedly in recent years, especially since 2015, when it has fallen below 7%, the lowest in nearly 25 years. China's economic growth continued to decline, while prices remained low, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 1.4 percentage points year-on-year in 2015, down 0.6 percentage points from 2014. In addition, the industrial producer price index (PPI) has maintained negative growth for 50 consecutive months as of April 2016, and future gains remain elusive. Under the new normal, the sustained decline of CPI growth rate and the continuous decline of PPI make us have to guard against the existence of deflation risk. How to evaluate the current macro financial situation and clarify the causes of deflation risk in China. It is an important problem to make a systematic macroeconomic policy to prevent deflation. This paper first analyzes the current situation of deflation risk in China, and then uses Ordered Probit model to study the probability of price stability, inflation and deflation in three inflation regions. This paper holds that although China's economy is not in total deflation, the risk of potential deflation is very high, and the government should attach great importance to it. Secondly, this paper makes an empirical analysis of various factors that may lead to deflation risk by using VAR model, and draws the following conclusions: insufficient effective demand, excess capacity is the fundamental influencing factor of deflation risk in China at present; Deflation expectation, currency is the main influence factor of deflation risk in our country at present, and external conduction factor is the important pushing hand that constitutes deflation at present in our country. Finally, on the basis of clarifying the influencing factors of deflation risk in China, this paper puts forward a series of practical and feasible policy recommendations to alleviate the current deflation risk in China. To ensure that China's macroeconomic in a reasonable range in accordance with the "new normal" steady operation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F822.5
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本文編號：2142068