【摘要】：當(dāng)前,全球資本流動(dòng)總量小幅但不均衡回升,未來(lái)有可能緩慢增長(zhǎng);發(fā)展中國(guó)家資本市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展正在逐漸改變國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的結(jié)構(gòu);國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)參與者的角色發(fā)生很大的變化;國(guó)際資本向新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體特別是亞洲新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體大量流動(dòng)。在短期國(guó)際資本的持續(xù)沖擊下,新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體已有形成資產(chǎn)泡沫的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且在未來(lái)仍有繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大的趨勢(shì)。對(duì)于中國(guó)而言,熱錢在中國(guó)的投機(jī)空間有限,短期內(nèi)大規(guī)模持續(xù)流入的條件還不具備,溫和流入并時(shí)有反復(fù)可能將成長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)。要擺脫國(guó)際熱錢大規(guī)模流動(dòng)帶來(lái)的包括人民幣升值壓力在內(nèi)的一系列困擾,必須采取疏堵結(jié)合的方式:一方面,采取有效的防御性措施,監(jiān)控各類熱錢,加強(qiáng)流入管制;另一方面,應(yīng)重視疏導(dǎo)的作用,抑制泡沫膨脹,吸引中長(zhǎng)期國(guó)際資本,防范和限制短期資本泛濫。
[Abstract]:At present, the total amount of global capital flows is rising slightly but unevenly, which is likely to grow slowly in the future. The development of capital markets in developing countries is gradually changing the structure of international capital flows. The role of international financial market participants has changed considerably; international capital flows to emerging economies, particularly in Asia. Under the sustained impact of short-term international capital, emerging economies have formed the risk of asset bubbles, and will continue to expand in the future. For China, hot money has limited room for speculation in China, conditions for large-scale sustained inflows in the short term are not yet available, and moderate inflows and sometimes recurring trends are likely to grow. In order to get rid of a series of troubles caused by the large-scale flow of international hot money, including the pressure of RMB appreciation, we must take the following ways: on the one hand, we should take effective defensive measures to monitor all kinds of hot money and strengthen the control of inflow; On the other hand, we should pay attention to the role of diversion, restrain bubble inflation, attract medium and long term international capital, and prevent and limit short-term capital flooding.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)交流中心;
【分類號(hào)】：F831.6
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本文編號(hào)：2138323