本文選題：沖銷(xiāo)能力 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模　； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)頻繁出現(xiàn)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的現(xiàn)象,某些發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家認(rèn)為中國(guó)的出口政策是導(dǎo)致其經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的原因,不但對(duì)我國(guó)進(jìn)行指責(zé),還加大本國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的保護(hù)強(qiáng)度而迫使人民幣升值。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家很擔(dān)心我國(guó)出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力會(huì)因?yàn)槿嗣駧派刀蠓冉档?從而影響我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。但其實(shí)倘若東南亞國(guó)家貨幣能夠在人民幣升值的帶動(dòng)下實(shí)現(xiàn)集體升值,那么我國(guó)的出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力就不會(huì)因?yàn)槿嗣駧诺纳刀霈F(xiàn)大的逆轉(zhuǎn),所以人們不必過(guò)多擔(dān)心人民幣升值所帶來(lái)的負(fù)面影響,相反,人民幣升值還可以帶來(lái)很多益處,如使得國(guó)際收支失衡得以緩解,東南亞區(qū)域的整體福利水平得以提高等等�，F(xiàn)在的中國(guó)作為一個(gè)日新月異的強(qiáng)國(guó),毋庸置疑,只待時(shí)機(jī)成熟,其必然會(huì)再次崛起。然而隨著中國(guó)再次成為世界的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,人民幣必然會(huì)走上國(guó)際化的道路,不僅因?yàn)槠浯碇袊?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的軟實(shí)力,而且縱觀貨幣的衍生史,美元、英鎊都逃不過(guò)這個(gè)歷史的規(guī)律。從另一角度來(lái)看,中國(guó)同東南亞國(guó)家越來(lái)越密切的經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系,說(shuō)明美國(guó)在東南亞的主導(dǎo)地位已經(jīng)慢慢被中國(guó)所替代,這不但為人民幣在東南亞地區(qū)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易中,成為具有支付功能、計(jì)價(jià)手段等一系列功能的國(guó)際貨幣奠定了堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ),還為人民幣逐漸成為被東南亞國(guó)家盯住的貨幣創(chuàng)造了條件,從而提升了人民幣在東南亞區(qū)域的實(shí)際地位。同時(shí),人民幣在東南亞地區(qū)地位的提升,不僅使得東南亞經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的速度加快了,還使東南亞地區(qū)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)交易的規(guī)模得以擴(kuò)大了,反過(guò)來(lái),現(xiàn)實(shí)產(chǎn)生了以人民幣替代東南亞其他國(guó)家貨幣交易的需要,減少了區(qū)域內(nèi)增加的交易成本,擴(kuò)張了每個(gè)國(guó)家進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的規(guī)模和交易的效率,減少了東南亞區(qū)域國(guó)家對(duì)美元的過(guò)渡依賴和系統(tǒng)系的世界風(fēng)險(xiǎn),創(chuàng)造了更多的多邊貿(mào)易機(jī)會(huì)。 本文從沖銷(xiāo)能力的角度分析了人民幣升值是否能夠帶動(dòng)?xùn)|南亞國(guó)家貨幣集體升值。筆者認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模越大,沖銷(xiāo)能力越強(qiáng)。原因是一國(guó)貨幣需求量會(huì)隨著其經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大而增加,在貨幣供給量因?yàn)橥鈪R儲(chǔ)備增加而增長(zhǎng)時(shí),很大一部分貨幣能被增加的貨幣需求量所吸收,使得通貨膨脹壓力減小。從而沖銷(xiāo)難度小,沖銷(xiāo)能力強(qiáng)。 在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文應(yīng)用費(fèi)雪方程式來(lái)建立理論模型,選取2000到2010年間中國(guó)、馬來(lái)西亞、泰國(guó)、印尼和菲律賓5個(gè)國(guó)家的季度數(shù)據(jù)作為樣本數(shù)據(jù),建立實(shí)證模型。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模同沖銷(xiāo)能力確實(shí)呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。接著本文對(duì)5個(gè)樣本國(guó)2000到2010年間樣本國(guó)的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)果表明中國(guó)的沖銷(xiāo)能力確實(shí)強(qiáng)于其他四個(gè)國(guó)家。 根據(jù)上述結(jié)論,接著本文對(duì)東南亞小國(guó)對(duì)于人民幣升值的反應(yīng)進(jìn)行分析。筆者認(rèn)為,人民幣升值后,倘若東南亞小國(guó)的貨幣不跟隨人民幣的升值而升值,那么其國(guó)際收支順差額和外匯儲(chǔ)備額都將增加,從而將導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)出現(xiàn)通貨膨脹,而東南亞小國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模小,沖銷(xiāo)能力很弱,不能通過(guò)沖銷(xiāo)來(lái)平抑國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià),從而本幣最終也將出現(xiàn)實(shí)際的升值。所以,中國(guó)同東南亞小國(guó)間沖銷(xiāo)能力存在的巨大差異,將使東南亞貨幣最終能在人民幣升值的帶動(dòng)下實(shí)現(xiàn)集體的升值。也就是說(shuō)人民幣升值不會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)的出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力造成嚴(yán)重影響,人們不必?fù)?dān)心人民幣的升值。 最后,本文結(jié)合研究現(xiàn)狀,總結(jié)出人民幣不僅能夠阻止東南亞國(guó)家貨幣競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貶值,也能夠帶動(dòng)?xùn)|南亞國(guó)家貨幣集體升值的結(jié)論。說(shuō)明人民幣已經(jīng)成為東南亞區(qū)域事實(shí)上的“隱性錨”。接著本文提出應(yīng)進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)東南亞國(guó)家間的對(duì)話與合作,推進(jìn)匯率合作體系的形成,促使人民幣從“隱性錨”向“顯性錨”的轉(zhuǎn)變,加快人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程等政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, there has been a frequent phenomenon of global economic imbalances. Some developed countries believe that China's export policy is the cause of its economic imbalance. It not only accuses China, but also increases the strength of its foreign trade to force the RMB to appreciate. Economists are very worried that China's export competitiveness will be substantial because of the appreciation of the RMB. In fact, if the currency of the Southeast Asian countries can realize the collective appreciation of the RMB, the export competitiveness of our country will not be reversed by the appreciation of the RMB, so people don't have to worry too much about the negative effects of the appreciation of the RMB. On the contrary, the appreciation of the RMB can also bring many benefits, such as easing the balance of balance of payments, improving the overall welfare level of the region in Southeast Asia, and so on. Now China, as a new and changing country, is sure to rise again only when the time is ripe. However, as China becomes the leader of the world again, China will be the leader of the world again. The RMB is bound to go on the road of internationalization, not only because it represents the soft power of China's economy, but also the history of the currency derivation, the dollar and the pound can not escape this historical law. From another point of view, the closer economic and trade relations between China and the Southeast Asian countries show that the dominant position of the United States in Southeast Asia has been slowly taken. The substitution of China has laid a solid foundation not only for the RMB in the import and export trade of Southeast Asia, but also for a series of functions such as payment function and valuation means. It also creates conditions for RMB to gradually become the currency pegged by Southeast Asian countries, thus improving the actual situation of the RMB in the Southeast Asia region. At the same time, the promotion of RMB's position in Southeast Asia not only accelerated the speed of economic integration in Southeast Asia, but also expanded the scale of economic transactions in Southeast Asia. In turn, the reality produced the need to replace the currency of other countries in Southeast Asia, and reduced the increase in transaction costs in the region. The scale of each country's import and export trade and the efficiency of the transaction have reduced the countries' transition dependence on the US dollar and the world risk of the system, creating more opportunities for multilateral trade.
This paper analyzes whether the appreciation of RMB can promote the appreciation of the collective currency of the Southeast Asian countries from the perspective of the cancellation ability. The greater the economic scale, the stronger the cancellation ability. The reason is that the demand of a country's currency will increase with the expansion of its economic scale, and a large part of the money supply increases with the increase of foreign exchange reserves. Money can be absorbed by increased demand for money, thus reducing inflationary pressure, thus making it easier to write off and sterilizing.
On this basis, this paper uses the Fisher Equation to establish a theoretical model, and selects the quarterly data of 5 countries in China, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines from 2000 to 2010 as sample data to establish an empirical model. The empirical results show that the economic scale is positively related to the power of the cancellation. Then this paper is to 5 sample countries 2000. By analyzing the time series data of sample countries in the year 2010, the results show that China's sterilizing ability is indeed stronger than that of the other four countries.
On the basis of the above conclusion, this paper then analyzes the response of small countries in Southeast Asia to the appreciation of RMB. The author believes that, after the appreciation of the RMB, if the currencies of small countries in Southeast Asia do not follow the appreciation of the renminbi, the balance of balance of payments and the amount of foreign exchange reserves will increase, which will lead to inflation at home. The small economies of South Asia are small in scale, weak in cancellation, and can not suppress domestic prices by selling them. Thus the currency will eventually rise in value. Therefore, the huge difference between China and small countries in Southeast Asia will lead to the collective appreciation of the Southeast Asian Currency under the impetus of the appreciation of the renminbi. That is to say, people The appreciation of the renminbi will not seriously affect China's export competitiveness, and there is no need to worry about the appreciation of the renminbi.
Finally, this paper summarizes the conclusion that RMB can not only prevent the competitive devaluation of the currencies of Southeast Asian countries, but also can lead to the appreciation of the Southeast Asian countries' currency collective appreciation. It shows that the RMB has become a "hidden anchor" in the region of Southeast Asia. In cooperation, we should promote the formation of exchange rate cooperation system, promote the transformation of RMB from "hidden anchor" to "dominant anchor", and accelerate the process of RMB internationalization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F833.3

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