本文選題：短期國際資本流動(dòng) + 國際資本流動(dòng)監(jiān)管　； 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：論文主要內(nèi)容是從國際資本流動(dòng)的規(guī)模和構(gòu)成、國際資本流動(dòng)渠道和國際資本監(jiān)管政策的發(fā)展等多個(gè)角度分析我國資本流動(dòng)及其監(jiān)管的歷史、現(xiàn)狀和存在的問題,并針對(duì)這些問題提出政策建議。 隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化和金融自由化的進(jìn)程,短期國際資本流動(dòng)正扮演著越來越重要的角色,并推動(dòng)著這一趨勢(shì)的快速發(fā)展。我國政府開始放松之前嚴(yán)格的資本管制,讓外國投資者可以將資金投入中國的股市和其他金融市場(chǎng),更確切的講,中國外匯管理局已經(jīng)開始放松對(duì)合格境外機(jī)構(gòu)投資者的資本的限制,.以更加開放的姿態(tài)迎接海外的企業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)投資中國的證券市場(chǎng)。近年來,伴隨著人民幣強(qiáng)烈的升值預(yù)期,大規(guī)模投機(jī)性質(zhì)的外國資本涌入中國,這對(duì)我國國際資本流動(dòng)的監(jiān)管提出了新的挑戰(zhàn),而近年來我國國際資本流動(dòng)的規(guī)模幾何?我國對(duì)于短期資本流動(dòng)的監(jiān)管是否有效?這都是值得深思的問題,論文的研究意義正在于此。 文獻(xiàn)綜述部分首先確定短期國際資本流動(dòng)的概念,從它的易變性和投機(jī)性的角度出發(fā),認(rèn)為所謂短期國際資本流動(dòng)是指一國境內(nèi)賬戶中,所有可能在一年內(nèi)發(fā)生方向改變的資本。其次通過廣泛的查閱相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),分析前人研究國際資本流動(dòng)的規(guī)模測(cè)度分析,總結(jié)各個(gè)學(xué)者的觀點(diǎn),發(fā)現(xiàn)大部分學(xué)者都采取相類似的估算方法,同時(shí)根據(jù)自身需要和實(shí)際情況對(duì)短期國際資本流動(dòng)的規(guī)模測(cè)度方法進(jìn)行改進(jìn)。眾多短期國際資本流動(dòng)的測(cè)度方法可以分為非直接投資凈額調(diào)整法、直接法、間接法、摩根法、克萊因法和多利法六種,其中非直接投資凈額調(diào)整法和直接法計(jì)算原理較為簡便,估算出的短期國際資本流動(dòng)雖然易于理解但是并不能有效的對(duì)隱性資本流動(dòng)進(jìn)行測(cè)度,而摩根法、克萊因法和多利法從本質(zhì)上都屬于間接法的思路,只是對(duì)間接法的計(jì)算項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了細(xì)微的調(diào)整。通過對(duì)各種測(cè)度方法的測(cè)評(píng),最后確定論文的短期國際資本流動(dòng)的測(cè)度方法應(yīng)該遵循間接法的思路,并且根據(jù)具體情況進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的調(diào)整。 第二章節(jié)估算方法確定后,通過估算我國從1998年到2012年各個(gè)季度的國際短期資本流動(dòng)規(guī)模,發(fā)現(xiàn)國際資本流動(dòng)的確有很大的波動(dòng)性,頻繁出入,我國的資本流動(dòng)主要以流入為主,但存在突然流出的現(xiàn)象,如2012年流出額度達(dá)到1660億美元。另外基于估算結(jié)果還發(fā)現(xiàn),自2005年第一季度后我國國際資本流動(dòng)呈現(xiàn)明顯的周期性,呈現(xiàn)出“先凈流出,后凈流入”的波動(dòng)趨勢(shì)。 第三章節(jié)分析了我國隱性短期資本流動(dòng),分別從經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目下的隱性短期資本流動(dòng)和資本項(xiàng)目下的隱性資本流動(dòng)進(jìn)行分析。經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目方面具體分析了貿(mào)易偽報(bào)、預(yù)收貨款和延期付款、跨境關(guān)聯(lián)交易和其他非貿(mào)易渠道中可能隱藏的短期資本流動(dòng)；資本項(xiàng)目方面則具體分析了隱藏于外商直接投資、短期外債和非法途徑的短期資本流動(dòng)。除了利用選定的方法估算我國短期資本流動(dòng),論文還借鑒前人研究,估算了1998年到2012年我國年度貿(mào)易偽報(bào)的規(guī)模,以此分析隱性資本流動(dòng)的規(guī)模,及其對(duì)于我國國際資本流動(dòng)監(jiān)管的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)以2006年為分界,之前的貿(mào)易偽報(bào)主要是國際資本流入的渠道,而之后逐漸變成國際資本逃離我國的手段,這種變化在監(jiān)管政策的制定時(shí)應(yīng)予以充分的考慮。 通過對(duì)我國資本管制政策的研究,認(rèn)為我國目前存在多頭監(jiān)管、效率低下、監(jiān)管成本高、法制建設(shè)不健全等問題。最后,論文針對(duì)研究中發(fā)現(xiàn)的問題,對(duì)我國國際資本流動(dòng)的監(jiān)管提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議,認(rèn)為我國短期內(nèi)資本監(jiān)管仍有必要,但制定相關(guān)政策要符合當(dāng)時(shí)形勢(shì)和發(fā)展的需要,建立完善國際資本流動(dòng)預(yù)警體系。
[Abstract]:The main contents of this paper are the scale and composition of international capital flow , the development of international capital flow channel and international capital supervision policy , and the history , present situation and existing problems of our country ' s capital flow and its supervision , and put forward policy suggestions for these problems .

With the globalization of the economy and the process of financial liberalization , short - term international capital flows are playing an increasingly important role and pushing for the rapid development of this trend . Our government has begun to loosen up strict capital controls before allowing foreign investors to invest money in China ' s stock markets and other financial markets , more precisely , China ' s foreign exchange administration has begun to loosen restrictions on the capital of qualified foreign institutional investors . In recent years , with the strong appreciation of RMB , foreign capital of large - scale speculation has poured into China , which poses a new challenge to the regulation of international capital flow in China .

This paper first determines the concept of short - term international capital flow , from the point of view of its volatility and speculative nature , thinks so - called short - term international capital flow is the capital that can change in the course of one year .

The second chapter estimates the international short - term capital flows from 1998 to 2012 by estimating the international short - term capital flow size of our country from 1998 to 2012 .

The third chapter analyzes the latent short - term capital flows in China , and analyzes the hidden capital flows under the latent short - term capital flow under the current project and the implicit capital flows under the capital project , and analyzes the short - term capital flows which may be hidden in the trade fraud , the advance payment and the deferred payment , cross - border related transactions and other non - trade channels .
In addition to using the selected method to estimate the short - term capital flow in our country , the paper also draws on the former research and estimates the scale of China ' s annual trade false report from 1998 to 2012 . This paper estimates the scale of the implicit capital flow and its influence on the international capital flow supervision in China , and finds that the former trade fraud is mainly the channel of international capital inflow , and then gradually becomes the means of international capital flight from our country . This change should be taken into consideration in the formulation of the regulatory policy .

Based on the study of our country ' s capital control policy , it is concluded that there are many problems in our country , such as low supervision , low efficiency , high supervision cost and imperfect legal system construction . Finally , the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the supervision of international capital flow in our country . It is believed that the short - term capital supervision in our country is still necessary , but the relevant policies should meet the needs of the situation and development at the time , and establish the international capital flow early warning system .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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本文編號(hào)：2106411