發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-26 03:32

  本文選題：房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款 + 信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　； 參考：《河南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)在近20年中迅猛發(fā)展，已逐步成為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)新的增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)。由于房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)屬于資金密集型行業(yè)，其經(jīng)營(yíng)和發(fā)展需要大量的資金做后盾。而目前我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)融資渠道單一，，絕大多數(shù)資金來(lái)源于商業(yè)銀行的信用貸款。房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)固有的模式?jīng)Q定了開(kāi)發(fā)貸款具有貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)集中、抵押物價(jià)值波動(dòng)較大等特點(diǎn)，這也給商業(yè)銀行帶來(lái)了巨大的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。一旦開(kāi)發(fā)企業(yè)違約，商業(yè)銀行承擔(dān)的損失會(huì)很?chē)?yán)重。而在信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中，信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)又是最主要、影響性最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)種類(lèi)。因此，加強(qiáng)商業(yè)銀行房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究，有利于商業(yè)銀行提高貸款資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量，防范和控制信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，同時(shí)也有利于我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。 本文遵循“開(kāi)發(fā)貸款概要——開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成因分析——開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)量——開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范與控制”的思路，綜合使用了定性分析法、定量分析法、博弈論方法、實(shí)證分析等分析方法，對(duì)商業(yè)銀行房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做出分析和研究。 房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款主要指商業(yè)銀行對(duì)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)企業(yè)開(kāi)放的，用于住房、商業(yè)用房和其他房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)建設(shè)的中長(zhǎng)期項(xiàng)目貸款。具有貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)集中、還款來(lái)源渠道單一、開(kāi)發(fā)貸款抵押物價(jià)值不穩(wěn)定的特點(diǎn)。因此，商業(yè)銀行發(fā)放房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款，需要經(jīng)過(guò)項(xiàng)目立項(xiàng)、提交審定的程序，在發(fā)放貸款后還要關(guān)注貸款的貸后監(jiān)管。 文章主要從宏觀層面和微觀層面兩方面分析了開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成因。導(dǎo)致信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的宏觀層面的因素主要有二：一是宏觀政策變動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，包括利率政策變動(dòng)、信貸政策變動(dòng)、房地產(chǎn)稅收政策變動(dòng)等。二是經(jīng)濟(jì)周期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。開(kāi)發(fā)貸款周期與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的周期有很大的相關(guān)性，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的變化對(duì)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款也會(huì)產(chǎn)生巨大的影響。導(dǎo)致信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的微觀層面因素有很多，從借款企業(yè)角度，企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)狀況、企業(yè)規(guī)模、信譽(yù)、樓盤(pán)狀況等等因素都會(huì)影響到企業(yè)是否能夠及時(shí)足額還款；商業(yè)銀行角度，銀行的操作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、信貸審查制度等等因素也對(duì)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有較大影響。微觀層面的因素造成的后果主要是逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。逆向選擇行為會(huì)導(dǎo)致貸款對(duì)象的逆向選擇效應(yīng)、貸款利率的逆向選擇效應(yīng)和貸款抵押的逆向選擇效應(yīng)。而道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)則主要表現(xiàn)為：改變貸款用途，獲得貸款后不歸還貸款，通過(guò)假按揭騙取銀行貸款等。 房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量方法可以分為傳統(tǒng)方法和現(xiàn)代方法。傳統(tǒng)的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量方法主要包括專(zhuān)家方法、評(píng)級(jí)方法和信用評(píng)分方法。相比傳統(tǒng)模型，現(xiàn)代信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量模型更加注重現(xiàn)代金融理論和數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法的應(yīng)用，目前適用度較強(qiáng)的模型包括Credit Metrics模型、Credit Risk+模型、KMV模型、Credit Portfolio View模型和信貸分析系統(tǒng)模型。其中，CPV模型是唯一用經(jīng)濟(jì)狀態(tài)來(lái)模擬違約事件的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型，它能夠根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期來(lái)確定轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣。文章通過(guò)對(duì)比幾種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量模型，最終選擇用CPV（Credit PortfolioView）模型對(duì)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行度量。通過(guò)選取國(guó)房景氣指數(shù)、企業(yè)景氣指數(shù)、居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)和房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)四種宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量，運(yùn)用CPV方法得到的實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示，國(guó)房景氣指數(shù)、企業(yè)景氣指數(shù)及房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款違約率的影響是顯著的。 根據(jù)前文對(duì)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分析，文章提出防范和控制商業(yè)銀行房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的建議：一是要完善信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范手段，從完善我國(guó)征信系統(tǒng)和信用評(píng)級(jí)體系、建立開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系兩方面入手，分析了商業(yè)銀行在防范開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中的有效手段和措施。二是從完善開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制手段入手，提出要完善開(kāi)發(fā)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的檢測(cè)體系、貸款跟蹤管理制度以及創(chuàng)新房地產(chǎn)貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的轉(zhuǎn)移機(jī)制。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of real estate enterprises in recent 20 years , the real estate enterprises have gradually become the new growth point of national economy . As the real estate enterprises belong to the capital - intensive industries , the management and development of the real estate enterprises need a lot of money to be backed up . In the credit risk , the credit risk is the most important and the biggest risk category . Therefore , the credit risk management of the commercial banks is beneficial to the commercial banks to improve the quality of the loan assets , prevent and control the credit risk , and also benefit the healthy and stable development of the real estate market in China .

This paper is based on the idea of " developing loan summary _ development loan credit risk factor analysis _ development loan credit risk measurement _ development loan credit risk prevention and control " , synthetically using qualitative analysis method , quantitative analysis method , game theory method , empirical analysis and so on , analyzes and studies the credit risk of commercial bank real estate development loan .

Real estate development loans mainly refer to medium - and long - term project loans opened by commercial banks to real estate development enterprises for housing , commercial housing and other real estate development .

This paper mainly analyzes the causes of credit risk of development loan from both macro level and micro level . The macro level of credit risk is mainly two : one is the risk of macro - policy change , including interest rate policy change , credit policy change , real estate tax policy change , etc .
The angle of commercial bank , the operation risk of the bank , the credit review system and so on also have a great influence on the credit risk of the development loan . The result of the micro - level is mainly the adverse selection and moral hazard . The adverse selection behavior can lead to the adverse selection effect of the loan object , the adverse selection effect of the loan interest rate and the adverse selection effect of the loan mortgage .

Compared with the traditional model , the modern credit risk measurement model pays more attention to the application of the modern financial theory and the credit scoring method .

Based on the analysis of the credit risk of commercial banks , this paper puts forward some suggestions to prevent and control the credit risk of commercial banks ' real estate development loan .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.45

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本文編號(hào)：2068885