本文選題：超額貨幣 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長��； 參考：《天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,中國整個經(jīng)濟(jì)金融領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)生了一系列重大的變化,其中,貨幣供應(yīng)量、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率、通貨膨脹率之間出現(xiàn)了一種令人困擾的現(xiàn)象--我國以貨幣M2衡量的貨幣增長速度長期超過經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度與通貨膨脹率之和。超過經(jīng)濟(jì)增長所需的貨幣供應(yīng)的存在,及其對傳統(tǒng)貨幣數(shù)量論針對貨幣、產(chǎn)出、物價三者之間關(guān)系描述的違背,論文稱之為“超額貨幣”問題。 基于此,論文在綜合考慮各種因素的基礎(chǔ)上加以修正傳統(tǒng)貨幣數(shù)量論方程,深入分析超額貨幣供給相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象,探討其對經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融體系的影響。主要思路為：首先,對迄今為止對“超額貨幣”問題的有關(guān)研究進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的整理,并分析了相關(guān)理論假設(shè)解釋的內(nèi)容。然后,對中國的超額貨幣現(xiàn)象結(jié)合經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論展開討論。分別從中國經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣化、居民儲蓄行為、國家貨幣的內(nèi)生性、地方經(jīng)濟(jì)競爭四個方面的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象出發(fā),分析中國過高的M2/GDP比率、中國居民預(yù)防性儲蓄動機(jī)、國家隱性補(bǔ)貼、地方貨幣發(fā)行權(quán)分散等問題,得出超額貨幣現(xiàn)象在我國經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)實(shí)中是客觀存在著的結(jié)論。 對于我國超額貨幣程度的測量,大多數(shù)學(xué)者仍采用基于貨幣交易方程式的測量方法,但貨幣交易方程式中貨幣流通速度不變的假定在現(xiàn)今中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀下已不再適用�；诖�,論文采用國外普遍采用的“貨幣滯存”法對中國1991年-2011年的超額貨幣程度進(jìn)行了重新的測算,并以此為基礎(chǔ)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)我國超額貨幣程度對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和物價水平的影響。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)：超額貨幣對我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和物價水平有著較為明顯的影響,在短期內(nèi)超額貨幣對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有促進(jìn)作用,而長期內(nèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長有一定的阻礙作用；超額貨幣對我國的物價水平的影響是正向的且深遠(yuǎn)而持久。文章最后針對上述經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象分析和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果,提出制定更加靈活和有針對性的貨幣政策、推動資本市場有效發(fā)展、真正推進(jìn)利率市場化和金融區(qū)域化的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, a series of major changes have taken place in the whole economic and financial field of China. Among them, money supply, economic growth rate, There is a disturbing phenomenon between the inflation rate that the monetary growth rate measured by the money M2 in our country is longer than the sum of the economic growth rate and the inflation rate for a long time. The existence of money supply which exceeds the economic growth and the violation of the description of the relationship among money, output and price in the traditional quantitative theory of money is called "excess money" in this paper. Based on this, the paper modifies the traditional monetary quantitative equation on the basis of comprehensive consideration of various factors, deeply analyzes the economic phenomena related to the excess money supply, and probes into its influence on the economic and financial system. The main ideas are as follows: first of all, this paper makes a detailed arrangement of the researches on "excess currency" so far, and analyzes the contents of the theoretical hypotheses. Then, the phenomenon of excess money in China is discussed in combination with economic theory. Starting from the economic phenomena of China's economic monetization, residents' saving behavior, the endogenous nature of the national currency, and local economic competition, respectively, this paper analyzes China's excessive M _ 2 / GDP ratio, the Chinese residents' precautionary savings motive, and the state's implicit subsidies. This paper draws the conclusion that the phenomenon of excess money exists objectively in the economic reality of our country. For the measurement of the degree of excess money in China, most scholars still use the method based on the currency trading equation, but the assumption of the constant velocity of currency circulation in the currency trading equation is no longer applicable in the present economic development of China. Based on this, the paper remeasures the degree of excess money in China from 1991 to 2011 by using the "money stagnation" method which is widely used abroad, and empirically tests the influence of excess monetary degree on economic growth and price level. The results show that the excess currency has obvious influence on the economic growth and the price level of our country. In the short term, the excess currency can promote the economic growth, but in the long run it will hinder the economic growth to some extent. The influence of excess money on the price level of our country is positive, profound and lasting. Finally, according to the above economic phenomenon analysis and empirical test results, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to formulate more flexible and targeted monetary policy, to promote the effective development of capital market, and to promote the marketization of interest rate and financial regionalization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.2

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本文編號：2061127