本文選題：人民幣匯率 + 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易　； 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：匯率作為聯(lián)系國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的紐帶把各國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系為一體,在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的今天,匯率起著舉足輕重的作用,是調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)的最有效的方式之一,也是最直接的手段之一。我國(guó)2005年7月進(jìn)行匯率制度改革之后,有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度使匯率的不確定性以及復(fù)雜性加重,對(duì)我國(guó)的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生的影響也進(jìn)一步加大。 本文主要是針對(duì)“匯改”之后人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易影響進(jìn)行研究。基于匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易影響的一般機(jī)理,首先對(duì)在我國(guó)不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展時(shí)期、不同匯率制度下的匯率變化進(jìn)行分析,主要闡述2005年“匯改”后人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的積極和消極影響。然后采用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,分別研究了人民幣匯率變動(dòng)與我國(guó)進(jìn)、出口額、我國(guó)分類商品進(jìn)、出口額之間的關(guān)系,充分地揭示人民幣匯率變動(dòng)與我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易之間的關(guān)系。得出以下結(jié)論：第一,我國(guó)商品的進(jìn)出口彈性之和大于ML條件的臨界值1,說(shuō)明我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易商品符合馬歇爾-勒納條件,就是說(shuō)人民幣實(shí)際匯率升高,會(huì)使出口額增加,進(jìn)口額減少,能夠改善我國(guó)的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易狀況；實(shí)際匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)的進(jìn)口額和出口額都會(huì)產(chǎn)生影響；從相關(guān)變量系數(shù)上看,美國(guó)國(guó)民收入對(duì)出口量的影響程度比人民幣實(shí)際匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)進(jìn)口額的影響程度大很多,并且進(jìn)出口額是人民幣實(shí)際匯率的Granger原因。第二,我國(guó)不同類別商品的進(jìn)出口彈性有的滿足ML條件,有的不滿足,并且匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)不同類別商品的進(jìn)、出口額的影響程度也不盡相同。最后根據(jù)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果給出了在當(dāng)前環(huán)境下我國(guó)應(yīng)采取的措施來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)人民幣持續(xù)升值對(duì)進(jìn)出口的影響,進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大我國(guó)的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate, as a link to the international market, integrates the economic ties of various countries. Today, with the economic globalization, the exchange rate plays an important role, and is one of the most effective ways to regulate the international economy, and also one of the most direct means. After the reform of the exchange rate system in July 2005, the uncertainty and complexity of the exchange rate are aggravated by the managed floating exchange rate system, and the influence on China's import and export trade is further increased. This paper mainly focuses on the impact of RMB exchange rate change on China's import and export trade. Based on the general mechanism of the effect of exchange rate change on import and export trade, this paper first analyzes the exchange rate changes under different exchange rate regimes in different economic development periods of China. This paper mainly expounds the positive and negative effects of RMB appreciation on China's import and export trade after "exchange rate reform" in 2005. Then using the econometrics method to analyze the relationship between RMB exchange rate change and China's import, export, classified commodity import and export, respectively. Fully reveal the relationship between RMB exchange rate change and China's import and export trade. The conclusions are as follows: first, the sum of the import and export elasticity of Chinese commodities is greater than the critical value of ML condition, which indicates that the import and export commodities of our country conform to the Marshall-Lerner condition, that is to say, the increase in the real exchange rate of RMB will increase the export value. The decrease in import volume can improve the situation of China's import and export trade; the change of real exchange rate will have an impact on both the import value and the export value of our country; from the perspective of the coefficient of relevant variables, The influence of American national income on export volume is much greater than that of RMB real exchange rate, and the import and export value is the Granger reason of RMB real exchange rate. Secondly, the elasticity of import and export of different categories of commodities in China meets the ML condition or not, and the impact of exchange rate changes on the import and export of different categories of commodities is different. Finally, according to the results of empirical test, the measures that China should take in the current environment to deal with the impact of RMB appreciation on imports and exports, and further expand China's import and export trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F752.6;F832.6

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