本文選題：日本經(jīng)濟(jì) + 通貨緊縮�。� 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：日本經(jīng)濟(jì)曾經(jīng)創(chuàng)造過世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展史上的奇跡,而日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的突然的逆轉(zhuǎn),也讓世人噓唏不已。自從20世紀(jì)90年代初日本泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)破滅至今,日本經(jīng)濟(jì)一直停滯不前,并陷入長(zhǎng)期的通貨緊縮中。對(duì)于通貨緊縮現(xiàn)象長(zhǎng)期存在的原因,在學(xué)術(shù)界中也一直存在爭(zhēng)論,沒有形成一致的意見。通過對(duì)通貨緊縮問題的研究與分析,我們可以在理論上深化對(duì)其的認(rèn)識(shí)。由高速發(fā)展向平穩(wěn)發(fā)展過渡中,日本遇到過的問題及教訓(xùn),都可以成為我們寶貴的參考資料,對(duì)中國(guó)發(fā)展有著借鑒意義。 本文以需求沖擊為線索,對(duì)平成以來日本經(jīng)濟(jì)及各時(shí)期貨幣政策進(jìn)行了回顧。通過總結(jié)關(guān)于日本通貨緊縮成因在學(xué)術(shù)上的爭(zhēng)論,把日本通貨緊縮成因分為貨幣的因素和非貨幣的因素進(jìn)行分析。其中,非貨幣因素包括金融系統(tǒng)信用收縮、外部需求沖擊以及實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)性因素。超脫出供給端和需求端兩派的爭(zhēng)論,本文認(rèn)為供給端與需求端是相互作用的。全要素生產(chǎn)力與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期是一致的,這說明需求端對(duì)供給端是有影響的；另外,生產(chǎn)性沖擊是可以通過家庭收入、企業(yè)收益甚至資產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)民間消費(fèi)和民間投資產(chǎn)生影響的。 實(shí)證分析部分重點(diǎn)研究貨幣因素的影響程度,采用兩階段VAR模型,使用20世紀(jì)80年代到2012年的數(shù)據(jù),第一階段變量只包括社會(huì)總需求的六個(gè)分項(xiàng)變量,第二階段在上一階段的基礎(chǔ)上加入貨幣因素,包括利率、基礎(chǔ)貨幣和匯率,然后比較兩階段負(fù)沖擊殘差變化情況,看貨幣因素的貢獻(xiàn)大小。最后,實(shí)證結(jié)論為,在泡沫破滅的初始沖擊中,緊縮的貨幣政策是日本通緊縮初始原因。而之后長(zhǎng)期的通貨緊縮,貨幣因素并不是主要原因。本文將日本通貨緊縮分為兩個(gè)階段。分界點(diǎn)就是金融部門的不良債權(quán)基本得到解決。第一階段是從日本泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)破滅至2003年末,金融系統(tǒng)和企業(yè)部門都在進(jìn)行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表修復(fù),金融系統(tǒng)的信貸危機(jī)和企業(yè)部門主動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)向負(fù)債最小化則造成通貨緊縮；從2004年開始即進(jìn)入通貨緊縮的第二階段,實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的舊體制以及經(jīng)濟(jì)的結(jié)構(gòu)性問題則成為通貨緊縮更主要的原因。
[Abstract]:The Japanese economy has created a miracle in the history of the world economy, and the sudden reversal of the Japanese economy has also caused the world to sigh. Since the bursting of Japan's bubble economy in the early 1990s, Japan's economy has stagnated and plunged into long-term deflation. For the long-term cause of deflation, there has always been a debate in the academic community, there is no consensus opinion. Through the research and analysis of deflation, we can deepen our understanding of deflation theoretically. In the transition from high speed development to steady development, the problems and lessons that Japan has encountered can become our valuable reference material and have reference significance to the development of China. This paper reviews the Japanese economy and monetary policy since Pingcheng with the clue of demand shock. By summing up the academic debate on the causes of deflation in Japan, the causes of deflation in Japan are divided into monetary factors and non-monetary factors. Among them, non-monetary factors include credit contraction of financial system, external demand impact and structural factors of real economy. This paper argues that the supply-side and demand-side interact with each other beyond the argument of supply-side and demand-side. The total factor productivity is consistent with the economic cycle, which shows that the demand side has an influence on the supply side; in addition, the productive impact can affect private consumption and private investment through household income, enterprise income and even asset prices. The empirical analysis focuses on the impact of monetary factors, using a two-stage VAR model, using data from the 1980s to 2012. The first stage variables only include six sub-variables of total social demand. In the second stage, monetary factors, including interest rate, base currency and exchange rate, are added on the basis of the previous stage, and then the variation of the residual negative shock in the two stages is compared to see the contribution of monetary factors. Finally, the empirical conclusion is that, in the initial shock of bubble burst, tight monetary policy is the initial cause of Japan's deflation. And then long-term deflation, monetary factors are not the main cause. This paper divides Japanese deflation into two stages. The demarcation point is that the bad debts of the financial sector are basically solved. In the first stage, from the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy to the end of 2003, both the financial system and the enterprise sector are carrying out balance sheet repair, and the credit crisis in the financial system and the initiative shift of the enterprise sector to debt minimization lead to deflation. Since 2004, the second stage of deflation has been entered, and the old system of real economy and the structural problems of economy have become the main causes of deflation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F823.13

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王春峰,康莉,李汶華;中國(guó)通貨緊縮成因的實(shí)證研究——VAR方法[J];管理科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2000年01期

2 范從來;論通貨緊縮時(shí)期貨幣政策的有效性[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2000年07期

3 劉憲法;“日本陷阱”與當(dāng)前中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)實(shí)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;1999年08期

4 謝平;新世紀(jì)中國(guó)貨幣政策的挑戰(zhàn)[J];金融研究;2000年01期

5 黃桂田,尹福生;通貨緊縮的“外生性”與“內(nèi)生性”:相關(guān)關(guān)系及其形成機(jī)理——基于在通貨膨脹理論基礎(chǔ)上的一種理論分析[J];金融研究;2000年03期

6 崔巖;;日本平成經(jīng)濟(jì)論析——經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與周期波動(dòng)的變異及其影響因素[J];日本研究;2007年03期

7 裴桂芬;;日本數(shù)量寬松型貨幣政策及其效果分析[J];日本研究;2008年02期

8 朱民,陳衛(wèi)東;反通貨緊縮:政策選擇和滯脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——?dú)v史經(jīng)驗(yàn)和對(duì)我國(guó)的啟示[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì);2001年01期

9 馬建堂,楊正位;日本經(jīng)濟(jì):全面衰退、積重難返、教訓(xùn)深刻[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì);2002年01期

10 范從來,卞志村;日本通貨緊縮問題研究[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì);2003年04期

，

本文編號(hào)：2039364