本文選題：利率市場化 + 城商行��； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：利率是現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融的核心,它的走勢變化可以左右整個(gè)金融市場,對經(jīng)濟(jì)生活有著十分重要的影響。麥金農(nóng)和肖的“金融抑制論”和“金融深化論”主張放開利率管制,將利率交由資金市場供需來決定,抵消利率管制給經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來的負(fù)面影響。在這個(gè)理論引導(dǎo)下,眾多國家通過實(shí)行利率市場化在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展上取得了不錯(cuò)的成就。 自1978年改革開放以來,我國社會主義市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體制基本形成,但資金價(jià)格——利率仍沒有完全放開。而隨著金融的發(fā)展,利率市場化是大勢所趨。從1996年放開銀行間拆借利率以來,我國漸進(jìn)式利率市場化改革已走過十七個(gè)年頭。2008年后,因全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā),我國利率市場化改革出現(xiàn)暫時(shí)的停滯。2012年,我國利率市場化進(jìn)程明顯加速,人民銀行兩次非對稱降息,并放開存貸款利率浮動空間。“十二五”期間,我國利率市場化將進(jìn)入全速推進(jìn)時(shí)期,并有可能出現(xiàn)完全意義上的利率市場化。 隨著我國利率市場化改革的進(jìn)一步推進(jìn),我國的利率水平將更具有彈性和靈活性,將不可避免地對以利差收入為主的商業(yè)銀行產(chǎn)生巨大的影響,而城商行的凈利息收入占總業(yè)務(wù)收入比重更是處于我國銀行界前列。因此,利率市場化下,城商行將面臨更直接更激烈的沖擊。雖然近幾年,城商行發(fā)展迅速,在經(jīng)營模式、組織架構(gòu)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控、營銷管理等方面有長足的進(jìn)步,但與其他大型銀行相比,很多方面仍處于競爭劣勢當(dāng)中。因此,數(shù)量龐大的城商行如何在利率市場化背景下實(shí)現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展成為我國銀行界亟待解決的問題。 城商行因?yàn)槠錃v史沿留問題,整體經(jīng)營水平不高。利率市場化后,相對于大型銀行,城商行由于在機(jī)構(gòu)網(wǎng)點(diǎn)、業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新等方面并不存在優(yōu)勢,在與其他銀行進(jìn)行競爭時(shí)只能直接采取價(jià)格競爭策略,成本壓力急劇上升。同時(shí),利率市場化要求城商行針對不同客戶采取差異化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定階策略,這需要城商行必須具備較強(qiáng)的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理能力。而與大型銀行相比,大部分城商行缺乏自主定價(jià)能力和相關(guān)的量化模型和數(shù)據(jù)分析經(jīng)驗(yàn),暫且做不到成功的差異化定價(jià)。 總而言之,利率市場化改革必然會對我國城市商業(yè)銀行經(jīng)營管理造成重大影響。因此,本文以城商行發(fā)展特點(diǎn)作為切入點(diǎn),分別采用理論分析與實(shí)證分析、定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合的方法,結(jié)合香港地區(qū)利率市場化成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)和利率敏感性缺口管理方法,對利率市場化下我國城商行主要面臨的機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn)進(jìn)行分析,探討其未來發(fā)展中存在的問題和缺陷。最后針對城商行發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀提出相關(guān)對策和建議,具有較為深遠(yuǎn)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 全文結(jié)構(gòu)安排如下： 第一部分為導(dǎo)論,該部分包括五個(gè)問題：研究背景和意義；相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)綜述；論文研究方法；論文結(jié)構(gòu)和思路；論文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和存在的不足。 第二部分首先對利率市場化的內(nèi)涵進(jìn)行了闡述,并結(jié)合我國具體情況分析利率市場化改革對我國的特殊意義。其次回顧了我國利率市場化改革的歷史進(jìn)程。最后,在前面的基礎(chǔ)上,對我國利率市場化的改革提出了展望。 第三部分開篇將我國城商行的發(fā)展歷史從時(shí)間段上分為艱難起步、努力調(diào)整和快速發(fā)展三個(gè)階段進(jìn)行了分析,并從資產(chǎn)增速、混業(yè)化經(jīng)營、特色經(jīng)營、理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)和私人銀行五個(gè)方面對城商行的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了綜述。 第四部分主要分析利率市場化給城商行所帶來的影響。首先,文章針對城商行業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展特點(diǎn),主要從差異化經(jīng)營、定價(jià)機(jī)制調(diào)整、信貸市場份額三個(gè)方面論述了利率市場化為我國城商行帶來的機(jī)遇。然后,從盈利模式、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理能力、自主定價(jià)能力三個(gè)方面詳細(xì)論述了城商行在利率市場化下所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。其中,文章重點(diǎn)從定性和定量兩個(gè)方面對我國城商行在利率市場化下面臨的利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分析。首先從定性角度將利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分為階段性利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和恒久性利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn),其中,對恒久性利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分析又從重新定價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、基準(zhǔn)利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、收益率曲線風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、期權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)四個(gè)角度進(jìn)行闡述。其次,文章選取了七個(gè)城商行作為樣本行,利用利率敏感性缺口和壓力測試對樣本行的利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理能力進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。而在壓力測試分析樣本行利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中,又根據(jù)存貸款利率幅度調(diào)整是否一致分為兩種情況進(jìn)行比較分析。最后,結(jié)合城商行發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,對利率市場化給城商行帶來的其他類型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了一個(gè)概括。 第五部分是本文核心部分,從多角度對利率市場化進(jìn)程中城商行應(yīng)如何穩(wěn)健發(fā)展這一問題進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)回答。具體可以從傳統(tǒng)利差業(yè)務(wù)向中間業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)型、差異化戰(zhàn)略定位、完善定價(jià)機(jī)制、加強(qiáng)營銷管理、降低運(yùn)營成本、實(shí)行全面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理等諸多方面做文章。在業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)型方面,城商行可以花大力氣培養(yǎng)中間業(yè)務(wù)和零售業(yè)務(wù),帶來新的利潤增長點(diǎn)。在與大型銀行就業(yè)務(wù)市場份額爭奪來看,城商行應(yīng)發(fā)揮其地緣和人緣優(yōu)勢,立足本地,發(fā)展本土化、特色化金融產(chǎn)品,填補(bǔ)大型銀行定位上的空缺。差異化戰(zhàn)略定位則要求城商行根據(jù)自身特點(diǎn),選擇適合自身發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略方向。城商行從剛誕生開始,就處于銀行業(yè)競爭中的弱勢地位,并不適合與大型銀行在其擁有既得優(yōu)勢的業(yè)務(wù)上正面較量。反而,應(yīng)投入足夠的資源另辟蹊徑,形成自己特有的業(yè)務(wù)優(yōu)勢和品牌效應(yīng)。另一方面,利率市場化下銀行同業(yè)競爭將更多地轉(zhuǎn)向價(jià)格上的競爭,因此要求城商行須具備與其相匹配的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定價(jià)能力,特別是貸款定價(jià)能力�，F(xiàn)階段,城商行對于客戶的定價(jià)通常先取決于行業(yè),而非個(gè)別客戶的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況。而科學(xué)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定價(jià)機(jī)制有針對各類客戶市場的專門業(yè)務(wù)模式,制定高度差異化的定價(jià)類別。與此同時(shí),利率市場化給城商行帶來的不僅有傳統(tǒng)意義上的利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn),還有流動性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此,城商行應(yīng)在全行范圍內(nèi)增強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意識,建立覆蓋市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、操作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的全面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理模式。而對于最為突出的利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn),城商行應(yīng)提高缺口管理水平,改善資產(chǎn)負(fù)債失衡狀況并建立多層次利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系。另外,對于小型城商行而言,引進(jìn)戰(zhàn)略投資者可以在短期內(nèi)彌補(bǔ)其產(chǎn)品稀少的缺點(diǎn),提高其市場競爭力。而加強(qiáng)營銷管理和減少運(yùn)營成本則使得城商行避免進(jìn)入“大而全”的粗放型發(fā)展模式,而以精細(xì)化的發(fā)展策略來應(yīng)對利率市場化所帶來的不利影響,不被市場所拋棄。 文章主要貢獻(xiàn)是目前國內(nèi)文獻(xiàn)大多數(shù)基于銀行業(yè)整體的角度來分析利率市場化對商業(yè)銀行的影響及就對策略,未將城商行和大型商業(yè)銀行有效區(qū)分開來,針對性地研究。本文總結(jié)歸納城商行自身發(fā)展特點(diǎn),以此為突破口,深入分析利率市場化進(jìn)程中城商行受到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與沖擊,并針對城商行發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀提出相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對策略。此外,文章借助最新的銀行報(bào)表數(shù)據(jù)從利率敏感性比率指標(biāo)論證了城商行在利率市場化進(jìn)程中面臨的利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)情況,并在壓力測試方法中就存貸款利率調(diào)整幅度分為一致性和非一致性兩種情景,以求能全面測量城商行所面臨的利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文在以下方面仍存在不足：首先,我國城商行數(shù)量高達(dá)一百多家,每家城商行的發(fā)展階段、規(guī)模等各不相同,具有較大的差異性。本文只能嘗試性在城商行群體共性的基礎(chǔ)上對本文進(jìn)行了分析敘述,并沒有對此進(jìn)行深入和細(xì)化,所以從整體而言研究分析方面都比較籠統(tǒng),缺乏針對性；其次,本文主要從各城商行年報(bào)中獲取數(shù)據(jù),因?yàn)樵S多城商行只在近幾年開始對外公布數(shù)據(jù),且為了對本行經(jīng)營管理數(shù)據(jù)的保密,所以數(shù)據(jù)上存在一些缺失導(dǎo)致實(shí)證部分做得不夠深入和粗糙；最后,鑒于作者的知識結(jié)構(gòu)和相關(guān)實(shí)務(wù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的缺乏,對于文中一些利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和城商行業(yè)務(wù)的分析不夠深入和全面,需要進(jìn)一步的改進(jìn)。
[Abstract]:Interest rate is the core of modern economy and finance. The change of its trend can affect the whole financial market, and it has a very important influence on the economic life. Mackinnon and Shaw's "financial restraint theory" and "financial deepening theory" advocate liberalizing interest rate control, deciding interest rate to the supply and demand of capital market, counteracting the interest rate control to the Economic Development Zone The negative influence. In this theory under the guidance of many countries through the implementation of the marketization of interest rate in the national economic development has made great achievements.
Since the reform and opening up in 1978, our socialist market economic system has basically formed, but the price of funds has not been completely liberalized. With the development of finance, interest rate marketization is the trend of the times. Since the opening of inter-bank lending rate in 1996, the reform of China's gradual rate market reform has gone through seventeen years after.2008 years, Because of the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the reform of interest rate marketization in China has been temporarily stagnant in.2012 years, the process of interest rate marketization in China has accelerated obviously. The two times of the people's Bank of China is asymmetrical, and the interest rate floating space is open. In 12th Five-Year, China's interest rate marketization will enter the period of full speed, and it may have full significance. The interest rate market.
With the further promotion of China's interest rate marketization reform, China's interest rate level will be more flexible and flexible, and will inevitably have a great impact on commercial banks, which are mainly profit margin, and the net interest income of the commercial banks is in the forefront of the total business income in our country. Therefore, the interest rate is marketed. The city business bank will face a more direct and more intense impact. Although the city commercial bank has developed rapidly in recent years, it has made considerable progress in the management mode, organization structure, risk prevention and control, marketing management and so on, but compared with other large banks, many aspects are still in the competitive disadvantage. To achieve leapfrog development of China's banking sector has become the problem to be solved.
The city commercial bank has not high overall management level because of its historical retention problem. After the interest rate marketization, the city commercial bank has no advantage in the aspects of the institutional network, the business scale, the technological innovation and so on. It can only take the price competition strategy directly when competing with other banks, and the cost pressure rises sharply. At the same time, the interest rate market It requires the city firm to adopt a differential risk order strategy for different customers, which requires a strong credit risk management ability of the city firm. Compared with the large banks, most of the city firms lack the independent pricing ability and related quantitative model and data analysis experience, and do not make a successful differential pricing for the time being.
In a word, the reform of the interest rate marketization will inevitably have a significant impact on the management and management of the urban commercial banks in China. Therefore, this paper takes the development characteristics of the city commercial bank as a breakthrough point, using theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, combining the successful experience of interest rate marketization and interest rate sensitivity in Hongkong region. The method of perceptual gap management is to analyze the main opportunities and challenges faced by the commercial banks of China under the market-oriented interest rate, and to discuss the problems and defects in the future development. Finally, the relevant countermeasures and suggestions for the development of city commercial banks are put forward, which have far-reaching practical significance.
The main contents are as follows:
The first part is the introduction, which includes five questions: the research background and significance; related literature review; the research method of the paper; the structure and thought of the paper; the innovation and deficiency of the paper.
The second part first expounds the connotation of the interest rate marketization, and analyzes the special significance of the interest rate marketization reform in our country. Secondly, it reviews the historical process of the reform of the interest rate marketization in China. Finally, on the basis of the preceding, it puts forward the prospect of the reform of the interest rate marketization in China.
The third part divides the development history of the Chinese city business from the time section into a difficult start, and analyzes the three stages of the effort adjustment and rapid development, and summarizes the development of the city business from five aspects: the growth of the assets, the mixed operation, the characteristic management, the financial business and the private bank.
The fourth part mainly analyzes the influence of the interest rate marketization to the city commercial bank. Firstly, the article aims at the characteristics of the business development of the city commercial bank, mainly from the differential operation, the adjustment of the pricing mechanism, and the credit market share in three aspects, the interest rate marketization is brought to the Commercial Bank of our city. Then, from the profit model, the risk management ability and autonomy. The three aspects of pricing ability are discussed in detail, which are faced by the commercial banks in the interest rate marketization. In this paper, the interest rate risk is analyzed from two aspects of the qualitative and quantitative aspects. First, the interest rate risk is divided into stage interest risk and permanent interest rate wind from the qualitative point of view. In the analysis of the permanent interest rate risk, the analysis of the interest rate risk is from four angles: the pricing risk, the benchmark interest rate risk, the yield curve risk and the option risk. Secondly, the article selects seven cities as the sample line, and uses the interest rate sensitivity gap and the pressure test to test the interest rate risk and the interest rate risk management ability of the sample bank. The empirical analysis is carried out, and in the analysis of the risk of the rate of interest rate in the sample of the pressure test, it is compared and analyzed in two cases according to whether the interest rate adjustment of the deposit and loan rate is unanimous. Finally, combined with the development status of the city commercial bank, the other types of risks brought by the interest rate marketization to the commercial banks are summarized.
The fifth part is the core part of this paper. From many angles, it gives a detailed answer to the problem of how the commercial banks should develop steadily in the process of interest rate marketization, which can be transformed from the traditional service to the intermediate business, the positioning of the differential strategy, the improvement of the pricing mechanism, the strengthening of the marketing management, the reduction of the operation cost and the implementation of the comprehensive risk management. In terms of business transformation, the city business bank can make great efforts to cultivate intermediate and retail business and bring new profit growth points. In view of the competition with large banks on business market share, the city business bank should give full play to its geopolitical and human advantages, based on local, localization, characteristic financial products, and filling large banks. The difference strategy orientation requires the city firm to choose the strategic direction suitable for its own development according to its own characteristics. The city business bank is in a weak position in the banking competition from the beginning of its birth. It is not suitable for a large bank to compete positively in the business with its own advantages. Instead, it should invest enough resources. On the other hand, on the other hand, the interbank competition under the interest rate marketization will turn more to the price competition, so the city firm must have the ability to match the risk pricing, especially the loan pricing ability. The risk pricing mechanism of a scientific risk pricing mechanism has a highly differentiated pricing category for various customer markets. At the same time, the interest rate marketization brings not only the interest rate risk, but also the liquidity risk, the credit risk, and other risks caused by the interest rate marketization to the city commercial bank. Therefore, the city commercial banks should strengthen the risk awareness and establish a comprehensive risk management model covering market risk, credit risk and operational risk. For the most prominent interest rate risk, the city commercial bank should improve the level of the gap management, improve the balance of balance of assets and liabilities and establish a multi-level interest rate risk management system. In addition, the small scale of interest rate risk management system should be built. In the case of city business, the introduction of strategic investors can make up for the shortcoming of their scarce products in the short term and improve their market competitiveness, while strengthening marketing management and reducing operating costs makes them avoid entering the "large and full" extensive development model, and deal with the adverse effects of interest rate marketization with a fine development strategy. Loud, don't be abandoned by the market.
The main contribution of this article is to analyze the impact of interest rate marketization on commercial banks based on the overall view of banking industry at present. In the process of marketization, the risk and impact of city commercial banks are put forward, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward in view of the development status of city commercial banks. In addition, the article demonstrates the interest rate risk in the process of interest rate marketization with the use of the latest bank statement data from the rate sensitive ratio index, and saves and loans in the pressure testing method. The interest rate adjustment is divided into two scenarios of consistency and inconsistency, in order to complete measurement of city commercial banks face interest rate risk.
In the following aspects, there are still shortcomings in the following aspects: first, the number of Chinese city commercial banks is up to more than 100, and the development stage of each city business bank is different and different in scale. This article can only try to analyze and describe this article on the basis of the general commonness of the city business bank, and do not further and refine this. As a whole, the research and analysis are relatively general and lack of pertinence. Secondly, this paper mainly obtains data from the annual reports of the cities, because many city firms have only published data in recent years, and in order to keep the management data of the bank confidential, the data are missing in the empirical part. In the end, in view of the lack of the author's knowledge structure and relevant practical experience, the analysis of some interest rate risks and the business of the city business is not thorough and comprehensive, and further improvement is needed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.33

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