本文選題：人民幣國際化 + 貨幣替代　； 參考：《中共中央黨校》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：自2008年世界性的金融危機(jī)發(fā)生之后，各國政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人、央行等金融監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)管理者、金融經(jīng)濟(jì)專業(yè)的學(xué)者們紛紛重新審視與反思國際貨幣體系的潛在風(fēng)險、金融體制深入改革的必要性以及美元占主導(dǎo)的國際貨幣體系存在的合理性與否等深層次經(jīng)濟(jì)難題。近30多年以來，隨著中國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)、快速、穩(wěn)定地增長，綜合國力不斷增強(qiáng)，人民幣逐步走出國門，開始融入世界貨幣金融體系之中。同時，自20世紀(jì)90年代以來，我國的國際收支基本保持“雙順差”，外匯儲備不斷上升，外匯儲備保值升值的經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力也隨之增大，為了解決外貿(mào)金融領(lǐng)域里結(jié)構(gòu)性難題，需要盡快構(gòu)建外國資本與國內(nèi)實體經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的貨幣流通渠道，為此，中央政府一方面明確授權(quán)香港并致力于將其建設(shè)成為“人民幣離岸中心”，另一方面在國家發(fā)改委發(fā)布的上海國際金融中心建設(shè)“十二五”規(guī)劃中提出，到2015年要將其作為全球人民幣中心的地位。在當(dāng)前復(fù)雜、多變的國際經(jīng)濟(jì)金融形勢背景下，中國政府與金融界將不得不面臨如何應(yīng)對匯率的頻繁波動，如何應(yīng)對全球的資本流動，如何借鑒國際貨幣的發(fā)展路徑，如何把握人民幣國際化的現(xiàn)狀，如何推動人民幣國際化的進(jìn)程，如何對人民幣國際化實行有效的管理等一系列突出問題的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)，而這些問題是否能夠得到有效解決又必定將會對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與金融秩序穩(wěn)定起到?jīng)Q定性的影響作用。因此，人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略路徑與框架等相關(guān)問題就成為了我們中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理與金融領(lǐng)域里的理論與實務(wù)工作者們必須深入研究與探討的重要課題。 本文運(yùn)用理論和實證分析相結(jié)合、歷史和邏輯分析相結(jié)合、比較分析與歸納總結(jié)相結(jié)合的研究方法，從國家發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的視角，研究人民幣國際化目標(biāo)的實現(xiàn)問題，意在通過分析人民幣國際化的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，借鑒其他國際貨幣國際化的發(fā)展路徑與經(jīng)驗，探討人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略的實現(xiàn)路徑與方法，提供人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略實施的設(shè)想，并為我國政府進(jìn)一步完善人民幣國際化宏觀調(diào)控與管理提供政策建議，從而更好地服務(wù)人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略的順利推進(jìn)。本文將經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的一些經(jīng)典理論引入到了人民幣國際化的實際分析之中，對于人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中的匯率制度、貨幣政策、開放程度、政府調(diào)控等問題進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)性地分析與研究；并對美元、日元、歐元等三種主要貨幣的國際化路徑展開全面分析，而且本文十分注重歷史分析、理論分析和實證分析方法的綜合運(yùn)用，試圖理順貨幣國際化與多方面決定因素之間的關(guān)系，深入系統(tǒng)地思考主要國際貨幣理論的框架體系和嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)脈絡(luò)，筆者以為這些研究對人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略的構(gòu)建與實施具有重要參考價值和現(xiàn)實意義。本文致力于把握國際貨幣體系改革契機(jī)，系統(tǒng)設(shè)計人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略發(fā)展的路徑與框架，提出在人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中運(yùn)用高效的宏觀管理模式的建議，以便從金融風(fēng)險，外匯管理，政策選擇，內(nèi)外部經(jīng)濟(jì)矛盾的協(xié)調(diào)等多個方面為政府部門的宏觀調(diào)控提供參考，因而，本文的研究具有較強(qiáng)的實踐性與操作性。 本文共分導(dǎo)論、正文和結(jié)論等三大部分，各部分的主要內(nèi)容包括： 第一部分導(dǎo)論。本部分內(nèi)容主要是闡述本文選題的研究背景和現(xiàn)實意義，對現(xiàn)有貨幣國際化相關(guān)研究成果進(jìn)行文獻(xiàn)綜述，介紹研究內(nèi)容和方法，概括本文研究的創(chuàng)新與不足。 第二部分正文。正文部分共分六章內(nèi)容進(jìn)行闡述，各章內(nèi)容分述如下： 第一章貨幣國際化的相關(guān)理論。本章主要圍繞貨幣替代理論、蒙代爾的貨幣理論和三元悖論三部分內(nèi)容展開。從貨幣替代理論的含義、相關(guān)模型、影響因素等方面闡述了貨幣替代理論的內(nèi)容和發(fā)展過程。蒙代爾的最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論和蒙代爾——弗萊明模型，是本文研究分析人民國際化進(jìn)程中，推進(jìn)人民幣區(qū)域化的理論基礎(chǔ)，也為三元悖論的發(fā)展提供了分析方法。在開放經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下，對資本完全自由流動、固定匯率制度和自由貨幣政策的選擇進(jìn)行了探討，目的是為本文后續(xù)章節(jié)的深入研究做好理論準(zhǔn)備。 第二章人民幣國際化進(jìn)程的現(xiàn)狀及其存在的問題。本章主要是通過觀察我國在經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的新環(huán)境下人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中現(xiàn)狀，歸納其中存在的突出問題。本章從人民幣跨境流動的主要原因和途徑對人民幣國際化的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析，特別是對人民幣信用、國家實力、外匯儲備等幾個方面做詳細(xì)闡述，并根據(jù)現(xiàn)有資料對人民幣跨境流通的數(shù)量進(jìn)行估算。同時從鑄幣稅收入、匯兌風(fēng)險、金融市場發(fā)展、市場沖擊、貨幣政策自由度、監(jiān)管等多個角度，對人民幣跨境流通的利弊作了深入探討，進(jìn)而結(jié)合實際數(shù)據(jù)與案例，如剖析了影響人民幣國際化進(jìn)程的因素，如國家金融政策、離岸市場、金融中心建設(shè)規(guī)劃等，進(jìn)而對人民幣發(fā)展環(huán)境、挑戰(zhàn)與趨勢等進(jìn)行了分析。 第三章人民幣國際化進(jìn)程的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論分析。本章主要是分析人民幣國際化的含義、機(jī)理與實現(xiàn)路徑。首先，對人民幣國際化內(nèi)涵和形成機(jī)理進(jìn)行闡述，分析了人民幣國際化的條件，并詳細(xì)探討了經(jīng)常項目、資本項目自由可兌換與人民幣國際化的關(guān)系。從市場演進(jìn)與政府主導(dǎo)兩個角度提出了人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中的自然驅(qū)動與政策驅(qū)動等關(guān)鍵影響因素；概述了人民幣國際化的正反效應(yīng)與主要測度指標(biāo)。最后，從理論上探討了人民幣戰(zhàn)略的主要誘因和實現(xiàn)途徑。其中人民幣戰(zhàn)略測度部分中主要運(yùn)用實證分析方法，選擇了與人民幣國際化相關(guān)度較高的貨幣國際化指標(biāo)（如貨幣供應(yīng)量、進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額、外商直接投資、外匯儲備等）進(jìn)行了定量化的分析。 第四章美日歐貨幣國際化實踐的經(jīng)驗及其啟示。本章主要是對現(xiàn)有的世界主要國際貨幣發(fā)展過程進(jìn)行研究，，選取美元、歐元和日元的國際化歷程作為案例。以美歐日三種貨幣國際化過程中的異同作為分析的主要部分。從三種貨幣國際化的路徑研究出發(fā)，對其過程中的共同點從經(jīng)濟(jì)實力、幣值穩(wěn)定程度、央行信譽(yù)、金融市場廣度與深度、央行對貨幣國際化的態(tài)度等幾個方面做了詳細(xì)探討，并從中歸納了三種貨幣國際化模式的差異。尤其突出日元在國際化進(jìn)程中的特殊之處。并在此基礎(chǔ)上，總結(jié)三種貨幣國際化發(fā)展道路中的經(jīng)驗和教訓(xùn)，為我國人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略的順利實施提供有益的啟示與借鑒。 第五章人民幣國際化進(jìn)程的框架設(shè)計與戰(zhàn)略構(gòu)想。本章首先是探討了人民幣國際化一體化與區(qū)域化等戰(zhàn)略的必要性和可行性；其次是對于人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略提出“三步走”的戰(zhàn)略思路與結(jié)構(gòu)框架構(gòu)建問題進(jìn)行了設(shè)計，然后提出了人民幣國際化需經(jīng)歷貨幣一體化和貨幣區(qū)域化的過程，并逐漸過度到國際化的戰(zhàn)略構(gòu)想與思路。本章由整合目前“一國三幣”的貨幣一體化構(gòu)想開始，并考慮了臺幣問題及東盟地區(qū)貨幣的合作問題。從經(jīng)濟(jì)開放性、產(chǎn)品多樣性、要素流動性、金融一體化等多個方面分析了貨幣一體化的可行性，并就貨幣整合的具體步驟和策略提出了構(gòu)想。在實現(xiàn)一體化的基礎(chǔ)上向區(qū)域化推進(jìn)，本章同樣從多個角度分析了人民幣區(qū)域化實現(xiàn)的重要性，并對可行性進(jìn)行了分析，再此基礎(chǔ)上設(shè)計與構(gòu)思了人民幣區(qū)域化戰(zhàn)略的策略與框架。 第六章完善人民幣國際化宏觀管理的政策建議。本章主要是針對人民幣國際化進(jìn)程提出宏觀管理的設(shè)想。內(nèi)容涉及到關(guān)于金融風(fēng)險測量、金融風(fēng)險防范、外匯管理、匯率政策選擇、內(nèi)外部經(jīng)濟(jì)的矛盾和協(xié)調(diào)以及政府宏觀調(diào)控幾個方面的具體內(nèi)容；最后，基于構(gòu)建起更加完善的人民幣國際化的宏觀管理模式的目的，為政府相關(guān)決策部門推動并實施人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略提供了若干政策建議。 第三部分結(jié)論。結(jié)論部分主要是對全文已經(jīng)進(jìn)行研究是主要內(nèi)容和核心觀點做出歸納與總結(jié)，并對人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中近期將要面臨的問題和未來可能的變化做些具有前瞻性的預(yù)測與展望。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 world financial crisis, government leaders, central bank and other financial regulators, financial and economic professionals have reexamined and reconsidered the potential risks of the international monetary system, the necessity of deepening the reform of the financial system and the reasonableness of the existence of the dollar dominated international monetary system. In the last 30 years, with the sustained, rapid, steady growth of China's national economy and the increasing overall national strength, the RMB has gradually stepped out of the country and began to integrate into the world monetary and financial system. At the same time, since 1990s, China's international balance of payments has basically maintained a "double surplus" and the foreign exchange reserves are rising. In order to solve the structural problems in the field of foreign trade and finance, the currency circulation channel between foreign capital and domestic real economy should be set up as soon as possible. Therefore, the central government, on the one hand, explicitly authorizes Hongkong to build it into the "RMB offshore center", the other side. In the 12th Five-Year plan issued by the national development and Reform Commission, the Shanghai international financial center proposed the position of the global RMB center by 2015. Under the current complex and changeable international economic and financial situation, the Chinese government and the financial sector will have to face how to cope with the frequent fluctuations in the exchange rate and how to deal with it. The capital flow of the ball, how to draw on the development path of international currency, how to grasp the current situation of the internationalization of RMB, how to promote the process of internationalization of RMB and how to manage the internationalization of RMB effectively and so on a series of serious challenges, and whether these problems can be effectively solved and will certainly be to China. The economic development and the stability of the financial order have played a decisive role. Therefore, the relevant issues of the strategic path and framework of the internationalization of the RMB have become an important subject for the theoretical and practical workers in the field of macro economic management and finance in China.
This paper combines theory with empirical analysis, combination of historical and logical analysis, comparative analysis and summary of research methods, from the perspective of national development strategy, to study the realization of the goal of RMB internationalization. It is intended to analyze the development of RMB internationalization and draw lessons from the development of international currency internationalization. Path and experience, explore the ways and means to realize the internationalization strategy of RMB, provide the idea of the implementation of the internationalization strategy of RMB, and provide policy suggestions for our government to further improve the macro regulation and management of RMB internationalization, so as to better serve the smooth progress of the internationalization strategy of RMB. The canonical theory is introduced into the actual analysis of the internationalization of RMB. It systematically analyzes and studies the exchange rate system, monetary policy, openness and government regulation in the process of RMB internationalization, and analyzes the internationalization path of the three main currencies, such as the dollar, yen, and euro, and this article is very important. Pay attention to the comprehensive application of historical analysis, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis methods, try to straighten out the relationship between currency internationalization and many factors, and deeply and systematically consider the framework and rigorous context of the main international monetary theory. I think these studies have an important reference for the construction and implementation of the internationalization strategy of RMB. This article is devoted to grasp the opportunity of the reform of the international monetary system and systematically design the path and frame of the development of the RMB internationalization strategy, and put forward some suggestions on the use of the efficient macro management mode in the process of RMB internationalization, so as to make the financial risk, foreign exchange management, policy choice, and coordination of internal and external economic contradictions and so on. One aspect is to provide reference for the macro regulation and control of government departments. Therefore, the research in this paper has strong practicality and operability.
This article is divided into three parts: introduction, main body and conclusion.
The first part is the introduction. This part is mainly about the research background and practical significance of this topic, the literature review of the existing research achievements on the current currency internationalization, the introduction of the research content and methods, and the innovation and deficiency of this study.
The second part is the body. The main body is divided into six chapters. The contents of each chapter are as follows:
The first chapter is related to the theory of currency internationalization. This chapter mainly focuses on the currency substitution theory, Mundell's monetary theory and the three element paradox in three parts. It expounds the content and development process of the currency substitution theory from the meaning of the currency substitution theory, the related models and the influencing factors. The theory of Mundell's optimal currency area and the Mongol generation are discussed. The Fleming model is the theoretical basis for the analysis of the internationalization of the people in the process of the people's internationalization. It also provides an analytical method for the development of the three yuan paradox. Under the open economy, the complete free flow of capital, the fixed exchange rate system and the choice of free currency policy are discussed. The purpose is to be the following. The further study of the continued chapter is ready for theoretical preparation.
The second chapter is the current situation and existing problems of the process of RMB internationalization. This chapter mainly analyzes the current situation in the process of RMB internationalization under the new environment of economic transformation. This chapter analyzes the current situation of RMB internationalization from the main reasons and ways of the cross-border flow of RMB, especially the current situation of RMB internationalization. It describes the RMB credit, national strength, foreign exchange reserve and other aspects, and estimates the number of cross-border circulation of RMB in accordance with the existing data. At the same time, the advantages and disadvantages of RMB's cross-border circulation are made from several angles, such as seigniorage income, exchange risk, financial market development, market impact, monetary policy freedom, supervision and so on. In-depth discussion, and then combined with actual data and cases, such as the analysis of factors affecting the process of RMB internationalization, such as the national financial policy, offshore market, financial center construction planning, and then the development of the RMB environment, the challenge and trend of the analysis of the trend.
The third chapter is the economic theory analysis of the internationalization process of RMB. This chapter mainly analyzes the meaning, mechanism and realization path of RMB internationalization. First, it expounds the connotation and formation mechanism of RMB internationalization, analyzes the conditions of the internationalization of RMB, and discusses in detail the regular items, the free convertible of capital account and the RMB country. From the two angles of market evolution and government leadership, the key factors such as natural driving and policy driving in the process of RMB internationalization are proposed, and the positive and negative effects and main measure indexes of RMB internationalization are summarized. Finally, the main inducements and ways of realizing the strategy of RMB war are discussed theoretically. In the part of the currency strategy measure, the main use of the empirical analysis method is to choose the quantitative analysis of the currency internationalization index (such as money supply, import and export trade volume, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserve, etc.) which have high correlation with the internationalization of RMB.
The fourth chapter is the experience and Enlightenment of the international practice of American and Japanese currency internationalization. This chapter mainly studies the development process of the main international currency in the world and selects the internationalization of the dollar, the euro and the yen as a case. The main part of the analysis is the similarities and differences between the three currencies in the United States and Europe and the internationalization of the three currencies. On the basis of the study of the path, the common points in the process are discussed in detail from the economic strength, the stability of the currency value, the reputation of the central bank, the breadth and depth of the financial market, the attitude of the central bank to the internationalization of money, and the differences between the three modes of internationalization of the currency. On the basis of this, we summarize the experiences and lessons of the three ways of internationalization of currency development, and provide useful inspiration and reference for the smooth implementation of the internationalization strategy of China's RMB.
The fifth chapter is the framework design and strategic conception of the process of RMB internationalization. This chapter first discusses the necessity and feasibility of the integration and regionalization of RMB internationalization. Secondly, it designs the strategic thinking and structural framework of the "three step" strategy for RMB internationalization strategy, and then puts forward the people. This chapter begins with the integration of the current "one country and three currency" concept of currency integration, and considers the problem of Taiwan currency and the cooperation of the ASEAN currency. From the economic openness, product diversity and element flow The feasibility of currency integration is analyzed in many aspects, such as sex and financial integration, and the concrete steps and Strategies of monetary integration are put forward. The importance of the regionalization of RMB is analyzed from several angles, and the feasibility is analyzed. The strategy and framework of RMB regionalization strategy are designed and conceived.
The sixth chapter consummates the policy suggestions for the macro management of RMB internationalization. This chapter is mainly about the assumption of macro management for the process of RMB internationalization. It involves the measures of financial risk measurement, financial risk prevention, foreign exchange management, exchange rate policy selection, the shield and coordination of the internal and external economy, and the macro regulation and control of the government. In the end, based on the purpose of building a more perfect macro management model for RMB internationalization, some policy suggestions are provided for the government's relevant decision-making departments to promote and implement the strategy of RMB internationalization.
The conclusion of the third part is to conclude and summarize the main contents and core views of the full text, and make some forward-looking forecasts and prospects for the problems and possible future changes that will be faced in the process of RMB internationalization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822;F832.6;F224

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