本文選題：中國—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū) + 東盟�。� 參考：《南京財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：人民幣實際有效匯率是衡量人民幣與“一籃子”貨幣(通常包括：日本、美國、香港、臺灣省、英國、韓國、新加坡、瑞士、澳大利亞、加拿大、西班牙、法國、比利時、荷蘭、意大利等國家)的一個比率。有效匯率是一個非常重要的綜合性經(jīng)濟指標,因此通常被一個國家用來衡量該國貿(mào)易商品在國際市場上的競爭力和該國貨幣對外價值與其相對購買力。 人類文明發(fā)展到某一階段時必然會產(chǎn)生邊境貿(mào)易,長期以來的實踐證明,邊境貿(mào)易的發(fā)展對國與國之間的經(jīng)濟起到了重要的推動作用。根據(jù)2002年11月在柬埔寨舉行的中國與東盟(10+1)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)會議上各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)共同簽署的《中國—東盟全面經(jīng)濟合作框架協(xié)議》的協(xié)議,中國—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)于2010年建成。自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立可以使中國與東盟各國相互取消或減免關(guān)稅,成員國的廠商可以自由地輸出和輸入自己的商品,使商品真正實現(xiàn)了自由貿(mào)易。 廣西是中國—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)發(fā)展的核心地區(qū),但也還是一個比較貧困的地區(qū)。自古以來廣西與各個東盟國家都有邊境貿(mào)易往來,尤其是廣西與越南、緬甸和泰國等國家在農(nóng)業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)上合作更是頻繁。廣西與東盟各國有著天然的地理聯(lián)系,無論是從陸地還是海上來看,廣西與東盟都有密切的聯(lián)系,廣西首府南寧更是成為中國—東盟貿(mào)易博覽會的常設(shè)會址。近年來人民幣匯率節(jié)節(jié)高升,對廣西與東盟貿(mào)易進出口有一定的影響,因為人民幣匯率波動,東盟國貨幣與人民幣的相對匯率也會變動。本文通過對人民幣實際有效匯率與廣西和東盟進出口貿(mào)易的關(guān)系進行實證分析,結(jié)果證明人民幣實際有效匯率與廣西對東盟的進口和出口都不存在協(xié)整關(guān)系。另外,通過對三者進行差分平穩(wěn)化分析發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣實際有效匯率波動在短期對廣西—東盟出口波動有影響,且存在因果決定關(guān)系,但影響效果不明顯。人民幣實際有效匯率波動在短期與廣西—東盟的進口波動存在線性關(guān)系,但不存在因果決定關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:The real effective exchange rate of the RMB is a measure of the RMB and a "basket" of currencies (usually including Japan, the United States, Hong Kong, Taiwan Province, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Singapore, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, Spain, France, Belgium, A ratio for the Netherlands, Italy, etc. The effective exchange rate is a very important comprehensive economic indicator, so it is usually used by a country to measure the competitiveness of its trade goods in the international market and the external value of the country's currency and its relative purchasing power. The development of human civilization to a certain stage will inevitably produce border trade. The development of border trade has played an important role in promoting the economy between countries. The China-ASEAN Free Trade area (CAFTA) was established in 2010 in accordance with the Agreement on the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between China and ASEAN, which was signed by the leaders of all countries at the China-ASEAN leadership meeting held in Cambodia in November 2002. The establishment of free trade zone can make China and ASEAN countries cancel or reduce tariffs, and the manufacturers of member countries can export and import their own goods freely, so that the goods can realize free trade. Guangxi is the core of the development of China-ASEAN Free Trade area, but also a relatively poor region. Since ancient times, Guangxi has had border trade with all ASEAN countries, especially with Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand and other countries. Guangxi and ASEAN countries have natural geographical ties, both on land and sea, Guangxi and ASEAN have close ties, Guangxi capital Nanning has become the permanent site of China-ASEAN Trade Fair. The rise of the RMB exchange rate in recent years has a certain impact on the import and export of trade between Guangxi and ASEAN, because the RMB exchange rate fluctuates, and the relative exchange rate of the ASEAN currency and RMB will also change. Through the empirical analysis of the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export trade between Guangxi and ASEAN, the results show that there is no cointegration relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export of Guangxi to ASEAN. In addition, it is found that the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has an impact on the fluctuation of Guangxi-ASEAN export in the short term, and there is a causal relationship, but the effect is not obvious. There is a linear relationship between the fluctuation of RMB real effective exchange rate in the short term and the fluctuation of Guangxi-ASEAN import, but there is no causal relationship.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.8

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 馮濤;;貿(mào)易自由化與勞工標準全球化[J];比較法研究;2006年01期

2 曹衛(wèi)平;20世紀后半期東盟國家與中國的關(guān)系[J];湖南文理學院學報(社會科學版);2004年06期

3 史智宇;出口相似度與貿(mào)易競爭:中國與東盟的比較研究[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟;2003年09期

4 陳柳欽;中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)框架下的廣西經(jīng)貿(mào)發(fā)展[J];重慶工商大學學報.西部論壇;2004年03期

5 王珂;淺析中國出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)升級[J];長沙航空職業(yè)技術(shù)學院學報;2005年01期

6 湯海燕,史智宇,周甫軍;影響中國與東盟產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易發(fā)展因素解析[J];當代財經(jīng);2003年12期

7 張?zhí)N嶺;東亞合作與中國—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建設(shè)[J];當代亞太;2002年01期

8 呂玲麗;廣西與東盟國家次區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)合作的現(xiàn)狀及措施[J];東南亞縱橫;2004年12期

9 時雷,劉哲,龔勝華;廣西與東盟貿(mào)易和廣西GDP增長的相關(guān)性分析[J];東南亞縱橫;2005年08期

10 劉佳;中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)與廣西第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展[J];東南亞縱橫;2005年10期

，

本文編號：2013230