本文選題：非對稱國際貨幣體系 + 人民幣國際化　； 參考：《南開大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)前國際貨幣體系最主要的特征是：主要發(fā)展中國家選擇固定或者有管理浮動匯率制度,而發(fā)達(dá)國家選擇了自由浮動匯率制度；相對于發(fā)達(dá)國家發(fā)展中國家匯率是貶值的；發(fā)展中國家資本項(xiàng)目通常存在一定程度的管制,而發(fā)達(dá)國家資本項(xiàng)目大多是自由開放的；另外,發(fā)展中國家傾向于積累外匯儲備。理論界將該體系稱之為“復(fù)活的布雷頓森林體系”或“布雷頓森林II體系”。 “非對稱性”是當(dāng)前國際貨幣體系的根本屬性,也是布雷頓森林II體系的主要成因,所謂的國際貨幣體系“非對稱性”是指發(fā)展中國家貨幣為非國際貨幣,發(fā)達(dá)國家貨幣通常為國際貨幣,美元占據(jù)霸權(quán)地位。國際貨幣體系“非對稱性”最直接的結(jié)果是“非公平性”,相對于發(fā)行國際貨幣的發(fā)達(dá)國家,發(fā)行非國際貨幣的發(fā)展中國家面臨著更多的成本和風(fēng)險,如非可替代性戰(zhàn)略資源價格沖擊風(fēng)險、貨幣危機(jī)風(fēng)險、對外債務(wù)危機(jī)風(fēng)險等等。 為了防范此類風(fēng)險、維護(hù)本國經(jīng)濟(jì)安全和促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,發(fā)展中國家對本國匯率進(jìn)行適當(dāng)?shù)墓芾硎潜匾沂呛侠淼?是應(yīng)對非對稱、非公平國際貨幣體系的必然選擇。進(jìn)行必要的匯率管理應(yīng)該依托于兩大目標(biāo)支柱：一是出口導(dǎo)向消化本國剩余勞動力,二是防范貨幣非國際化所引致的國際風(fēng)險。這兩大目標(biāo)并行不悖,他們共同要求發(fā)展中國家匯率不能完全自由浮動,且需要一定程度的貶值,以刺激出口,維持順差,積累適當(dāng)?shù)耐鈪R儲備。外匯儲備是發(fā)展中國家貨幣非國際化的必要替代和補(bǔ)充。我們稱這樣一種匯率管理戰(zhàn)略為對外“弱勢貨幣戰(zhàn)略”。 當(dāng)然,固定或有管理浮動匯率制度存在一定的缺陷,對中國這樣的大國而言,最佳戰(zhàn)略應(yīng)該是在防范風(fēng)險的前提下推動人民幣國際化,即采取所謂的“對外強(qiáng)勢貨幣戰(zhàn)略”。目前人民幣國際化主要障礙在于資本項(xiàng)目開放風(fēng)險,文章提出通過所謂的“國債戰(zhàn)略”,即在資本項(xiàng)目適度管制條件下在離岸人民幣金融市場大量發(fā)行人民幣計(jì)價債券的方式來推動人民幣國際化,這不僅能夠有效地推動人民幣國際化,還能夠有效地規(guī)避和管控人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中的風(fēng)險。
[Abstract]:The main characteristics of the current international monetary system are as follows: the main developing countries choose the fixed or managed floating exchange rate system, while the developed countries choose the free floating exchange rate system; Capital accounts in developing countries are generally subject to a certain degree of regulation, while capital accounts in developed countries are mostly free and open; in addition, developing countries tend to accumulate foreign exchange reserves. The theorists call this system "the resurrected Bretton Woods system" or "Bretton Woods II system". "asymmetry" is the fundamental attribute of the current international monetary system and the main cause of the Bretton Woods II system. The so-called "asymmetry" of the international monetary system means that the currencies of developing countries are non-international currencies. The currencies of developed countries are usually international currencies, and the dollar occupies a hegemonic position. The most direct result of the "asymmetry" of the international monetary system is "unfairness". Compared with the developed countries that issue the international currency, the developing countries that issue the non-international currency face more costs and risks. Such as alternative strategic resource price impact risk, currency crisis risk, external debt crisis risk and so on. In order to prevent this kind of risk, maintain the national economic security and promote economic growth, it is necessary and reasonable for developing countries to manage their exchange rate properly, and it is an inevitable choice to deal with the asymmetric and unfair international monetary system. The necessary exchange rate management should be based on two pillars: one is the export orientation to digest the surplus labor force, the other is to guard against the international risk caused by the non-internationalization of currency. They demand that the exchange rates of developing countries should not be completely free to float, and a certain degree of depreciation is needed to stimulate exports, maintain surplus, and accumulate appropriate foreign exchange reserves. The foreign exchange reserve is the developing country currency non-internationalization necessary substitution and the supplement. We call such an exchange rate management strategy an external "weak currency strategy". Of course, there are some defects in the fixed or floating exchange rate system. For a big country like China, the best strategy should be to promote the internationalization of RMB on the premise of guarding against risks, that is, to adopt the so-called "foreign strong currency strategy". At present, the main obstacle to the internationalization of the RMB is the risk of opening up the capital account. The article proposes to adopt the so-called "national debt strategy". That is, under the condition of moderate capital account control, the way in which a large number of renminbi-denominated bonds are issued in the offshore RMB financial market to promote the internationalization of the renminbi, this can not only effectively promote the internationalization of the renminbi, It can also effectively avoid and control the risks in the process of RMB internationalization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南開大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F821;F832.6

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