本文選題：人民幣匯率 + 消費(fèi)者價格��； 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自2005年的匯率制度改革以來,人民幣已有不小幅度的升值。由于我國持續(xù)的貿(mào)易順差和巨額的外匯儲備,人民幣仍面臨著進(jìn)一步升值的壓力。人民幣升值對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響成為熱點(diǎn)話題,人民幣匯率與我國物價水平的關(guān)系更是成為焦點(diǎn)。我國的貨幣政策目標(biāo)是保持幣值穩(wěn)定,并以此促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。由此可見,抑制通貨膨脹是我國實(shí)施貨幣政策的基本立足點(diǎn),人民幣對內(nèi)價值的穩(wěn)定是促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的基礎(chǔ)。眾多學(xué)者的研究均表明一國匯率會對其物價水平產(chǎn)生影響,通常貨幣升值可以起到抑制國內(nèi)物價的作用,但人民幣匯率和我國物價水平處于匯率升值和物價上漲并存的失衡狀態(tài)。為了更好地實(shí)現(xiàn)貨幣政策的目標(biāo),研究人民幣匯率的傳遞效應(yīng)以及人民幣匯率的傳遞機(jī)制具有理論和實(shí)踐意義。 本文首先梳理了國內(nèi)外有關(guān)匯率傳遞的文獻(xiàn)；其次闡述了匯率對物價的傳遞機(jī)制,并分析了人民幣匯率的傳遞機(jī)制；隨后回顧了1994-2012年間人民幣名義有效匯率和我國消費(fèi)者價格指數(shù)的變動情況,初步判斷了人民幣匯率與我國物價的關(guān)系；接著截取2001-2012年的月度數(shù)據(jù),先后采用平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和脈沖響應(yīng),實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了人民幣匯率與我國物價水平的長期均衡關(guān)系,考察了不同傳遞機(jī)制下的人民幣匯率傳遞效應(yīng)。結(jié)果表明,人民幣升值會推動我國物價上漲,人民幣匯率通過貨幣供應(yīng)機(jī)制對國內(nèi)物價的傳遞效應(yīng)更強(qiáng),貨幣增長是導(dǎo)致我國物價上漲的主要原因。最后根據(jù)實(shí)證的結(jié)果,本文認(rèn)為人民幣升值不能有效地抑制通貨膨脹,應(yīng)依靠貨幣政策治理通貨膨脹,同時應(yīng)強(qiáng)化內(nèi)需對經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動作用并減少熱錢對經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of the exchange rate system in 2005, the RMB has not been appreciating significantly. Because of our country's continuous trade surplus and huge foreign exchange reserves, the RMB still faces the pressure of further appreciation. The impact of the appreciation of RMB on our economy has become a hot topic, and the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's price level is more focused. The objective of China's monetary policy is to keep the value of currency stable and to promote economic growth. Thus, the basic foothold of monetary policy is to restrain inflation, and the stability of the RMB's internal value is the basis for promoting economic growth. The constant currency appreciation can play a role in restraining domestic prices, but the exchange rate of RMB and the price level of our country are in the unbalance state of the coexistence of exchange rate appreciation and price rise. In order to achieve the goal of monetary policy better, it is of theoretical and practical significance to study the transfer effect of the RMB exchange rate and the exchange mechanism of the RMB exchange rate.
This paper first combs the literature about exchange rate transfer at home and abroad, then expounds the transfer mechanism of exchange rate to price, and analyses the transfer mechanism of RMB exchange rate, and then reviews the changes of nominal effective exchange rate of RMB and China's consumer price index in the past 1994-2012 years, and preliminarily judges the exchange rate of RMB and China's price. Then the monthly data of 2001-2012 years were intercepted, and the stability test, Grainger causality test, cointegration test and impulse response were adopted. The long-term equilibrium relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's price level was tested, and the exchange effect of RMB exchange rate under different transmission mechanisms was examined. The results showed that the appreciation of RMB would be pushed. As the price rises in China, the exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate through the money supply mechanism is stronger. The growth of the currency is the main cause of the price rise in China. Finally, according to the empirical results, this paper holds that the appreciation of RMB can not effectively suppress inflation. It should rely on monetary policy to control inflation and should be strengthened. Domestic demand has a stimulating effect on the economy and reduces the impact of hot money on the economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F726

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本文編號：1942524