發(fā)布時間：2018-05-21 17:31

  本文選題：人民幣 + 升值��； 參考：《東北師范大學》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：二十世紀九十年代，經(jīng)濟全球化和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化的浪潮席卷全球。借助信息技術(shù)的高速發(fā)展，國際貿(mào)易、跨國投資和國際金融得到了迅猛發(fā)展，世界經(jīng)濟呈現(xiàn)出空前緊密聯(lián)系的發(fā)展趨勢。作為新興市場經(jīng)濟體、一個發(fā)展中的大國，中國成為經(jīng)濟全球化的深度參與者。中國經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)快速增長，并呈現(xiàn)出與全球經(jīng)濟相互依賴日益緊密的趨勢已成為不爭的事實。中國與世界經(jīng)濟的密切聯(lián)系主要體現(xiàn)在龐大的國際貿(mào)易規(guī)模和由此產(chǎn)生且獨立運行的巨額國際資本流動兩個方面。其中，國際直接投資扮演著越來越重要的角色。2002年,中央提出“走出去”戰(zhàn)略,鼓勵有比較優(yōu)勢的各類所有制企業(yè)開展對外直接投資,中國的對外直接投資規(guī)模開始迅速增長。到2010年底,中國對外直接投資存量達到了3172.1億美元,是2005年底同一指標的5.5倍；而2010年中國對外直接投資凈額創(chuàng)下688.1億美元的歷史最高值，是“十五”期間中國對外直接投資總額的2.3倍。從發(fā)展前景來看，中國在經(jīng)過長期大幅度引進外國直接投資的鼎盛期之后,將逐漸迎來對外直接投資的高潮。 自2005年7月21日，中國實行新的匯率制度以來，人民幣匯率上下波動的區(qū)間顯著擴大，人民幣升值的趨勢愈發(fā)明朗：從2006年至2011年，人民幣兌美元全年累計升值幅度分別為6.80%、6.88%、3.35%、0.12%、3.0%和5.11%，雖然從2008年7月以后，人民幣升值的幅度明顯減小，然而由于種種原因，人民幣升值的壓力卻是長期存在的。在開放經(jīng)濟中，匯率作為兩國貨幣之間的比價，決定國內(nèi)外商品和生產(chǎn)要素的相對價格，從而決定了國際直接投資的流向和規(guī)模，成為影響國際直接投資的重要因素。然而，傳統(tǒng)的國際投資理論很少從金融角度分析�？v觀國內(nèi)外學者的研究，有的從微觀角度考察跨國公司向外擴張的原因、投資區(qū)位以及投資進入方式等內(nèi)容（如壟斷優(yōu)勢理論、內(nèi)部化理論、國際生產(chǎn)折衷論和寡占反應(yīng)論），有的從中觀層面探索跨國公司投資帶來的產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級等內(nèi)容（如產(chǎn)品生命周期論、邊際產(chǎn)業(yè)擴散論），還有一些宏觀層面的研究，包括波特的國家競爭優(yōu)勢理論等，這些理論多是針對發(fā)達資本主義國家在特定歷史階段進行研究的產(chǎn)物，而關(guān)于匯率的變動對國際直接投資影響的研究卻始終沒有形成系統(tǒng)的結(jié)論和完整的理論體系。對于發(fā)展中國家，，其特定的國際政治地位和特殊的內(nèi)部政治、經(jīng)濟體制，決定了其匯率形成機制及其變化對于一國對外直接投資的影響與作用機制不同于發(fā)達國家，而理論上關(guān)于這部分內(nèi)容的探討卻鮮見于文。 在這種特定的歷史背景下，關(guān)于人民幣升值和波動對中國對外直接投資影響的研究亟待展開。這些研究的結(jié)論將完善發(fā)展中國家的對外直接投資理論，推動國際直接投資理論不斷向前發(fā)展。在這個過程中，如何構(gòu)建一個統(tǒng)一的理論框架，將匯率水平的變化和匯率波動幅度對國際直接投資的影響形成系統(tǒng)的結(jié)論，從而形成基于匯率視角的國際直接投資理論的新學說，將成為未來一個階段國際直接投資理論研究的新任務(wù)。人民幣長期穩(wěn)定的小幅度升值及短期內(nèi)的階段性貶值，對于不同類型中國對外直接投資的規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)將產(chǎn)生哪些影響？人民幣升值對于中國對外直接投資影響的宏觀傳導機制是什么？在人民幣升值過程中產(chǎn)生的匯率波動怎樣影響中國企業(yè)的對外直接投資決策？鼓勵中國企業(yè)進行廣泛的對外直接投資能否緩解長期存在的人民幣升值壓力？在中國進一步推進“走出去”戰(zhàn)略的大背景下，中國企業(yè)該如何正確認識人民幣升值帶來的優(yōu)勢和弊端？這些正是本文研究的具體問題。 本文綜合運用規(guī)范分析、模型分析和實證分析的研究方法，主要結(jié)合國際金融學、國際投資學、西方經(jīng)濟學等學科的理論對于人民幣升值對中國對外直接投資規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)的影響及作用機理進行了系統(tǒng)研究。全文共分為六個主要部分，第一部分是匯率變動對國際直接投資影響的一般理論基礎(chǔ)。第一章首先介紹了匯率變動的基礎(chǔ)理論—匯率決定與波動理論體系，接下來介紹了匯率變動對國際直接投資影響的主要理論：相對成本論、相對財富論、風險規(guī)避論和實際期權(quán)論，上述四個理論為本文的數(shù)學模型奠定了重要的思想方法基礎(chǔ)。第二部分是匯率變動對國際直接投資影響的研究文獻綜述。第二章，作者按照匯率變動對國際直接投資影響研究的演進脈絡(luò)，對國外研究文獻的經(jīng)典方法、理論流派進行了歸納和總結(jié)，并對相關(guān)理論和文獻進行評述；對于國內(nèi)的研究，詳細回顧了人民幣升值對中國對外直接投資影響的研究文獻綜述，并對該領(lǐng)域未來的發(fā)展方向進行展望。第三部分介紹了人民幣升值和中國對外直接投資的歷史沿革。第三章首先介紹了人民幣升值的歷程，繼而深入分析了人民幣升值的具體原因及持久性；接著對于中國對外直接投資活動的歷史、現(xiàn)狀及其特點進行了回顧。第四部分進行了人民幣升值對中國對外直接投資影響的理論分析。在數(shù)理模型分析部分，通過構(gòu)造匯率不確定條件下，跨國公司的最優(yōu)投資決策模型，本文詳細討論了人民幣預期升值和人民幣匯率波動幅度增大對于中國對外直接投資規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)的影響機制；在宏觀傳導機制分析部分，探討了人民幣升值對中國對外直接投資影響的利率傳導機制和價格傳導機制；在利弊分析部分，總結(jié)了人民幣預期升值對于中國對外直接投資帶來的有利和不利影響。第五部分是人民幣升值對中國對外直接投資影響的實證分析。第五章首先用面板數(shù)據(jù)的固定效應(yīng)模型分析了人民幣升值對中國對外直接投資規(guī)模的影響，接下來對人民幣升值對中國對外直接投資結(jié)構(gòu)的影響進行了經(jīng)驗分析，探討了人民幣升值對中國對外直接投資產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、區(qū)位結(jié)構(gòu)和投資主體結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。第六部分為人民幣升值對中國對外直接投資影響的規(guī)范分析。第六章探討了人民幣升值背景下，中國對外直接投資的對策建議，并分別從政府層面的對策和企業(yè)層面的對策進行了論證。 本文的模型分析表明：人民幣預期升值有利于中國開展成本導向型對外直接投資，而不利于中國進行市場導向型對外直接投資；人民幣預期升值對于勞動密集型對外直接投資的影響較大，而對于資本密集型對外直接投資的影響較��；人民幣預期升值會影響中國對外直接投資的結(jié)構(gòu)，而人民幣匯率的波動幅度對于對外直接投資的結(jié)構(gòu)無影響；人民幣匯率波動幅度增加，則成本導向型和市場導向型對外直接投資的規(guī)模都減小。人民幣升值通過利率傳導機制和價格傳導機制作用于中國的對外直接投資。本文的實證分析表明：人民幣預期升值、人民幣匯率的波動對于中國對外直接投資的規(guī)模有顯著影響：人民幣預期升值有利于中國對外直接投資規(guī)模的擴大，而人民幣匯率波動幅度的增加使中國對外直接投資的規(guī)模下降，現(xiàn)階段人民幣升值對于中國對外直接投資總規(guī)模的影響不顯著。中國目前的對外直接投資以成本導向型為主，而成本導向型直接投資和市場導向型直接投資的比例接近。人民幣升值使得流向亞洲和非洲的對外直接投資規(guī)模逐年增加；人民幣升值使采礦業(yè)和交通運輸業(yè)的對外直接投資總額明顯增加；人民幣升值預期使國有企業(yè)對外直接投資的比例下降，有限責任公司的對外直接投資比例上升。 在上述研究的基礎(chǔ)上，本文提出了以下對策建議：政府對于人民幣匯率形成機制的調(diào)節(jié)應(yīng)與“走出去”戰(zhàn)略協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展；合理利用人民幣升值帶來的低成本優(yōu)勢和相對財富優(yōu)勢，進行對外直接投資的產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇和區(qū)位布局；實行促進對外直接投資的財政金融優(yōu)惠政策；加強企業(yè)內(nèi)部的核心競爭力、合理利用人民幣升值帶來的相對財富優(yōu)勢，謹慎并穩(wěn)步開展中國企業(yè)的海外并購；利用人民幣升值的機遇，鼓勵民營企業(yè)、中小企業(yè)對外直接投資的集群發(fā)展模式等。
[Abstract]:In 1990s, the tide of economic globalization and regional economic integration swept the world. With the rapid development of information technology, international trade, transnational investment and international finance have developed rapidly. The world economy presents an unprecedented development trend of close ties. As a new market economy, a developing country, China becomes a big country. As a deep participant in economic globalization, China's sustained and rapid economic growth has become an indisputable fact of increasing interdependence with the global economy. The close relationship between China and the world economy is mainly reflected in the large scale of international trade and the huge flow of international capital from which it produces and operates independently. Two Among them, international direct investment plays a more and more important role in.2002. The Central Committee has put forward the "go out" strategy and encourage all kinds of ownership enterprises with comparative advantages to carry out foreign direct investment, and the scale of China's foreign direct investment has been growing rapidly. By the end of 2010, the stock of China's foreign direct investment reached 317 billion 210 million US dollars, It was 5.5 times that of the same target at the end of 2005, and the highest value of China's net foreign direct investment reached US $68 billion 810 million in 2010, which was 2.3 times the total amount of China's foreign direct investment during the "fifteen" period. From the perspective of development, China will gradually usher in the foreign direct investment after a long and large introduction of foreign direct investment. The high tide of investment.
Since July 21, 2005, since the implementation of the new exchange rate system in China, the range of the RMB exchange rate fluctuates significantly. The trend of RMB appreciation is becoming clearer. From 2006 to 2011, the cumulative appreciation of RMB against the dollar was 6.80%, 6.88%, 3.35%, 0.12%, 3% and 5.11% respectively, although the RMB has appreciated since July 2008. Because of various reasons, however, the pressure of the appreciation of the RMB exists for a long time. In the open economy, the exchange rate, as the price between the two currencies, determines the relative price of goods and production factors at home and abroad, thus determining the flow and scale of the international direct investment and becoming an important factor affecting the international direct investment. However, the traditional international investment theory is rarely analyzed from the financial perspective. Looking at the domestic and foreign scholars' research, some of the reasons for the outward expansion of MNCs, the investment location and the way of investment entry (such as the monopoly advantage theory, the internalization theory, the inter national production compromise theory and the oligopoly reactivity theory), and some from the middle level To explore the industrial transfer and the upgrading of the industrial structure, such as the product life cycle theory, the marginal industry diffusion theory, and some macro level studies, including Potter's theory of national competitive advantage, and so on. The study on the impact of exchange rate changes on international direct investment has never formed a systematic conclusion and a complete theoretical system. For developing countries, their specific international political status and special internal politics and economic system determine the influence and effect of their exchange rate formation mechanism and its changes on a country's foreign direct investment. The system is different from the developed countries, but the theoretical discussion on this part is rarely seen in literature.
Under this specific historical background, the research on the impact of RMB appreciation and volatility on China's foreign direct investment is urgent. The conclusions of these studies will improve the foreign direct investment theory of developing countries and promote the continuous development of the theory of international direct investment. In this process, how to build a unified theoretical framework The change of exchange rate and the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on international direct investment will form a systematic conclusion, thus forming a new theory of international direct investment theory based on the exchange rate perspective. It will become a new task in the study of the theory of international direct investment in the future. The small amplitude appreciation of the long-term stability of RMB and the period in the short term What are the effects of sexual devaluation on the size and structure of different types of FDI in China? What is the macro transmission mechanism of the impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign direct investment? How does the exchange rate fluctuations in the process of RMB appreciation affect Chinese enterprises' foreign direct investment decisions? Encourage Chinese enterprises to do so Can a wide range of foreign direct investment relieve the pressure of RMB appreciation for a long time? In the context of further promoting the "going out" strategy in China, how should Chinese enterprises correctly understand the advantages and disadvantages of RMB appreciation? These are the specific problems in this paper.
This paper makes a systematic study of the influence and mechanism of RMB appreciation on the scale and structure of China's foreign direct investment, including the theories of normative analysis, model analysis and empirical analysis, which are mainly combined with the theories of international finance, international investment and western economics. The full text is divided into six main parts. Part one is the general theoretical basis of the impact of exchange rate changes on international direct investment. Chapter 1 first introduces the basic theory of exchange rate change, the exchange rate decision and the theory of volatility, and then introduces the main theories of the influence of exchange rate changes on International Direct Investment: relative cost theory, relative wealth theory, risk aversion theory and real option. The above four theories have laid an important ideological and method foundation for the mathematical model of this article. The second part is the literature review of the influence of exchange rate changes on international direct investment. The second chapter, the author according to the evolution of the influence of exchange rate changes to the international direct investment, the classical methods of foreign research literature and the theoretical schools. This paper summarizes and summarizes the related theories and literature, and reviews the literature review on the impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign direct investment in the domestic research, and looks forward to the future development direction of this field. The third part introduces the historical evolution of RMB appreciation and China's foreign direct investment. The three chapter first introduces the course of RMB appreciation, and then analyzes the specific reasons and persistence of RMB appreciation, and then reviews the history, current situation and characteristics of China's foreign direct investment activities. The fourth part has carried out the theoretical analysis of the influence of RMB appreciation to China's foreign direct investment. In the analysis part, by constructing the optimal investment decision model of MNCs under the uncertainty of the exchange rate, this paper discusses the influence mechanism of the RMB expectation appreciation and the increase of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the scale and structure of China's foreign direct investment. The interest rate transmission mechanism and price transmission mechanism influenced by foreign direct investment; in the analysis of advantages and disadvantages, it summarizes the favorable and unfavorable effects of the expected appreciation of RMB on China's foreign direct investment. The fifth part is the empirical analysis of the impact of the appreciation of RMB on China's foreign direct investment. The fifth chapter first uses panel data to fix it. The effect of RMB appreciation on the scale of China's foreign direct investment is analyzed by the fixed effect model. Then, the influence of RMB appreciation on China's foreign direct investment structure is analyzed, and the influence of RMB appreciation on the industrial structure, location structure and investment main structure of China's foreign direct investment is discussed. The sixth part is the human being. A normative analysis of the impact of the appreciation of the people's currency on China's foreign direct investment. The sixth chapter discusses the countermeasures and suggestions of China's foreign direct investment in the context of the appreciation of the RMB, and demonstrates the countermeasures from the government level and the enterprise level respectively.
The analysis of the model shows that the expected appreciation of RMB is beneficial for China to carry out cost oriented foreign direct investment, but not to China's market oriented foreign direct investment; the expected appreciation of RMB has great influence on labor intensive foreign direct investment, while the impact on capital intensive FDI is small. The expected appreciation of RMB will affect the structure of China's foreign direct investment, while the volatility of the RMB exchange rate has no effect on the structure of foreign direct investment; the increase of the fluctuation amplitude of the RMB exchange rate will reduce the scale of the cost oriented and market oriented foreign direct investment. The empirical analysis of this paper shows that the expected appreciation of RMB and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate have a significant impact on the scale of China's Foreign Direct Investment: the expected appreciation of RMB is beneficial to the expansion of the scale of China's foreign direct investment and the increase of the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate. The scale of China's foreign direct investment has declined. At present, the impact of RMB appreciation on the total size of China's foreign direct investment is not significant. China's current FDI is mainly cost oriented, while the proportion of the cost oriented direct direct investment and the market oriented direct investment is close. The appreciation of RMB has led to Asia and Africa. The scale of foreign direct investment has increased year by year; the appreciation of the RMB has greatly increased the total foreign direct investment of the mining industry and transportation industry; the expectation of the RMB appreciation has made the proportion of the foreign direct investment of the state-owned enterprises down, and the proportion of the foreign direct investment of the limited liability companies has risen.
On the basis of the above research, this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: the government should coordinate the development of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism with the "go out" strategy; make rational use of the low cost advantage and relative wealth advantage brought by the appreciation of RMB, carry out the industrial selection and location layout of the foreign direct investment; carry out the promotion of the policy. The financial and financial preferential policies of foreign direct investment; strengthen the core competitiveness inside the enterprise, make rational use of the relative wealth advantage brought by the appreciation of RMB, carefully and steadily carry out the overseas merger and acquisition of Chinese enterprises; use the opportunity of RMB appreciation to encourage the private enterprises and the cluster development model of foreign direct investment in small and medium enterprises.
【學位授予單位】：東北師范大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6

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