本文選題：上市銀行 + 高盈利　； 參考：《南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：根據(jù)2012年上市公司發(fā)布的半年報來看,盡管多數(shù)上市公司業(yè)績下滑,銀行業(yè)卻一枝獨秀,共實現(xiàn)凈利潤5452.29億元,同比增長18%。不過業(yè)績利好并未在資本市場上有所反映。2012年上半年,工商銀行的股價下跌了6.40%,建設(shè)銀行的股價下跌了6.67%,招商銀行的股價下跌了6.43%,華夏銀行的股價甚至下跌了14.84%。可以看出,銀行業(yè)出現(xiàn)了高盈利與低股價的現(xiàn)象。為什么銀行業(yè)高盈利卻低股價?這正是本文所要研究的問題。 不良貸款率是隱藏在銀行體系中的“定時炸彈”,一旦被觸發(fā),隨時會讓銀行業(yè)績大幅下滑。股票市場的價格很多時候就是投資者心理預(yù)期的反應(yīng)。本文通過整理各行業(yè)(共12個行業(yè)分類)2008-2011年的相關(guān)財務(wù)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù),從各行業(yè)尤其是鋼鐵業(yè)的還貸能力這個角度出發(fā),來研究銀行業(yè)預(yù)期的風(fēng)險。 首先,本文回顧了我國銀行業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程以及股票定價的相關(guān)理論—估值理論。根據(jù)估值理論,本文針對銀行業(yè)的低股價現(xiàn)象提出了兩大研究假設(shè)：一是銀行業(yè)盈利預(yù)期增長率放緩,二是銀行業(yè)預(yù)期不良貸款風(fēng)險上升。本文接著分析了銀行業(yè)高盈利的影響因素,并通過搜集整理了銀行業(yè)2008-2011年的營業(yè)收入增長率數(shù)據(jù),發(fā)現(xiàn)銀行業(yè)預(yù)期增長率放緩,從而驗證了假設(shè)1。 然后,本文搜集整理了各行業(yè)的相關(guān)財務(wù)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù),通過EXCEL等統(tǒng)計工具的處理,發(fā)現(xiàn)各行業(yè)的盈利能力以及長期償債能力水平下降,從而使得其還貸能力下降,增加了銀行業(yè)貸款的風(fēng)險,從而驗證了假設(shè)2。 最后,本文選取鋼鐵業(yè)為代表來分析銀行預(yù)期不良貸款風(fēng)險。因為鋼鐵業(yè)是資金密集型行業(yè),有著巨額銀行貸款。本部分分析了鋼鐵業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀以及盈利能力、長期償債能力等財務(wù)指標(biāo),發(fā)現(xiàn)鋼鐵業(yè)整體的償債能力和盈利能力都在下降,可以預(yù)期鋼鐵業(yè)的不良貸款將大幅上升,增加了上市銀行的貸款風(fēng)險,銀行業(yè)預(yù)期不良貸款水平有上升的趨勢,從而進一步驗證了假設(shè)2。
[Abstract]:Despite the decline in earnings for most listed companies, the banking sector is outperforming, with a combined net profit of 545.229 billion yuan, up 18.5 billion yuan, according to the semi-annual results released by listed companies in 2012. But the positive results are not reflected in the capital markets. ICBC's share price fell 6.40% in the first half of 2012, CCB's fell 6.67%, China Merchants' shares fell 6.43% and Huaxia's even fell 14.84%. Can see, the banking industry appeared high profit and the phenomenon of low stock price. Why do banks have high profits but low stock prices? This is precisely the question that this text wants to study. The non-performing loan ratio is a time bomb hidden in the banking system, which, if triggered, can cause a sharp decline in bank performance at any time. Stock market prices are often reactions to investors' psychological expectations. This paper studies the expected risks of banking industry from the perspective of the ability to repay loans in all industries, especially the steel industry, by collating the relevant financial index data from 2008 to 2011 in 12 industries (altogether 12 industries classified). First of all, this paper reviews the development of China's banking industry and the stock pricing theory-valuation theory. According to the valuation theory, this paper puts forward two hypotheses in view of the low stock price phenomenon of the banking industry: one is that the expected growth rate of banking profit is slowing down, the other is the rise of the expected risk of non-performing loans in the banking sector. This paper then analyzes the factors influencing the banking industry's high profitability, and by collecting and collating the data of the banking revenue growth rate in 2008-2011, it finds that the expected growth rate of the banking industry is slowing down, thus validating the hypothesis 1. Then, this paper collects and collates the relevant financial index data of various industries, through the processing of EXCEL and other statistical tools, we find that the profitability and long-term solvency level of each industry has decreased, thus making its ability to repay loans decline. Increases the risk of bank loans, thus validating hypothesis 2. 5. Finally, this paper chooses the steel industry as the representative to analyze the expected non-performing loan risk. Because the steel industry is a capital-intensive industry, with huge bank loans. This part analyzes the current situation of the steel industry, profitability, long-term solvency and other financial indicators. It is found that the overall solvency and profitability of the steel industry are declining, and it can be expected that the non-performing loans of the steel industry will rise substantially. It increases the loan risk of listed banks, and the expected non-performing loan level of the banking industry tends to rise, which further verifies the assumption of 2. 5%.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.33;F830.42

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