本文選題：老撾 + 金融發(fā)展�。� 參考：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：金融與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系始終是理論研究和實(shí)證分析的熱點(diǎn)問題。金融作為影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要因素之一,其重要性早已為廣大學(xué)者所公認(rèn)。特別是近年來西方學(xué)者對金融與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的研究不再局限于發(fā)達(dá)國家,更廣泛地推廣到了發(fā)展中國家。經(jīng)過不斷的實(shí)踐檢驗(yàn),該理論顯現(xiàn)出對發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融建設(shè)有非常重要的指導(dǎo)作用。因此,將西方日益成熟、完善的理論和老撾的實(shí)際情況相結(jié)合,考察老撾金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系,是老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)的迫切需要,同時也為老撾金融體系的發(fā)展、金融結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整提供理論依據(jù)�；诖�,選擇金融發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響這一課題,并從金融學(xué)的視角系統(tǒng)探討和研究這一問題,具有重要的理論價值和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先對金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的定義進(jìn)行了界定,并且概括性地闡述了金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的國內(nèi)外研究,明晰了其中的觀點(diǎn),指出了不足;而且從提供支付系統(tǒng)、影響儲蓄率、提高資本配置效率、導(dǎo)致更高比例的儲蓄轉(zhuǎn)化為投資等四個方面分析了金融發(fā)展如何作用于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,同時進(jìn)行了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長如何作用于金融發(fā)展的分析,且對金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長如何相互作用進(jìn)行了說明。 其次,基于金融發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作用的傳導(dǎo)路徑和理論分析框架,關(guān)于金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系之間強(qiáng)調(diào)有許多研究理論文獻(xiàn),本章將首先介紹了古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論,接著是現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論、金融發(fā)展理論的主要理論成果,在金融發(fā)展理論中介紹了金融結(jié)構(gòu)論、金融抑制論、金融功能的主要理論成果。然而對金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用機(jī)制分析,探討了影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的金融要素,最后對金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)理論進(jìn)行了梳理與總結(jié),從而為本文進(jìn)一步的深入研究提供理論基礎(chǔ)。 其三,從金融機(jī)構(gòu)信貸發(fā)展概況、股票市場發(fā)展概況和保險(xiǎn)市場發(fā)展概況等三個角度闡述了老撾金融發(fā)展的演變過程,同樣也介紹了老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的演變過程,并對金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系作出基本判斷,從而得到了老撾金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系的基本結(jié)論。 其四,在研究的指標(biāo)設(shè)計(jì)及實(shí)證方法。首先對影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的金融要素進(jìn)行歸類分析,其次在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了反映各要素的指標(biāo)體系；再次對金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長指標(biāo)的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行定義；最后就金融發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響程度的實(shí)證方法作一選擇,金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的假設(shè)及建立模型,從而為后面兩章.的實(shí)證研究打下基礎(chǔ)。 其五,在實(shí)證研究部分本文研究全國的金融發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用時,選取金融發(fā)展規(guī)模、金融發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)、金融中介效率、外貿(mào)和實(shí)際利率,將相關(guān)變量進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整分析、構(gòu)建向量誤差修正模型,運(yùn)用多元線性回歸來研究各金融變量對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響力度和作用方向。 其六,在研究區(qū)域的金融發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用時,選取金融發(fā)展規(guī)模、金融發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)、金融中介效率、就業(yè)人數(shù)增長率和投資總額的比例,將相關(guān)變量在面板數(shù)據(jù)模型上進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整分析和格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)。 從本文考察樣本所反映的長期穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系來看,老撾金融發(fā)展規(guī)模、金融發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)、金融發(fā)展中介效率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間存在著長期穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系我們可以得出個層面全國和地區(qū)的如下結(jié)論： (1)從老撾全國金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長歷史和現(xiàn)狀來看,自從改革開放以后,伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,老撾金融業(yè)整體發(fā)展水平也得到改善和提高,特別是金融規(guī)模和金融結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長保持著良好的同步性向前擴(kuò)大和提高發(fā)展。而這種現(xiàn)象的存在也是我們進(jìn)行金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長相互影響力研究的中前提之一。 (2)從老撾金融規(guī)模的長期來看,自改革開放以來,老撾金融資產(chǎn)總量不斷地?cái)U(kuò)大并且它的擴(kuò)張對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長起到應(yīng)有的促進(jìn)作用。實(shí)際上各種金融資產(chǎn)在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中所占的比例越大說明他們在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位越來越重要,但并不意味著一國金融發(fā)展的質(zhì)量達(dá)到了相應(yīng)的水平。如果金融資產(chǎn)擴(kuò)張建立在高質(zhì)量、高效率的基礎(chǔ)上,那么這種擴(kuò)張當(dāng)然會對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長起到促進(jìn)作用,否則,這種擴(kuò)張隱含著很大的危險(xiǎn)。 (3)從老撾全國金融結(jié)構(gòu)變化的角度來看,最近幾年老撾中央銀行占銀行業(yè)總貸款的比例呈現(xiàn)不斷下降的趨勢,體現(xiàn)出了金融結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化,銀行業(yè)之間開始更多的有序競爭,無疑將有利于發(fā)揮金融對經(jīng)濟(jì)的正面作用。但是我們同樣發(fā)現(xiàn)2005年之后,一定程度上體現(xiàn)金融中介效率的銀行對非國有銀行對非國有企業(yè)貸款占銀行業(yè)總貸款的比例份額卻出現(xiàn)下降特征,這些指的標(biāo)變化很好地說明了銀行貸款過程中的“所有制歧視”現(xiàn)象依然廣泛存在,這無疑不利于老撾中小企業(yè)的發(fā)展和擴(kuò)大。 (4)從老撾金融中介效率來看,長期以來老撾金融中介效率不斷地得到提高和改善,老撾的金融體系仍是以銀行為主導(dǎo)的金融體系,銀行在整個金融體系中扮演著最為重要的角色,也是目前老撾最重要的金融中介機(jī)構(gòu)。金融中介效率的提高,表現(xiàn)為將更多的儲蓄存款轉(zhuǎn)化為投入到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)中去,但由于存在存款創(chuàng)造機(jī)制,金融中介效率沒有促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是因?yàn)樵趪猩虡I(yè)銀行占主導(dǎo)的金融市場中,效率問題并沒有得到足夠的重視和改善,現(xiàn)有的市場金融市場缺乏多層次,多樣化的產(chǎn)品與服務(wù),難以滿足需求,也無法促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。進(jìn)一步分析可發(fā)現(xiàn),老撾金融系統(tǒng)存貸比率在1987-2008年期間一直下降,然后逐漸有所上升。這主要源于金融機(jī)構(gòu)的信貸投放能力受到制約。一方面,國有商業(yè)銀行和股份制商業(yè)銀行按照效益大最化的原則同時兼顧到安全性,實(shí)行一級法人管理體制,存有大量資金。另一方面,老撾很多信用擔(dān)保機(jī)構(gòu)因發(fā)展規(guī)模小和擔(dān)保能力較弱,在緩解中小企業(yè)融資方面的作用很有限。因此導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對金融效率提高的作用并不明顯。 (5)從老撾各地區(qū)統(tǒng)計(jì)描述和面板數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證分析來看,老撾四個地區(qū)金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長水平都存在差異很大,經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融比較發(fā)達(dá)都集中在老撾中部和首都萬象,這是老撾各地區(qū)間存在較大的差異和不平衡現(xiàn)象問題。通過對金融結(jié)構(gòu)、金融規(guī)模和金融中介效率的考察,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)四個大地區(qū)在金融存款、金融貸款等方面表現(xiàn)比較為一致的變化趨勢。在絕對規(guī)模上,萬象首都和中部在上述方面都占絕對優(yōu)勢,但南部、北部地區(qū)在近幾年的增長速度上卻有明顯的追趕趨勢,甚至某一些指標(biāo)的速度上還跟首都萬象和中部差不多。在金融資產(chǎn)使用效率方面,中部地區(qū)在四個地區(qū)中最高的,萬象首都地區(qū)次之,南部和北部最低,由此可見,各個地區(qū)金融資產(chǎn)使用效率情況與金融結(jié)構(gòu)規(guī)模關(guān)聯(lián)性很大,且與地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況相關(guān)性也很強(qiáng)。 最后本文對整個研究進(jìn)行了總結(jié)并針對上述分析結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的具有可行性的政策性建議,然后對本文研究不足之處提出了展望。
[Abstract]:The relationship between financial and economic growth has always been a hot issue in theoretical and empirical analysis. As one of the important factors affecting economic growth, the importance of finance has long been recognized by many scholars. Especially in recent years, the research on the relationship between financial and economic growth by western scholars is no longer limited to the developed countries, and has been widely spread to the developed countries. The developing countries have been proved to have a very important guiding role in the economic and financial construction of the developing countries. Therefore, it is an urgent need for the economic development of Laos to combine the mature theory of the West and the actual situation of Laos to examine the relationship between the Laos financial development and the economic growth. At the same time, it also provides a theoretical basis for the development of the Laos financial system and the adjustment of the financial structure. Based on this, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to choose the subject of the impact of financial development on economic growth and to study and study the problem systematically from the perspective of finance.
This paper first defines the definition of financial development and economic growth, and gives a general exposition of the domestic and foreign research on the relationship between financial development and economic growth, clarifies the views and points out the shortcomings; and it also leads to a higher proportion of savings into investment from the provision of payment system, the impact of the savings rate and the efficiency of capital allocation. In the four aspects, this paper analyzes how financial development plays a role in economic growth. At the same time, it makes an analysis of how economic growth plays a role in financial development and explains how financial development and economic growth interact with each other.
Secondly, based on the transmission path and theoretical analysis framework of the role of financial development on economic growth, there are many theoretical literature on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. This chapter will first introduce the theory of classical economic growth, then the theory of modern economic growth, the main theoretical results of the theory of financial development, and the financial development. In the theory of exhibition, the main theoretical results of financial structure, financial restraint and financial function are introduced. However, the mechanism of financial development and economic growth is analyzed, and the financial factors affecting economic growth are discussed. Finally, the macro economic theory of the relationship between financial development and economic growth is reviewed and summarized. The in-depth study of the step provides a theoretical basis.
Thirdly, it expounds the evolution process of Laos financial development from three angles, such as the general situation of financial institutions' credit development, the general situation of the stock market development and the general situation of the insurance market development. It also introduces the evolution process of the Laos economic growth, and makes a basic judgement on the relationship between the financial development and the economic growth, thus obtaining the Laos financial development and the development of the Laos. The basic conclusion of the relationship of economic growth.
Fourth, in the study of the index design and empirical methods. First, the financial factors affecting economic growth are classified and analyzed. Secondly, the index system which reflects the factors is built on the basis of this, and the data of financial development and economic growth indicators are defined again; finally, the empirical formula for the impact of gold development on economic growth is made. The law makes a choice, a hypothesis and a model for the relationship between financial development and economic growth, so as to lay the foundation for empirical research in the following two chapters.
Fifth, in the empirical research part, this paper studies the effect of financial development on economic growth in the country, selects the scale of financial development, the structure of financial development, the efficiency of financial intermediation, foreign trade and the actual interest rate, and carries out the unit root test, co integration analysis, the error correction model of vector, and the use of multiple linear return to study finance. The impact of variables on economic growth and the direction of action.
Six, in the study of the role of financial development for economic growth in the region, the scale of financial development, financial development structure, financial intermediary efficiency, employment growth rate and the proportion of total investment are selected, and the related variables are tested on the panel data model by unit root test, co integration analysis and Grainger causality test.
From the long-term stable relationship reflected by the samples, the scale of Laos financial development, the structure of financial development, the long-term stable relationship between the intermediary efficiency of financial development and the economic growth, we can draw the following conclusions at the level of the whole country and the region.
(1) from the history and current situation of the national financial development and economic growth in Laos, since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of the economy, the overall level of the development of the Laos financial industry has also been improved and improved, especially the development of the financial scale and financial structure and the growth of the economy. The existence of this phenomenon is also one of the prerequisites for our research on the mutual influence between financial development and economic growth.
(2) from the long term of Laos financial scale, since the reform and opening up, the total amount of financial assets in Laos has been expanding and its expansion has played an important role in promoting economic growth. In fact, the larger the proportion of financial assets in the national economy, the more important they are in the national economy, but it does not mean that the financial assets of Laos are more and more important. The quality of a country's financial development has reached a corresponding level. If the expansion of financial assets is based on high quality and high efficiency, this expansion will certainly contribute to economic growth. Otherwise, this expansion implies a great risk.
(3) from the point of view of the change of the Laos national financial structure, the proportion of the total loan of the Central Bank of Laos in recent years has been declining, reflecting the optimization of the financial structure and the beginning of more orderly competition among the banks, which will undoubtedly benefit the positive role of the finance to the economy. But we also find that 200 5 years later, the bank to a certain extent reflects the decline of non-state banks' proportion of non-state banks to non-state-owned enterprises in the proportion of the total loans to the bank industry, which shows that the "ownership discrimination" phenomenon still exists widely in the process of bank lending, which is no doubt beneficial to the small and medium Laos. The development and expansion of the enterprise.
(4) from the efficiency of Laos financial intermediation, the efficiency of Laos financial intermediaries has been improved and improved for a long time. The financial system of Laos is still a banking dominated financial system, and the bank plays the most important role in the whole financial system. It is also the most important financial intermediary in Laos. High, the performance is to convert more savings deposits into the real economy, but because of the existence of deposit creation mechanism, the efficiency of financial intermediation does not promote economic growth because in the financial market dominated by state-owned commercial banks, the problem of efficiency has not been sufficiently re viewed and improved, and the existing market financial market is lack of multiple layers. A variety of products and services are difficult to meet demand and can not promote economic growth. Further analysis can be found that the deposit and loan ratio of the Laos financial system has declined during the 1987-2008 years, and then gradually rises. This is mainly due to the constraints of the credit capacity of financial institutions. On the one hand, state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock merchants. On the other hand, many credit guarantee institutions in Laos have a limited role in alleviating small and medium sized enterprises' financing on the other hand, because of the small development scale and weak security ability. Therefore, the economic growth will increase the financial efficiency. The effect is not obvious.
(5) from the statistical and panel data analysis in Laos, the financial development and economic growth level of the four regions of Laos are very different. The economic and financial development is concentrated in the middle of Laos and the Vientiane in the capital. This is a big difference and imbalance between the Laos regions. In the study of financial scale and efficiency of financial intermediaries, this paper finds that the four large areas have a consistent trend of change in Financial deposits and financial loans. On the absolute scale, the capital and the central part of the world are all dominant in the above aspects, but in the south, the northern region has a clear chase trend in the growth rate in recent years. In terms of the efficiency of financial assets, the central region is the highest in the four regions, the Vientiane capital area is the second, the South and the north is the lowest. Thus, it can be seen that the use efficiency of financial assets in each region is very closely related to the scale of the financial structure, and with the region. The correlation of economic development is also very strong.
Finally, this paper makes a summary of the whole research and puts forward some feasible policy suggestions according to the results of the above analysis, and then puts forward the prospect of the shortcomings of this paper.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F833.34;F133.4

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 艾洪德,徐明圣,郭凱;我國區(qū)域金融發(fā)展與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的實(shí)證分析[J];財(cái)經(jīng)問題研究;2004年07期

2 李杰;步國榮;李堅(jiān);;海南金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系研究[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì);2012年05期

3 米建國,李建偉;我國金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的理論思考與實(shí)證分析[J];管理世界;2002年04期

4 郭勇;彭強(qiáng)華;畢家新;劉嬋嬋;陸峰;王海全;潘玉;黎桂林;汪文進(jìn);;老撾金融改革與發(fā)展研究[J];區(qū)域金融研究;2011年05期

5 馮聰;朱小梅;;湖北省金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究[J];湖北大學(xué)成人教育學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2012年01期

6 談儒勇;;影響金融發(fā)展效應(yīng)的行業(yè)特征[J];廣東金融學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2006年02期

7 韓廷春;金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長:基于中國的實(shí)證分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2001年03期

8 談儒勇;中國金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;1999年10期

9 馬瑞永;;中國區(qū)域金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的實(shí)證分析[J];金融教學(xué)與研究;2006年02期

10 周立,王子明;中國各地區(qū)金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長實(shí)證分析:1978-2000[J];金融研究;2002年10期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前5條

1 李發(fā)f;區(qū)域金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系研究[D];天津大學(xué);2010年

2 吳濤;遼寧實(shí)施區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的金融支持研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2012年

3 康未來;老撾農(nóng)村金融研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2012年

4 陳尊厚;中國金融發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響的統(tǒng)計(jì)研究[D];天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2008年

5 陶磊;能源要素與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型及實(shí)證研究[D];西南交通大學(xué);2008年

，

本文編號：1817859