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20世紀(jì)中后期美聯(lián)儲貨幣政策走向研究

發(fā)布時間:2018-04-26 11:40

  本文選題:美聯(lián)儲 + 貨幣政策 ; 參考:《魯東大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文


【摘要】:第二次世界大戰(zhàn)結(jié)束以后,美聯(lián)儲放棄了將利率釘在較低水平的做法,逐步調(diào)整其貨幣政策的目標(biāo)和手段。在與財政部簽訂1951年協(xié)議以后,特別是自威廉·馬丁擔(dān)任美聯(lián)儲主席開始,美聯(lián)儲掌握了貨幣政策的自主決策權(quán),開始獨立運用貨幣政策調(diào)控美國的宏觀經(jīng)濟。 在20世紀(jì)50年代初到60年代末這段時期,美聯(lián)儲實行了根據(jù)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的狀況調(diào)整貨幣供應(yīng)量的貨幣政策。鑒于美國經(jīng)濟在1945年到1969年處于整體上升的發(fā)展階段,因而這一時期美聯(lián)儲的貨幣政策基本以寬松的貨幣供應(yīng)為主。 但是,隨著美國經(jīng)濟的逐步升溫,美國社會的通貨膨脹率開始升高,同時美國勞動力市場的失業(yè)率又居高不下。如何使經(jīng)濟發(fā)展擺脫“滯脹”困境成為美聯(lián)儲面對的難題,因為美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)意識到要降低通貨膨脹需要以美國經(jīng)濟的降溫為代價,但經(jīng)濟的衰退會招致政府和民眾的不滿。因而在20世紀(jì)70年代大部分的時間里,執(zhí)掌美聯(lián)儲的阿瑟·伯恩斯選擇了容忍高通貨膨脹的做法。美聯(lián)儲繼續(xù)實行寬松貨幣政策的做法引起了學(xué)術(shù)界的爭論,貨幣主義者在這時提出了反通貨膨脹的觀點,并被1979年上任的美聯(lián)儲主席保羅·沃爾克所采用。 在以犧牲經(jīng)濟增長為代價的反通貨膨脹斗爭結(jié)束后,沃爾克帶領(lǐng)下的美聯(lián)儲成功地將美國經(jīng)濟從“滯脹”泥潭中拉了出來。鑒于貨幣供應(yīng)量的過快增長導(dǎo)致高通貨膨脹,,美聯(lián)儲逐漸放棄貨幣總量為政策指標(biāo),轉(zhuǎn)而使用利率作為貨幣政策的指標(biāo),同時慎重對待通貨膨脹的變化,努力將通貨膨脹率維持在一個適當(dāng)?shù)乃剑员苊饨?jīng)濟發(fā)展過熱或者適當(dāng)降低經(jīng)濟發(fā)展速度。 簡言之,美聯(lián)儲的貨幣政策在二戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)歷了幾個階段的變動,盡管每個階段政策的實施效果并不總是盡如人意,但總體而言還是取得了一定的效果。美聯(lián)儲作為調(diào)控美國宏觀經(jīng)濟的重要參與者,其職能已經(jīng)不再局限于為銀行業(yè)提供貸款支持,而是成為引導(dǎo)美國社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要力量。與此同時,學(xué)術(shù)界對于美聯(lián)儲貨幣政策的研究成果也越來越豐富,最為典型的要屬貨幣主義學(xué)派的興起。美聯(lián)儲對貨幣政策多次調(diào)整的結(jié)果提示我們,貨幣政策的研究者和決策者要重視貨幣政策對于社會經(jīng)濟的作用,認(rèn)真對待貨幣政策的制定和實施。
[Abstract]:After the end of World War II, the Fed abandoned the practice of pegging interest rates to lower levels and gradually adjusted its monetary policy objectives and instruments. After signing the 1951 agreement with the Treasury, especially since William Martin became chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Fed has taken control of monetary policy and started to use monetary policy independently to regulate the U.S. macro economy. During the period from the early 1950s to the late 1960s, the Federal Reserve adopted a monetary policy to adjust the money supply to the state of economic development. In view of the fact that the United States economy was in an overall rising stage of development from 1945 to 1969, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy during this period was dominated by loose money supply. But as the U.S. economy warmed up, inflation began to rise and unemployment in the U.S. labor market remained high. How to get the economy out of stagflation has become a challenge for the Fed, which has come to realize that lowering inflation costs a cooling economy, but a recession could lead to government and public discontent. So for much of the 1970s, Arthur Burns, who ran the Fed, chose to tolerate high inflation. The Fed's continued practice of loose monetary policy has sparked debate in academia, when monetarists put forward anti-inflation views and were adopted by Paul Volcker, Fed chairman, who took office in 1979. The Fed, led by Volcker, managed to pull the U.S. economy out of its "stagflation" quagmire after the end of a war against inflation at the expense of growth. In view of the high inflation caused by the excessive growth of the money supply, the Federal Reserve gradually abandoned the total amount of money as a policy indicator and instead used interest rates as an indicator of monetary policy, while taking a cautious view of the changes in inflation. Try to keep the inflation rate at an appropriate level to avoid overheating or slow down the economy. In short, the Fed's monetary policy has undergone several phases of change since the second world war, and while the effect of each phase has not always been satisfactory, overall it has achieved some results. As an important participant in the regulation of the U.S. macroeconomic, the Federal Reserve is no longer limited to providing loan support to the banking sector, but has become an important force to guide the development of the U.S. social economy. At the same time, the academic research on the Federal Reserve monetary policy has become more and more abundant, the most typical of which is the rise of monetarist school. The results of the Federal Reserve's repeated adjustment of monetary policy suggest that monetary policy researchers and policy makers should attach importance to the role of monetary policy in the social economy and take the formulation and implementation of monetary policy seriously.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:魯東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號】:F827.12;K712.54

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