本文選題：貨幣化 + 通貨膨脹��； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：貨幣化的概念經(jīng)常被提及，但是學(xué)術(shù)界至今并未給出明確定義。自貨幣體系脫離金本位后，金融資產(chǎn)價(jià)格迅速上漲，已接近上百倍，但這是名義的、貨幣的，并不代表真實(shí)資本的情況。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)在經(jīng)歷著依靠不斷增加貨幣來(lái)保證增長(zhǎng)，這里便是一個(gè)貨幣化的過(guò)程。 從中國(guó)的角度看，貨幣化指標(biāo)M0GDP、 M2GDP、 M2GDP一直在快速上漲，尤其是，在改革開(kāi)放初期僅為0.3，2010年已超過(guò)1.8，至今未出現(xiàn)回落的趨勢(shì)。如此長(zhǎng)時(shí)期的貨幣總量超過(guò)產(chǎn)出總量的增長(zhǎng)情形國(guó)際上少見(jiàn)，在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展史上也未曾有過(guò)。上世紀(jì)90年代，中國(guó)高貨幣化率的問(wèn)題曾經(jīng)引發(fā)熱議。Mckinnon (1993)曾經(jīng)預(yù)言如果中國(guó)政府繼續(xù)依賴于國(guó)有銀行體系的貸款，東歐型的通貨膨脹將無(wú)法避免；世界銀行(1996)的分析則表明，中國(guó)在改革初期通過(guò)企業(yè)和居民在銀行留存的大量?jī)?chǔ)蓄存款所形成的金融剩余，在實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí)避免了通貨膨脹。可是，隨著中國(guó)的貨幣余額越來(lái)越多，高增長(zhǎng)低通脹的情形將很難一直保持下去。盡管如此，中國(guó)的貨幣化率至今沒(méi)有減速的跡象，并且仍然沒(méi)有引發(fā)明顯的通貨膨脹，甚至在1997-2006年大約十年期間里，出現(xiàn)通貨膨脹率均值接近于1%的低通脹情形�？梢�(jiàn)Mckinnon于1993年提出的“中國(guó)之謎”現(xiàn)象仍在延續(xù)。 在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速貨幣化的同時(shí)，中國(guó)的金融資產(chǎn)經(jīng)歷了迅速擴(kuò)張的過(guò)程，同時(shí)還伴隨著資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的劇烈波動(dòng)。傳統(tǒng)理論認(rèn)為，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格通過(guò)財(cái)富效應(yīng)、托賓q效應(yīng)以及價(jià)格預(yù)期效應(yīng)引起物價(jià)上漲，但是越來(lái)越多的數(shù)據(jù)表明，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上漲常常與價(jià)格穩(wěn)定或是價(jià)格下降相伴隨，尤其是近年來(lái)，我國(guó)物價(jià)和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格表現(xiàn)出明顯的此消彼長(zhǎng)的現(xiàn)象，這與傳統(tǒng)理論是相悖的。以上事實(shí)說(shuō)明，在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程的貨幣化進(jìn)程表現(xiàn)出明顯的復(fù)雜性，貨幣供給、物價(jià)和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間的關(guān)系模糊不清。不但增加了經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，也對(duì)貨幣政策調(diào)控提出了挑戰(zhàn)。 基于上述認(rèn)識(shí)，本文對(duì)貨幣化的相關(guān)理論與概念重新進(jìn)行梳理，并對(duì)中國(guó)的貨幣化進(jìn)程進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。具體內(nèi)容包括：(1)依據(jù)貨幣化的測(cè)度體系對(duì)貨幣化的廣度和深度進(jìn)行了理論分析與實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，并探討了體制改革對(duì)貨幣化進(jìn)程的促進(jìn)作用；(2)將要素貨幣化納入對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣化進(jìn)程的考察范圍，實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡的表現(xiàn)以及對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響；(3)對(duì)促進(jìn)貨幣化進(jìn)程以及導(dǎo)致貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡的外部影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。 通過(guò)實(shí)證分析，得到如下結(jié)論： 1.我國(guó)貨幣深化在穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)。貨幣化指數(shù)的不同增長(zhǎng)速度以及貨幣深化指數(shù)波動(dòng)的主要原因是公眾貨幣需求結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整。低層次的貨幣對(duì)價(jià)格的影響較強(qiáng)，高層次貨幣對(duì)價(jià)格影響較弱，隨著貨幣的深化，貨幣與價(jià)格的關(guān)系將逐漸弱化。 2.我國(guó)要素貨幣化進(jìn)程吸收大量超額貨幣。生產(chǎn)要素由不進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)交易到進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)交易，以及進(jìn)一步到金融市場(chǎng)的交易過(guò)程，產(chǎn)生了大量的貨幣需求。另外，金融抑制導(dǎo)致我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣化與金融化之間主要表現(xiàn)為互補(bǔ)效應(yīng)。金融化率的增長(zhǎng)可以促進(jìn)貨幣化率的增長(zhǎng)，在我國(guó)這一關(guān)系尤為明顯，這也是我國(guó)貨幣化率M2GDP持續(xù)走高的原因之一。 3.我國(guó)貨幣化進(jìn)程于2008年出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)突變。2008年前后產(chǎn)品貨幣化進(jìn)程出現(xiàn)明顯的增速，要素貨幣化進(jìn)程出現(xiàn)明顯的減速。這意味著我國(guó)貨幣化進(jìn)程的非均衡程度出現(xiàn)了調(diào)整，貨幣在實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場(chǎng)中的配置發(fā)生了改變，由此導(dǎo)致我國(guó)貨幣供給引發(fā)價(jià)格上漲的直接效應(yīng)逐漸減弱。 4.貨幣化進(jìn)程的非均衡對(duì)通貨膨脹具有顯著的影響。市場(chǎng)機(jī)制不暢通導(dǎo)致貨幣在經(jīng)濟(jì)中的配置出現(xiàn)明顯的阻滯，使得貨幣不能在實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場(chǎng)之間得到最優(yōu)配置，這是貨幣化非均衡形成的原因。從貨幣化非均衡的角度講，通貨膨脹的產(chǎn)生是公眾放棄貨幣資產(chǎn)和金融資產(chǎn)，轉(zhuǎn)而持有實(shí)物資產(chǎn)，導(dǎo)致實(shí)物資產(chǎn)需求增加的結(jié)果。 5.匯率和匯率預(yù)期對(duì)貨幣化速度和貨幣化進(jìn)程的非均衡均有顯著影響。人民幣幣值的低估和人民幣的升值預(yù)期會(huì)加劇經(jīng)常賬戶和資本賬戶的不平衡程度，不但引起外匯儲(chǔ)備的快速增漲還大幅度的增加了貨幣需求，，因此促進(jìn)了貨幣化速度的快速提升。由于匯率與價(jià)格和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的聯(lián)動(dòng)機(jī)制具有不確定性，在經(jīng)濟(jì)高速貨幣化的同時(shí)，也對(duì)貨幣化的均衡程度產(chǎn)生顯著影響。 6.金融控制對(duì)我國(guó)的高貨幣化率和貨幣化進(jìn)程的非均衡的形成起到至關(guān)重要的作用。利率管制和匯率管制扭曲了貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，對(duì)金融自由化的控制抑制了金融市場(chǎng)功能的發(fā)揮，使得投資和融資過(guò)程過(guò)分依賴于銀行，這些金融控制政策使得貨幣不能得到有效配置。因而，利率和匯率的市場(chǎng)化改革、促進(jìn)金融自由化是緩解我國(guó)高貨幣化問(wèn)題和貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡問(wèn)題的關(guān)鍵所在。 本文的研究與以往以貨幣化為主題的相關(guān)研究最大的不同之處在于以貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡為視角考察了我國(guó)的貨幣化進(jìn)程，檢驗(yàn)了貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡的形成機(jī)制以及貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響機(jī)制。本文研究的結(jié)果對(duì)于建立貨幣與通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)制和推動(dòng)全球流動(dòng)性管理具有積極意義。
[Abstract]:The concept of monetization is often mentioned, but the academic world has not yet given a clear definition. Since the monetary system has gone away from the gold standard, the price of financial assets has risen rapidly, nearly a hundred times, but this is nominal, money does not represent real capital. The global economy is going through increasing money to ensure growth, It is a process of monetization.
From the point of view of China, monetization indicators M0GDP, M2GDP, M2GDP have been rising rapidly, especially in the early period of reform and opening up only 0.32010 years have exceeded 1.8, so far there has not been a downward trend. So long the total amount of money exceeds the total output of the situation is rarely seen in the history of China's economic development has not been in the past. In 90s, the question of the high monetization rate in China had triggered a hot debate.Mckinnon (1993) once predicted that if the Chinese government continued to rely on loans from the state-owned banking system, the Eastern European type of inflation would not be avoided; the analysis of the World Bank (1996) showed that China retained a large amount of storage in the bank by enterprises and residents at the beginning of the reform. The financial surplus formed by deposit savings has avoided inflation while achieving high economic growth. However, as China's monetary balance is increasing, it will be difficult to maintain high growth and low inflation. However, China's monetization rate has not slowed down, and it still does not cause obvious inflation. Inflation, even during the 1997-2006 - year period of about ten years, has a low inflation rate that is close to 1% of the inflation rate. It is clear that the "Chinese mystery", proposed by Mckinnon in 1993, is still continuing.
At the same time of high speed monetization of China's economy, China's financial assets have experienced a process of rapid expansion and accompanied by violent fluctuations in asset prices. The traditional theory holds that the asset price has passed the wealth effect, the Tobin q effect and the price expectation effect caused the price rise, but more and more data show that the price of assets is rising. It is often accompanied by price stability or price decline, especially in recent years, the price and asset price of our country has shown an obvious phenomenon, which is contrary to the traditional theory. The above facts show that the Monetization Process in the process of economic development in our country shows obvious complexity, money supply, price and asset prices. The relationship is blurred. It not only increases the operational risk of the economy, but also challenges the adjustment and control of monetary policy.
Based on the above understanding, this article reviews the related theories and concepts of monetization, and carries out an empirical test on the process of monetization in China. The specific contents include: (1) theoretical analysis and empirical test are carried out on the breadth and depth of monetization according to the measurement system of monetization, and the process of monetization on the process of monetization is discussed. Promoting effect; (2) integrating the monetization of elements into the scope of China's economic monetization, empirically testing the imbalanced performance of Monetization Process and the impact on inflation; (3) the empirical analysis of the external factors affecting the process of monetization and the disequilibrium of the process of monetization.
Through the empirical analysis, we get the following conclusions:
1. the monetary deepening of our country is steadily advancing. The main reason for the different growth rate of the monetization index and the fluctuation of the currency deepening index is the adjustment of the structure of the demand of the public money. The lower level of money has a strong influence on the price. The influence of the high level currency on the price is weak. With the deepening of the currency, the relationship between money and price will gradually weaken.
2. China's factor Monetization Process absorbs a large amount of excess money. The factors of production have produced a large amount of money demand from non entry into market transaction to market transaction and further to the financial market. In addition, financial inhibition leads to the complementation effect between economic monetization and finance in China. Length can promote the growth of monetization rate, especially in China. This is also one of the reasons why China's monetization rate M2GDP continues to rise.
3. the process of monetization in China appeared in 2008. The process of monetization of products appeared obvious growth in 2008. The process of monetization of elements has been decelerated obviously. This means that the non equilibrium degree of the process of monetization in China has been adjusted, and the allocation of money in the real economy and the financial market has changed, which led to me. The direct effect of rising money supply on prices has gradually weakened.
4. the disequilibrium of the process of monetization has a significant impact on inflation. The unimpeded market mechanism leads to a clear blockage in the allocation of money in the economy, which makes it impossible to get the optimal allocation between the real economy and the financial market. This is the original cause of the formation of the imbalanced monetization. Inflation results from the fact that the public abandonment of monetary assets and financial assets, instead of holding physical assets, result in an increase in demand for physical assets.
5. exchange rate and exchange rate expectations have significant impact on the imbalances of monetization speed and the process of monetization. The undervaluation of the value of the RMB and the appreciation of the RMB will increase the imbalance between the current account and the capital account, which not only causes the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves but also increases the demand for money, thus promoting the speed of monetization. Due to the uncertainty of the linkage mechanism of exchange rate and price and asset price, it also has a significant impact on the balance of monetization at the same time of high speed monetization of economy.
6. financial control plays a vital role in the formation of the high monetization rate and the imbalanced formation of the Monetization Process in China. Interest rate control and exchange rate control distort the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The control of financial liberalization inhibits the function of the financial market and makes the investment and financing process excessively dependent on the banks. The control policy makes the currency cannot be effectively configured. Therefore, the market-oriented reform of interest rate and exchange rate and the promotion of financial liberalization are the key to alleviating the problem of high monetization and imbalanced monetization in China.
The biggest difference between this study and the previous research on monetization is that the monetization process is examined in the perspective of the imbalanced Monetization Process, the formation mechanism of the imbalanced Monetization Process and the influence mechanism of the imbalanced Monetization Process on the inflation are examined. Currency and inflation risk linkage mechanism and promoting global liquidity management is of positive significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F822.2

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 張春舒;中國(guó)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化對(duì)M_2/GDP的影響研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2014年

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