本文選題：資本開(kāi)放 + 資本管制　； 參考：《南開(kāi)大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：上世紀(jì)80年代后,一些新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家為了促進(jìn)本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,彌補(bǔ)國(guó)內(nèi)資本的不足,開(kāi)始了資本開(kāi)放的進(jìn)程。但在90年代中期以后,拉美地區(qū)和亞洲地區(qū)新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家先后發(fā)生了金融危機(jī),過(guò)快資本開(kāi)放的新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家在危機(jī)中受到重創(chuàng)。近5年,美歐等國(guó)更是頻繁出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),很多新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家重新實(shí)行了不同程度的資本管制。與此同時(shí),資本自由流動(dòng)是經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的必然趨勢(shì),中國(guó)企業(yè)伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的增強(qiáng)國(guó)際化趨勢(shì)顯現(xiàn)。因此,為了避免重蹈一些新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家的覆轍并且在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化化的浪潮中維持國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)持久穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展,中國(guó)是否應(yīng)該資本開(kāi)放、如何進(jìn)行資本開(kāi)放就成為了我們所面臨的極為緊迫的問(wèn)題。 本文的研究目的在于對(duì)資本開(kāi)放的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響以及資本管制政策的方式與效果進(jìn)行分析,并通過(guò)理論和實(shí)證兩方面的研究,結(jié)合當(dāng)前我國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境為中國(guó)的資本管制政策和措施提供一些建議。本文以資本開(kāi)放與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系為切入點(diǎn),來(lái)探討是否資本開(kāi)放能帶來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)；其次,通過(guò)三個(gè)市場(chǎng)(即貨幣市場(chǎng)、資本市場(chǎng)、商品市場(chǎng))的價(jià)格表現(xiàn),從更微觀(guān)的視角研究了資本在不同市場(chǎng)和不同部門(mén)間的流動(dòng)與配置；然后,通過(guò)研究資本開(kāi)放對(duì)外債和外匯的影響,從宏觀(guān)穩(wěn)定視角分析了資本開(kāi)放與貨幣危機(jī)、債務(wù)危機(jī)和全要素生產(chǎn)率的關(guān)系；接著,總結(jié)了資本自由派與資本管制派的爭(zhēng)論以及資本管制的不同方向、不同手段、不同方式；最后,介紹了中國(guó)資本管制現(xiàn)狀并分析其有效性,并結(jié)合國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境對(duì)中國(guó)資本開(kāi)放的條件與步驟提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。 本文的創(chuàng)新主要體現(xiàn)在如下的兩個(gè)研究過(guò)程中。 首先,在研究是否要資本開(kāi)放的過(guò)程中,本文通過(guò)拓展新古典增長(zhǎng)模型并結(jié)合實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)較高的資本開(kāi)放度并不能帶來(lái)較快的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率,解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率高低的因素是資本開(kāi)放度變動(dòng)的大小,而非資本開(kāi)放度水平的高低。另外,本文構(gòu)建了國(guó)家內(nèi)部出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)分割的小型開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,以考察資本開(kāi)放對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)分割國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響,證明了資本開(kāi)放在長(zhǎng)期可以消除這種結(jié)構(gòu)的扭曲對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的制約,并且通過(guò)比較不同國(guó)別的資本開(kāi)放度、城鄉(xiāng)分化、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)其進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,發(fā)現(xiàn)資本開(kāi)放使城鄉(xiāng)分化較大的國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)幅度更大。最后,從資本流動(dòng)視角通過(guò)對(duì)一些假說(shuō)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),研究了資本開(kāi)放與貨幣市場(chǎng)和資本市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格的關(guān)系,發(fā)現(xiàn)對(duì)于新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家,資本開(kāi)放導(dǎo)致本國(guó)貨幣貶值,并且降低了國(guó)內(nèi)實(shí)際利率,此外,提出了資本流動(dòng)在商品市場(chǎng)中對(duì)價(jià)格影響的三個(gè)渠道,不同的流動(dòng)渠道對(duì)價(jià)格的影響各異。 其次,在研究如何實(shí)現(xiàn)資本開(kāi)放的過(guò)程中,本文通過(guò)分組實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn)如果在資本開(kāi)放帶來(lái)了全要素生產(chǎn)率得到提高,那么開(kāi)放國(guó)就不易發(fā)生貨幣危機(jī)和債務(wù)危機(jī)；反之,其發(fā)生貨幣危機(jī)和債務(wù)危機(jī)的概率就會(huì)增加。另外,通過(guò)一些國(guó)際案例介紹了不同的管制方向、管制手段和管制方式的含義與效果,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)：資本流入管制與資本流出管制是相輔相成的,放棄其中一種手段后另一種管制也會(huì)失效；價(jià)格管制對(duì)市場(chǎng)的干擾相對(duì)較小,但在管制效率上卻遠(yuǎn)不如總量管制；長(zhǎng)期管制需要投入較大的行政成本,但是間斷管制容易被市場(chǎng)規(guī)避造成管制無(wú)效。接著,通過(guò)建立經(jīng)濟(jì)分割的財(cái)富累積模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)分割程度較大的國(guó)家在資本開(kāi)放后,宏觀(guān)政策的制定與實(shí)施的難度都會(huì)加大,并且資本開(kāi)放明顯降低了宏觀(guān)政策效率。 中國(guó)以前保持著較高的資本管制,因此資本開(kāi)放對(duì)中國(guó)而言是一個(gè)嶄新的挑戰(zhàn)。我國(guó)作為新興經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)家,正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)改革的關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻,經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩,必要時(shí)可以通過(guò)資本開(kāi)放刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng),但要多方面利用資本開(kāi)放的契機(jī),加快經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整步伐,使經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展長(zhǎng)久受益。另外,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)相對(duì)其他新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家更為復(fù)雜,地區(qū)差異、城鄉(xiāng)差異等經(jīng)濟(jì)分割現(xiàn)象是我國(guó)面臨的嚴(yán)峻的問(wèn)題。資本開(kāi)放在長(zhǎng)期有助于消除這種結(jié)構(gòu)性扭曲,但短期內(nèi)帶來(lái)的宏觀(guān)政策挑戰(zhàn)比較大,因此,我國(guó)在資本開(kāi)放的同時(shí)要大力縮減地區(qū)間、行業(yè)間的差異。最后,我國(guó)要通過(guò)調(diào)整貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)并加強(qiáng)對(duì)跨國(guó)企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)審計(jì),避免外部失衡的加大以及資本管制政策的失效,并且在提高貨幣沖銷(xiāo)的效率、加大金融機(jī)構(gòu)抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力、改革匯率和利率形成機(jī)制的同時(shí),通過(guò)工資與物價(jià)的調(diào)整促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級(jí)以消除扭曲。
[Abstract]:After the 80s of last century, some emerging market countries began the process of capital opening up to make up the shortage of domestic capital in order to promote the development of their own economy. But after the mid 90s, the financial crisis occurred in Latin America and the emerging market countries in Asia. In the past 5 years, the economic crisis has occurred frequently in the United States, Europe and the United States. Many emerging market countries have reintroduced different levels of capital control. At the same time, the free flow of capital is the inevitable trend of economic globalization. Chinese enterprises are accompanied by the trend of increasing the economic strength and internationalization. Therefore, in order to avoid the repeat of some emerging market countries. Whether China should be open to capital and how to open its capital has become a very urgent problem for us to face in the course of the situation of the family and the sustained and stable development of the domestic economy in the tide of economic globalization.
The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic impact of capital opening and the way and effect of capital control policy. Through two aspects of theoretical and empirical research, it provides some suggestions for China's capital control policies and measures in combination with the current domestic and foreign economic environment. This paper is based on the relationship between capital opening and economic growth. The entry point is to explore whether capital opening can bring economic growth; secondly, through a more microcosmic perspective, the flow and allocation of capital between different markets and different sectors is studied through the three markets (i.e., the currency market, capital market, commodity market); and then, through the study of the influence of capital opening on foreign debt and foreign exchange, The relationship between capital opening and currency crisis, debt crisis and total factor productivity is analyzed from the perspective of macro stability. Then, the debate between capital liberals and capital controls and the different directions, different means and different ways of capital control are summarized. Finally, the current situation of capital control in China is introduced and its effectiveness is analyzed and the country is combined with the country. The internal and external economic environment puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the conditions and steps of China's capital liberalization.
The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following two research processes.
First, in the study of the process of capital opening, this paper, through the expansion of the new classical growth model and combined with empirical test, found that the higher capital openness does not bring a faster economic growth rate. The factor of explaining the economic growth rate is the small change of capital openness, not the level of capital openness. This paper constructs a small open economy model of economic division in the country, in order to investigate the economic impact of capital opening on the economic division of the country. It proves that the opening of capital can eliminate the constraint of the distortion of this structure to economic growth for a long time, and by comparing different countries' capital openness, urban-rural differentiation and economic growth In the end, from the perspective of capital flow, the relationship between capital opening and the price of money market and capital market is studied from the perspective of capital flow, and it is found that for emerging market countries, the opening of capital leads to the devaluation of the country's currency and the reduction of its currency. Lower the domestic real interest rate. In addition, three channels of capital flow affecting commodity prices in the commodity market are put forward. Different mobile channels have different effects on prices.
Secondly, in the study of how to realize capital opening, this paper shows that if the total factor productivity is raised in the opening of capital, the currency crisis and debt crisis will not occur in the open country. On the other hand, the probability of the currency and debt crisis will increase. The case introduces the meaning and effect of different control directions, control means and control methods. It is found that capital inflow control and capital outflow control are complementary, and another kind of control will fail after giving up one of them, and the price control is less interference to the market, but it is far less than the total amount of control efficiency. Regulation requires a large amount of administrative cost for long-term control, but discontinuous control is easily avoided by market avoidance. Then, through the establishment of an accumulated wealth accumulation model of economic division, it is found that after the opening of capital, the difficulty of macro policy formulation and implementation will increase and the capital is open. The efficiency of macro policy has been significantly reduced.
China has maintained a high capital control in the past, so the opening of capital is a new challenge for China. As a emerging economic country, China is at a critical time for economic restructuring, slowing economic growth, and stimulating the growth of the economy through capital opening up, but the opportunity to make use of capital opening up is accelerated in many ways. The pace of economic restructuring has benefited the economic development for a long time. In addition, China's economic structure is more complex than other emerging market countries, regional differences, and urban and rural differences are the serious problems facing China. In the long run, the opening of capital will help to eliminate this structural distortion, but the macro policy challenges brought in the short term At the same time, our country should reduce the difference between regions and industries. Finally, our country should adjust the trade structure and strengthen the financial audit of the transnational enterprises, avoid the increase of external imbalances and the failure of the capital control policy, and improve the efficiency of the currency cancellation and increase the risk resistance of the financial institutions. Efforts should be made to reform the formation mechanism of exchange rate and interest rate, and promote the upgrading of industrial structure through the adjustment of wages and prices, so as to eliminate distortions.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南開(kāi)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F831.5;F832.5;F124

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