本文選題：資本開放 + 資本管制��； 參考：《南開大學》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：上世紀80年代后,一些新興市場國家為了促進本國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,彌補國內(nèi)資本的不足,開始了資本開放的進程。但在90年代中期以后,拉美地區(qū)和亞洲地區(qū)新興市場國家先后發(fā)生了金融危機,過快資本開放的新興市場國家在危機中受到重創(chuàng)。近5年,美歐等國更是頻繁出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟危機,很多新興市場國家重新實行了不同程度的資本管制。與此同時,資本自由流動是經(jīng)濟全球化的必然趨勢,中國企業(yè)伴隨著經(jīng)濟實力的增強國際化趨勢顯現(xiàn)。因此,為了避免重蹈一些新興市場國家的覆轍并且在經(jīng)濟全球化化的浪潮中維持國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟持久穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展,中國是否應該資本開放、如何進行資本開放就成為了我們所面臨的極為緊迫的問題。 本文的研究目的在于對資本開放的經(jīng)濟影響以及資本管制政策的方式與效果進行分析,并通過理論和實證兩方面的研究,結(jié)合當前我國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟環(huán)境為中國的資本管制政策和措施提供一些建議。本文以資本開放與經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系為切入點,來探討是否資本開放能帶來經(jīng)濟的增長；其次,通過三個市場(即貨幣市場、資本市場、商品市場)的價格表現(xiàn),從更微觀的視角研究了資本在不同市場和不同部門間的流動與配置；然后,通過研究資本開放對外債和外匯的影響,從宏觀穩(wěn)定視角分析了資本開放與貨幣危機、債務危機和全要素生產(chǎn)率的關(guān)系；接著,總結(jié)了資本自由派與資本管制派的爭論以及資本管制的不同方向、不同手段、不同方式；最后,介紹了中國資本管制現(xiàn)狀并分析其有效性,并結(jié)合國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟環(huán)境對中國資本開放的條件與步驟提出了相應的政策建議。 本文的創(chuàng)新主要體現(xiàn)在如下的兩個研究過程中。 首先,在研究是否要資本開放的過程中,本文通過拓展新古典增長模型并結(jié)合實證檢驗,發(fā)現(xiàn)較高的資本開放度并不能帶來較快的經(jīng)濟增長率,解釋經(jīng)濟增長率高低的因素是資本開放度變動的大小,而非資本開放度水平的高低。另外,本文構(gòu)建了國家內(nèi)部出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟分割的小型開放經(jīng)濟模型,以考察資本開放對經(jīng)濟分割國家的經(jīng)濟影響,證明了資本開放在長期可以消除這種結(jié)構(gòu)的扭曲對于經(jīng)濟增長的制約,并且通過比較不同國別的資本開放度、城鄉(xiāng)分化、經(jīng)濟增長對其進行驗證,發(fā)現(xiàn)資本開放使城鄉(xiāng)分化較大的國家經(jīng)濟增長幅度更大。最后,從資本流動視角通過對一些假說的實證檢驗,研究了資本開放與貨幣市場和資本市場的價格的關(guān)系,發(fā)現(xiàn)對于新興市場國家,資本開放導致本國貨幣貶值,并且降低了國內(nèi)實際利率,此外,提出了資本流動在商品市場中對價格影響的三個渠道,不同的流動渠道對價格的影響各異。 其次,在研究如何實現(xiàn)資本開放的過程中,本文通過分組實證研究發(fā)現(xiàn)如果在資本開放帶來了全要素生產(chǎn)率得到提高,那么開放國就不易發(fā)生貨幣危機和債務危機；反之,其發(fā)生貨幣危機和債務危機的概率就會增加。另外,通過一些國際案例介紹了不同的管制方向、管制手段和管制方式的含義與效果,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)：資本流入管制與資本流出管制是相輔相成的,放棄其中一種手段后另一種管制也會失效；價格管制對市場的干擾相對較小,但在管制效率上卻遠不如總量管制；長期管制需要投入較大的行政成本,但是間斷管制容易被市場規(guī)避造成管制無效。接著,通過建立經(jīng)濟分割的財富累積模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟分割程度較大的國家在資本開放后,宏觀政策的制定與實施的難度都會加大,并且資本開放明顯降低了宏觀政策效率。 中國以前保持著較高的資本管制,因此資本開放對中國而言是一個嶄新的挑戰(zhàn)。我國作為新興經(jīng)濟國家,正處于經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)改革的關(guān)鍵時刻,經(jīng)濟增速放緩,必要時可以通過資本開放刺激經(jīng)濟的增長,但要多方面利用資本開放的契機,加快經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整步伐,使經(jīng)濟發(fā)展長久受益。另外,中國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)相對其他新興市場國家更為復雜,地區(qū)差異、城鄉(xiāng)差異等經(jīng)濟分割現(xiàn)象是我國面臨的嚴峻的問題。資本開放在長期有助于消除這種結(jié)構(gòu)性扭曲,但短期內(nèi)帶來的宏觀政策挑戰(zhàn)比較大,因此,我國在資本開放的同時要大力縮減地區(qū)間、行業(yè)間的差異。最后,我國要通過調(diào)整貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)并加強對跨國企業(yè)的財務審計,避免外部失衡的加大以及資本管制政策的失效,并且在提高貨幣沖銷的效率、加大金融機構(gòu)抗風險能力、改革匯率和利率形成機制的同時,通過工資與物價的調(diào)整促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級以消除扭曲。
[Abstract]:After the 80s of last century, some emerging market countries began the process of capital opening up to make up the shortage of domestic capital in order to promote the development of their own economy. But after the mid 90s, the financial crisis occurred in Latin America and the emerging market countries in Asia. In the past 5 years, the economic crisis has occurred frequently in the United States, Europe and the United States. Many emerging market countries have reintroduced different levels of capital control. At the same time, the free flow of capital is the inevitable trend of economic globalization. Chinese enterprises are accompanied by the trend of increasing the economic strength and internationalization. Therefore, in order to avoid the repeat of some emerging market countries. Whether China should be open to capital and how to open its capital has become a very urgent problem for us to face in the course of the situation of the family and the sustained and stable development of the domestic economy in the tide of economic globalization.
The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic impact of capital opening and the way and effect of capital control policy. Through two aspects of theoretical and empirical research, it provides some suggestions for China's capital control policies and measures in combination with the current domestic and foreign economic environment. This paper is based on the relationship between capital opening and economic growth. The entry point is to explore whether capital opening can bring economic growth; secondly, through a more microcosmic perspective, the flow and allocation of capital between different markets and different sectors is studied through the three markets (i.e., the currency market, capital market, commodity market); and then, through the study of the influence of capital opening on foreign debt and foreign exchange, The relationship between capital opening and currency crisis, debt crisis and total factor productivity is analyzed from the perspective of macro stability. Then, the debate between capital liberals and capital controls and the different directions, different means and different ways of capital control are summarized. Finally, the current situation of capital control in China is introduced and its effectiveness is analyzed and the country is combined with the country. The internal and external economic environment puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the conditions and steps of China's capital liberalization.
The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following two research processes.
First, in the study of the process of capital opening, this paper, through the expansion of the new classical growth model and combined with empirical test, found that the higher capital openness does not bring a faster economic growth rate. The factor of explaining the economic growth rate is the small change of capital openness, not the level of capital openness. This paper constructs a small open economy model of economic division in the country, in order to investigate the economic impact of capital opening on the economic division of the country. It proves that the opening of capital can eliminate the constraint of the distortion of this structure to economic growth for a long time, and by comparing different countries' capital openness, urban-rural differentiation and economic growth In the end, from the perspective of capital flow, the relationship between capital opening and the price of money market and capital market is studied from the perspective of capital flow, and it is found that for emerging market countries, the opening of capital leads to the devaluation of the country's currency and the reduction of its currency. Lower the domestic real interest rate. In addition, three channels of capital flow affecting commodity prices in the commodity market are put forward. Different mobile channels have different effects on prices.
Secondly, in the study of how to realize capital opening, this paper shows that if the total factor productivity is raised in the opening of capital, the currency crisis and debt crisis will not occur in the open country. On the other hand, the probability of the currency and debt crisis will increase. The case introduces the meaning and effect of different control directions, control means and control methods. It is found that capital inflow control and capital outflow control are complementary, and another kind of control will fail after giving up one of them, and the price control is less interference to the market, but it is far less than the total amount of control efficiency. Regulation requires a large amount of administrative cost for long-term control, but discontinuous control is easily avoided by market avoidance. Then, through the establishment of an accumulated wealth accumulation model of economic division, it is found that after the opening of capital, the difficulty of macro policy formulation and implementation will increase and the capital is open. The efficiency of macro policy has been significantly reduced.
China has maintained a high capital control in the past, so the opening of capital is a new challenge for China. As a emerging economic country, China is at a critical time for economic restructuring, slowing economic growth, and stimulating the growth of the economy through capital opening up, but the opportunity to make use of capital opening up is accelerated in many ways. The pace of economic restructuring has benefited the economic development for a long time. In addition, China's economic structure is more complex than other emerging market countries, regional differences, and urban and rural differences are the serious problems facing China. In the long run, the opening of capital will help to eliminate this structural distortion, but the macro policy challenges brought in the short term At the same time, our country should reduce the difference between regions and industries. Finally, our country should adjust the trade structure and strengthen the financial audit of the transnational enterprises, avoid the increase of external imbalances and the failure of the capital control policy, and improve the efficiency of the currency cancellation and increase the risk resistance of the financial institutions. Efforts should be made to reform the formation mechanism of exchange rate and interest rate, and promote the upgrading of industrial structure through the adjustment of wages and prices, so as to eliminate distortions.

【學位授予單位】：南開大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F831.5;F832.5;F124

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